Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[SnowHole413]

Lock it

[WintersComing]

Is eastern CT, MA and Ri getting porked due to dry slot?


.

[EastonSN+]

How much further west can this thing go?

Down to 6 inches in SW coastal CT.

It does resemble a more tucked Dec 2000

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Eh... kind of continuing the 18z trend.

Im starting to think this isn’t just another cold rain here. Has that look.

This isn't a coast kind of look. It's a classic early phase look. I have to think the euro comes west a bit, although NAM/Euro would work. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still say the phase will trend later eventually...maybe last minute trend..

I’m not that good to say when the phase happens but with a blocked flow, one would think earlier phase is at least a likely solution. If it was a proggy flow, later is more likely.

[#NoPoles]

I'm calling rain dry slot 50 degrees for me onto the cape

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

His much further west can this thing go?

Down to 6 inches in SW coastal CT.

It does resemble a more tucked Dec 2000

This is probably the left goalpost while euro op was the right. 

[bobbutts]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lock that in right now.

almost 2 inches qpf, all in the form of snow at kcon

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not that good to say when the phase happens but with a blocked a flow, one would think earlier phase is at least a likely solution. If it was a proggy flow, later is more likely.

I've seen plenty of bog dogs trend towards a later phase in booked up patterns....March 2001 comes to mind.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn't a coast kind of look. It's a classic early phase look. I have to think the euro comes west a bit, although NAM/Euro would work. 

Hard to imagine the euro isn’t coming west. A compromise would still work here. Shift the NAM 50 miles east we are okay.

Jerry is right... looks like a warmer Boxing Day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is probably the left goalpost while euro op was the right. 

I'd weight it more towards the EURO....don't think its 50/50.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is probably the left goalpost while euro op was the right. 

I hope. There were some really tucked GEFS

[Buddy1987]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is probably the left goalpost while euro op was the right. 

That is true man. The NAM has always had that over amping of systems if you will, so I guess we will see if it is a fluke or if it is sniffing something out here shortly.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting… This NAM run is  actually phasing that n stream now

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting… This NAM run is  actually phasing that n stream now

Yup.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd weight it more towards the EURO....don't think its 50/50.

I never weighed it just stating where the kicker can score the winning fg. that said split it down the middle is fine by me.

[dendrite]

Seems the earlier we get interaction with the canadian vort dropping in the sooner the fuji slingshots the low north. Eventually we get the full phase and the whole thing comes to a crawl northeastward.

[dryslot]

This is probably the ampy nammy run that is comes up with often.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

almost 2 inches qpf, all in the form of snow at kcon

 

day 3 NAM...right where we want to be.

[ineedsnow]

Looks great to me..

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Seems the earlier we get interaction with the canadian vort dropping in the sooner the fuji slingshots the low north. Eventually we get the full phase and the whole thing comes to a crawl northeastward.

Closes off over the elbow @H5 and just will creep north or stack before it opens back up it seemed.

[WxBlue]

Walking on the thin line here with that new NAM run.

[EastonSN+]

Track looks similar to last March's big noreaster.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Is eastern CT, MA and Ri getting porked due to dry slot?


.

If 11 inches is porked here I guess so. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Track looks similar to last March's big noreaster.

Surface yea but we has blocking this time and the mid levels dont go from nepa through the berks.

850 low track is ideal, maybe a hair close, but we have wiggle room for more east tracks now.

[dryslot]

Looks like the bar is being set quite high, Good recipe for disappointment.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like the bar is being set quite high, Good recipe for disappointment.

Who set the bar high and what is it? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nevermind, winterscoming is upset with a foot. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nevermind, winterscoming is upset with a foot. 

Some have been upset with 6, Now 12, Everyone wants there modeled snow output, Ah not happening for all.

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Some have been upset with 6, Now 12, Everyone wants there modeled snow output, Ah not happening for all.

I’m not even snowblowing anything less than 18”. It’s one big meh.