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Upstate/Eastern New York


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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

About 1.5” overnight, new 3k nam still has over inch of precipitation, most coming between 6z wed-6z Thursday..

Pretty consistent with previous runs from what I can see. Will be interesting to see how much of that accumulates.  UVV not huge but Pretty well aligned to DGZ here and enough moisture. Looks like a 24 hr period of 1/4-1/2" per hr rates near us I think.

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54 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I don’t know what to make of this forecast. It’s a mix of synoptic and LES. It’s too warm and too windy for traditional LES. Also, the NWS is forecasting West winds throughout the duration (wrong) which would not favor South shore. Some of the models print out huge amts, 16”. Others, like the GFS showing nada. IDK. If I had to guess, I’d side with a conservative forecast. Couple slushy inches in the grass. I’ll gladly be wrong. 

You have grass still??? I haven't seen my lawn since March 1st!

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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

EPS continues to trend colder during mid Month..

Euro OP had a max of 34 and a min of -3 over the next 10 days, but no precipitation after tomorrow which obviously can change..

 

Not sure about KBUF but KBGM AFDs have been mentioning moderating temps with highs in the 40s this weekend.  Maybe in Scranton-WB I suppose...

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No. No grass in Roc. I meant on cold surfaces. We have a 5” snow pack. It’s dense too. 

Certainly, the eastern zones look to do pretty well. Especially any elevation near Syracuse. Skanneatles was my jackpot zone. KROC might see 2-4” total. Not bad for this late and not really synoptic. The NAM 3k appears to have dropped ROC from 1.25”-.75. So almost 50%. But I didn’t look real close. It will be interesting to see what ARW does. 

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Have to say, looking at NE forum, mesoscale banding with these rapidly developing nor'easters is maddening for many.  Fortunately, in the rare cases we get them with synoptic storms, the differential between have's and have-nots doesn't seem to be as dramatic.  Though, I guess we get a similar effect from lake effect, which is more frequent and maybe more maddening when you're within 5 miles of a good LE single band and sucking wind.

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18 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Have to say, looking at NE forum, mesoscale banding with these rapidly developing nor'easters is maddening for many.  Fortunately, in the rare cases we get them with synoptic storms, the differential between have's and have-nots doesn't seem to be as dramatic.  Though, I guess we get a similar effect from lake effect, which is more frequent and maybe more maddening when you're within 5 miles of a good LE single band and sucking wind.

Lake effect is much crazier. 90" and 2" within 10-15 miles. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I remember back in Nov 2014 getting scolded from the NE crew for measuring every 4-5 hours instead of 6 because I couldn't keep up with the snowfall rates and shoveling. Over there they measure every hour. :lol:

yeah, pretty sure not a lot of rigor being put into some measurements.  For purposes of this place, I don't strictly adhere to 6 hrs for posting purposes but...for reporting to NWS I generally do, but then again I'm not ever going to set any snowfall rate records.  Total snowfall i report to CoCoRaHS pretty rigorously.  

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Looking at radar, appears that the precip shield is beginning to pivot NW and fill in a bit, as pretty well depicted on various modeling.  Should be back in the game around SYR by later today.  Not sure that we will see better rates till later tonight or tomorrow.  Just a bit of snizzle in downtown thusfar today since 8 am.  As expected.

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Pretty good consensus between the mesoscale models, last day I’ll be able to post wb maps, might as well make the most of it lol

 

 

what does wxbell get for monthly subscrip?  I may get one for next winter.  TIA.

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12 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Anybody see Jim Cantore in Plymouth, MA measuring snow horizontally on a telephone pole?  He was in a slush storm earlier this morning. 

If I didn't respect Jim as a knowledgeable meteorologist and one that is not afraid to embrace his weenie-side, i'd root for a rogue wave to wash him out to sea.  And there are so many others ahead of him on that wish list... ;) 

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I wonder if he cringes at some of the stuff he has to do for television. 

5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

If I didn't respect Jim as a knowledgeable meteorologist and one that is not afraid to embrace his weenie-side, i'd root for a rogue wave to wash him out to sea.  And there are so many others ahead of him on that wish list... ;) 

 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I saw deathband 52 times in the NE forum earlier today. They don't even know what deathband is until they go inside an intense LES band. 

I'm not going there.  But, in-house models were predicting upwards of 75-100. ;)

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