Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize people probably don't care ...and I'm not sure they really should, but that JMA model is quintessentially perfect - really...

It takes a 999 mb low over the coastal Del Marva, and deepens it on a track that takes just NW of the BM and ends up 988 mb just off Cape Cod out there ... the whole way, shedding about 12 DAM of heights. 

For all the peregrinations along our travels through time and adventures with these models,. ... hell if it didn't just come down to a solution like that.  Open, closed...

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Blend the 2. We glue 

 Predictor of Paste the Sultan of Snow, would you agree it's a snowy week for whom you preach? Your clients await anxiously.

[weathafella]

That 10 day map would be fun eh? 

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If both events play out that way, my Wachusett pass will be put to good use

Nice Euro run for many

Poor Jimmy.

[dryslot]

Starting to get into Nam range as far as time frame goes from here on in.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Predictor of Paste the Sultan of Snow, would you agree it's a snowy week for whom you preach? Your clients await anxiously.

Round 1 tonight.

Yes

[mahk_webstah]

One of our best most grounded and consistent posters  should go to triple digits by the 14th if not by this Thursday...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Starting to get into Nam range as far as time frame goes from here on in.

And it will make everyone happy at some point. 

[eyewall]

The Euro says we whiff here on the midweek event for the most part.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

One of our best most grounded and consistent posters  should go to triple digits by the 14th if not by this Thursday...

Total
Alex	Bretton Woods	New Hampshire	113.65
J.Spin	Waterbury	Vermont	108.50
backedgeapproaching	Manchester	Vermont	88.80
dryslot	Lewiston	Maine	79.80
wxeyeNH	Bridgewater	New Hampshire	73.00
klw	Norwich	Vermont	72.90
Lava Rock	Raymond	Maine	69.45
tamarack	New Sharon	Maine	63.90
dendrite	Northfield	New Hampshire	63.10
WxBlue	Dover	New Hampshire	60.50

 

Several in range...

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And it will make everyone happy at some point. 

I use it for a time frame that we are inside 3.5 days now, I'll wait until we are 1 day out to use if for anything else.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

He talking about Dryslut.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still think ens have use. op is the right goalpost. Late blossom is real though, not denying that.

Its not going much west of the OP with thay block imo.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not going much west of the OP with thay block imo.

It's hard to say.  The Euro OP low ends up north of me eventually after cutting into Maine.  It has the ol left hook type track.  

Without the block that's a Hudson Valley runner.  Trough is pretty negative.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not going much west of the OP with thay block imo.

A more pressed look above would also argue for an earlier phase. Plenty of little nuances that can make a big difference here, as you know. To be clear Im not saying that solution cant happen. We all know the captain obvious “anything can happen” dumbed down logic. But I try to go beyond that and make attempts to figure it out...and learn from it. Regardless, fun tracking times ahead....I can see some big solutions printed in the next 10 cycles. 

[wxsniss]

Euro ensemble members and mean looked a little more tucked than 12z

 

Pretty close to control

 

Very good consensus compared to last storm

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A more pressed look above would also argue for an earlier phase. Plenty of little nuances that can make a big difference here, as you know. To be clear Im not saying that solution cant happen. We all know the captain obvious “anything can happen” dumbed down logic. But I try to go beyond that and make attempts to figure it out...and learn from it. Regardless, fun tracking times ahead....I can see some big solutions printed in the next 10 cycles. 

Southbury Weather Center subscription renewed.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Euro ensemble members and mean looked a little more tucked than 12z

Looks similar to GFS at least as it's under and passing SNE.  But I haven't looked at individuals to see any cluster trends.  

The better news for all is the GGEM complete whiff is out to lunch.

[Dpb1983]

Doing power restoration for National Grid.  Is this threat looking like a heavy wet snow along with the wind?  Just need to know if I’ll be home for my kids to graduate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's hard to say.  The Euro OP low ends up north of me eventually after cutting into Maine.  It has the ol left hook type track.  

Without the block that's a Hudson Valley runner.  Trough is pretty negative.

I don't care what it does beyond my latitude...but down here, it's tougher to go much farther west.

[Connecticut Appleman]

Looking at Euro ensemble member low locations at hr 84, the mean location looks skewed east in comparison to the displayed low positions.  There are about 6 members with lows half way to Europe. (Looking at it in Weatherbell so I can't post it).

My question is do they have a way to throw outliers out of the mean position calculation?  

[powderfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care what it does beyond my latitude...but down here, it's tougher to go much farther west.

Yeah it just seemed like depending on the block, it gets stuck under it and the block actually forces it west eventually.  Maybe if the upper level ridge pressed down more southeast it may stop it from going east if that makes sense.  Now if the block was identical to how it was the last one storm it wouldn't come close.

I get what your saying though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it just seemed like depending on the block, it gets stuck under it and the block actually forces it west eventually.  Maybe if the upper level ridge pressed down more southeast it may stop it from going east if that makes sense.  Now if the block was identical to how it was the last one storm it wouldn't come close.

I get what your saying though.

Yea, we would need to see that....it will probably happen further north.

[blizzard24]

Some weather people say that ecwmf model low  was more east for wed storm because it sees the weakeness in the blocking and low to the northeast . That monday runs likely  go more west track  closer the sne coast than today runs.

[Zeus]

5 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

Some weather people say that ecwmf model low  was more east for wed storm because it sees the weakeness in the blocking and low to the northeast . That monday runs likely  go more west track  closer the sne coast than today runs.

Pearls of blizzdom.

[dryslot]

The lid on the crypt just squeaked open.

[powderfreak]

Blizz24 post followed by Zeus... must be game time.

The EPS lows.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sweet EPS mean track

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Decent spread but it doesn’t look like it’s leaning one way or the other. Clusters east and west.

A concern i do have is this gets going just a hair late and turns into a Congrats Maine system while we score 4” here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

yea, very nice look with some tastey left of the mean tracks.