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Upstate/Eastern New York


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27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

What fascinates me is we have now had continuous snow cover otg from March 1st to present and that will persist right through the 3rd week of March and possibly beyond.. When is the last time, if any we can say that?

In a “good” winter, or at least Feb into March, I achieve peak snowpile depth at my mailbox in the first week or two of March and then we start slowly melting down by the third or fourth week of March. Our depth hasn’t been as impressive as some early March periods, but agree the duration should go on pretty long, as you mentioned.  

If I am to believe local NWS, despite NWP estimates of 1.1 - 1.2” Liquid Equivalent snowfall, we won’t really get any snow to accumulate this week as the March sun, downsloping, limited snow growth, cellular lake enhancement, wind shear, diurnal influences, high winds, light winds, road salt, and locusts will apparently conspire to limit accumulations to nuisance amounts other than on some select ridge tops.  In fact, I’m surprised Flood Watches aren’t being issued.

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23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

In a “good” winter, or at least Feb into March, I achieve peak snowpile depth at my mailbox in the first week or two of March and then we start slowly melting down by the third or fourth week of March. Our depth hasn’t been as impressive as some early March periods, but agree the duration should go on pretty long, as you mentioned.  

If I am to believe local NWS, despite NWP estimates of 1.1 - 1.2” Liquid Equivalent snowfall, we won’t really get any snow to accumulate this week as the March sun, downsloping, limited snow growth, cellular lake enhancement, wind shear, diurnal influences, high winds, light winds, road salt, and locusts will apparently conspire to limit accumulations to nuisance amounts other than on some select ridge tops.  In fact, I’m surprised Flood Watches aren’t being issued.

Sure hate to see ya like that Mr. Taggart. Maybe this will pep you up.

Given the considerations above, and the continued upward trend in
QPF for the 12Z and 18Z model guidance, have expanded the winter
weather advisory to cover the entire CWA. For the new areas added,
it will run from early Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.
It is possible that some areas may approach warning criteria snow if
the more aggressive 12KM NAM and 3KM NAM solutions verify, but
confidence is not high enough yet to jump on warnings for parts of
the area. Expect storm totals to reach 5-8 inches for much of the
area, with local amounts of a 10-14 inches across the higher terrain
east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The lowest accumulations are likely
to be along the Lake Erie shore and Niagara River (including Buffalo
and Niagara Falls) where influence from northwest upslope flow is
lowest, and also along the Genesee River in Livingston and Allegany
counties (due to downsloping).
 

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9 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

Sure hate to see ya like that Mr. Taggart. Maybe this will pep you up.

Given the considerations above, and the continued upward trend in
QPF for the 12Z and 18Z model guidance, have expanded the winter
weather advisory to cover the entire CWA. For the new areas added,
it will run from early Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.
It is possible that some areas may approach warning criteria snow if
the more aggressive 12KM NAM and 3KM NAM solutions verify, but
confidence is not high enough yet to jump on warnings for parts of
the area. Expect storm totals to reach 5-8 inches for much of the
area, with local amounts of a 10-14 inches across the higher terrain
east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The lowest accumulations are likely
to be along the Lake Erie shore and Niagara River (including Buffalo
and Niagara Falls) where influence from northwest upslope flow is
lowest, and also along the Genesee River in Livingston and Allegany
counties (due to downsloping).
 

LOL. Headley!  

This looks like NWS trying to protect their phoney baloney jobs!

snowing and accumulating here, but not on roads.  Thus it’s not happening.

and that’s for KBUF. We melt here, across the river.

Harumph!

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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

LOL. Headley!  

This looks like NWS trying to protect their phoney baloney jobs!

snowing and accumulating here, but not on roads.  Thus it’s not happening.

Harumph!

Dock that meteorologist a days pay for napping on the job. and it's Hedley. haha I think we do ok with this one. Would not be surprised if we go to WSW for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Time will tell. Still think Wed. am is rough until the sun gets higher.

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I can't post it but the radar out of KBUF is pretty kool to look at if anyone is interested.  The winds are from the SW to their South, From the Nortwest to the North of the city and their from the East to their East! Yeah that sounds about right as I had to read it to myself to make sure it sounded right, lol.

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