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Upstate/Eastern New York


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58 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I can't believe they're already dropping that horrific ****ing mixture of dirt and salt all over the place already.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Where? It's not going to snow here other than some light SNSH. Fear not, the brainstrust in Albany have i81S and I90E closed to trucks from SYR to BGM/ALB also, cuz...2-4" of snow. LOFL. #sad

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Pretty big bust for CNY. Sucks for them I’m sure. 

The models have a strong tendency to bring these EC storms too far West. It happens everytime. We gotta remember to adjust those 24-36 hr maps East by about 100 miles or so (200 this time). 

Winter appears to be over unless you live on the Tug. Hopefully we get one more surprise. Peace! 

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Pretty disappointing end if this is the last of the synoptic white for this winter. Say what want about how bad the euro has dropped off but clearly it still has a leg up on the rest of the modeling as more often than not it seems to still outperform the rest. Certainly it has with this storm... atleast as it concerns upstate ny, with its consistent eastern most track.

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Precip is falling, but not quite sure of the type, lol!  Precip shield is blossoming as well, pretty rapidly I might add, to our South and East, and I'm pretty confident that we will see some heavier returns cross the area some time this evening, through the overnight.  Nam's composite reflectivity data really doesn't match up with the current surface map nor does the H850 LP.

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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Precip is falling, but not quite sure of the type, lol!  Precip shield is blossoming as well, pretty rapidly I might add, to our South and East, and I'm pretty confident that we will see some heavier returns cross the area some time this evening, through the overnight.  Nam's composite reflectivity data really doesn't match up with the current surface map nor does the H850 LP.

Yes the precip over PA is solid with a good amount to the west.....I'm not counting this one out, based on the current radar picture.

 

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8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Pretty disappointing end if this is the last of the synoptic white for this winter. Say what want about how bad the euro has dropped off but clearly it still has a leg up on the rest of the modeling as more often than not it seems to still outperform the rest. Certainly it has with this storm... atleast as it concerns upstate ny, with its consistent eastern most track.

DST comes back this Sunday, so we get an extra hr of light, so snow chances will severely get diminished after this occurs.

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IDK about anyone else but its legitimately snowing here, allbeit lightly, but its definitely snow thats falling and was not expecting anything till at least this afternoon at the earliest but surprise surprise an early arrival.  Does it actually become the Western cut-off pt, as it continues to head West of here.

Is it coming down by you CNY cause its definitely -SN here presently and it doesn't look like its a simple sn/sh either.

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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Did I say something wrong? I'm serious as I thought it was this upcoming weekend or am I way off base, lol?

Pretty sure you are being sarcastic about the extra hour of light and snow chances...And yeah it's this weekend overnight sat/sun.

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Don't know about anyone else but this looks interesting for the immediate Syracuse area and the surrounding villages.  It seems to just be blossoming and forning overhead as it slowly moves to the West, where it gets to and how far West it gets is the magic Question right now.  I'm thinking Wayne county somewhere but it looks like its going to be a very slow process to get there.

5aa00eb1dc7d6_RAD_KTYX_N0R_ANI(6).gif.efe268aea647d34753ab11904eec6ea7.gif

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Pretty sure you are being sarcastic about the extra hour of light and snow chances...And yeah it's this weekend overnight sat/sun.

Of course cuz, as I used to rag on anyone who said such nonsense.  If it snows hard enough and its cold enough aloft then itll snow whenever it wants to including into the Month of May as its happened only once or twice since I been up here.

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It's actually looks like it has gotten a bit heavier around here as it continues to blossom into a rather large area of precip!  Temp has also wet-bulbed to 31 where I am but I suspect as returns get a bit lighter we'll go over to a  rn/sn mix.  I'm like what I'm seeing thats for sure.

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

3k at 11am, has us snow most of the day, just doesn’t add up to much..The time period from Friday am-Friday pm has about 1/2” LE and still snowing..

1B2F8D06-8A62-4005-A02F-19F54600DB96.png

There also looks like there's quite a few dry areas down near SE NY around rt17 Monticello area but the Catskills are going to get absolutely demolished, seriously!

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Its currently 32F where I am and the dp is 27F so there's more room for a slight drop in temp due to wet-bulb processes. We should end up right around 30 -31F but only if the precip gets heavy enough will the column cool enough to get down that low, but it has to at least SN cause I'm not sure we see any S+ so.  

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071347Z - 071745Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
   likely to develop later this morning.  Locally higher rates (2+
   inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the
   frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts.

   DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low
   60 mi ESE of WAL.  Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range
   from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC.      

   The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile
   subfreezing except immediately near the surface.  The 500mb
   temperature was -25.5 C.  Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the
   mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of
   13-14Z.  As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level
   ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar
   cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a
   plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will
   combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright
   convection.  Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE
   northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the
   early afternoon.  Models indicate the development of strong
   frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z.  As
   the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically
   juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation
   rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25
   inch.

   Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a
   significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+
   inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp
   rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established.  Eastern
   PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation
   type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from
   the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ.  Higher
   elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the
   low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea
   level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates.

 

Meanwhile the Nam dropped almost 3/4 of the precip over the Poconos.  Just proving scientifically that the NAM clearly went to **** at 06Z and it remains there and its flat out wrong, plain and simple.

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33 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Sn to at times S+ but mostly Sn right now and the flake size has indeed increased to a nice accumulating snow, if it can drop below that magical number of 32F, then we could get something going but if not we have to wait till at least this evening! 

Window dressing snow in Syracuse itself. Not accumulating on anything despite decent flake size. March sun, warm ground, light rate, climate change, blah blah blah.

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With DST coming this will only get worse... ;)

KBGM AFD snip... A day/night trend has become established in terms of modeling with data showing a westward shift during the day and eastward shift with runs that came in during the night. Modeling has been struggling with this system, typical for miller B low tracks.

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