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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Starting to think this is a 10 to 20 area wide starting tonight and ending Saturday morning with some lull periods. Having a hard time finding a time period with the greatest chance of warning criteria snow(barring a westward shift tomorrow afternoon and evening with heavy snow axis). Thursday night and Friday morning might be the worst around here drivewise.

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2018030612

Top left click top analogs

Gives complete breakdown of them, including notable snowfall amounts, impactful events. It's my favorite weather website. You can use it for severe weather, snowstorms, anything basically. 

It gives the indices relative to the upper level pattern that coincides with the synoptic storm. Correlation coefficient as well. 

Wow. Thanks!  00Z NAM running. The most important run of our lives...this week. ;)

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My ne.wx forecast entries. I think I went too high at PHL and BWI but other than that I'm reasonably confident. Total thru friday...

CAR: 8.5
BGR: 11.0
PWM: 12.3
CON: 14
BTV: 7.1
BOS: 3
HYA: 1.3
ORH: 12.1
PVD: 4.0
BDR: 9.5
BDL: 9.8
ALB: 13.3
BGM: 6.5
ISP: 5
JFK: 7.8
ABE: 12.5
MDT: 5.5
PHL: 9.5
ACY: 0.8
EWR: 8.5
BWI: 3.5
IAD: 0
DCA: 0
SBY: 0
RIC: 0
ORF: 0
RDU: 0

bonus: SYR 5.1

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4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

00Z GFS...wow. It’s east and qpf really scaled back. My forecast is toast.

Most 00Z models with a sizable shift east (relatively) this late in game. NWS Albany won't be anywhere close to their 12-18 range at this rate. Especially from ALB on north.

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3 minutes ago, Stash said:

Most 00Z models with a sizable shift east (relatively) this late in game. NWS Albany won't be anywhere close to their 12-18 range at this rate. Especially from ALB on north.

Yeah...true.  If Euro follows suit with track and qpf...this one is in jeopardy of being a sub or marginal warning event for a lot of the Warning area in NY.

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28 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah...true.  If Euro follows suit with track and qpf...this one is in jeopardy of being a sub or marginal warning event for a lot of the Warning area in NY.

Big shifts so late in the game all around.  New climate regime reminding ENY to remember their role after last week's deviation from the norm, haha.  I don't mind it as much as I used to though, and some in Eastern New England really wanted this one after last week's storm.  I would expect the map to look much different tomorrow barring any surprises from the Euro.

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4 minutes ago, Stash said:

Big shifts so late in the game all around.  New climate regime reminding ENY to remember their role after last week's deviation from the norm, haha.  I don't mind it as much as I used to though, and some in Eastern New England really wanted this one after last week's storm.  I would expect the map to look much different tomorrow barring any surprises from the Euro.

There's still thermal and possible dryslot issues for SNE on this one esp along i95 to i84 corridor but they won't  be shutout like last friday, other than the Cape to SE CT.  Even BOS proper may scrape out a few slushy inches.  Will be interesting to see Euro qpf. I assume its going to stay east somewhere out past the benchmark where it usually is. Question will be it's intensity as NWP trend is generally a bit weaker.

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Long duration wwa issued 

 

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations through the long
  event of 10 to 18 inches are expected. Greatest snow
  accumulations in a 12-hour period likely Thursday and Thursday
  night.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. Be prepared
  for reduced visibilities at times
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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The 3km drops close to 28" in the 5 boroughs, that's not gonna happen, not this time anyway.

Next week's storm looks supressed. Eurotrash has it down off JAX.  By day 10 we are getting the golf sticks out.  So...whatever we get thurs and Friday may be about it for the season...

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