rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 At first limited glance. This next one should be much less in western zones. GFS does show the coastal retrograde into Maine which might be interesting. As of now, we rely on a weak, rather N primary. I’m not a fan. Yet...Syracuse East might do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 With the pattern and climo next 2 weeks look fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 hours ago, tim123 said: It was a blizzard. Nws in buffalo hates predicting or forecasting snow for rochester. Been that way for 30 years NWS in Buffalo is very averse to blizzard warnings anywhere in its zones. But then again, nearly every location in WNY would verify a blizzard at least once a season and probably many more times than that for most. On the other extreme, BOX hands out blizzard warnings like the pope hands out wafers. I’ll take the actual blizzard conditions without the headline over fake news blizzards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wouldn't mind going back to Catskills mid week but i dont see the set up for a real biggie there unless something freaky happens w that piece of energy trailing the system 29" at hunter mtn. First 24' was all at 32F at 1800' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12z EPS wants to really keep that LP tucked in. A bit further west and we can talk. I don’t really see what would do that. Anyone? Until then, Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 12z EPS wants to really keep that LP tucked in. A bit further west and we can talk. I don’t really see what would do that. Anyone? Until then, Nah. Not gonna get too concerned about qpf panels 4 days out but if that stays tucked in ala GFS and GEM...its pretty much game on for at least ROC/SYR and on east to ALB. GEM with a 987mb slp over Montauk at 120 hrs looks pretty effing enticing. Euro doesn't look bad either, perhaps a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Ripped from Powderfreak (thanks) over on the NE forum. EPS shows the potential. Ways to go though. Again, a few moving pieces, esp the northern stream. I saw that GFS spaghetti last night, 00Z, and it was quite interesting in offering support of another quasi capture scenario. There's a lot of model support for this one right now. Even the NAVGEM has something in pretty tight and it's usually pushing systems out to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Stronger negative nao would tuck it in more dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Its on its way, no concern from me at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Stronger negative nao would tuck it in more dave. Yeah and it'll also send it down to VA, lol! NAO is negative enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Talk about some blue bomb action, look st this panel over S.C. Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Oh Canada! What are the chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snow Totals: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Highest was 25.4" in W Wyoming county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Oh Canada! What are the chances? I love the Canadian model, honestly, it’s a great model. I’m not biting. Not yet. Let’s see the Euro. Im expecting a weak primary that rolls to near Buf and then transfers to Delmarva and scoots to the stupid freaking benchmark. Giving NYC a silly inch. But leaving WNY out of anything real. But damn, Canada gives me hope. We are inside that climo window. I can feel long distance eye rolls by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 My totals were close. Just sayin. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lake enhancement never happened for Roc. As a couple of you observed, it was too warm. It was a wetter scenario. We got 10-16” region wide, but came up short my 18” prediction. Syracuse did well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Really cold here this morning with the snowpack and clear skies. 9 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Be crazy if KBUF hits 100" with virtually no LES events above 6" Damm we really nickle'd and dime'd our way towards avg snowfall this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I love the Canadian model, honestly, it’s a great model. I’m not biting. Not yet. Let’s see the Euro. Im expecting a weak primary that rolls to near Buf and then transfers to Delmarva and scoots to the stupid freaking benchmark. Giving NYC a silly inch. But leaving WNY out of anything real. But damn, Canada gives me hope. We are inside that climo window. I can feel long distance eye rolls by the way. Here was the previous night's 0z run, similar solution.. hopefully it something we get to track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, ayuud11 said: Damm we really nickle'd and dime'd our way towards avg snowfall this year lol Not sure what the exact average for West Seneca is but I’d imagine it’s somewhere between 100”-110”. I’m at 111.1” for the season so far so at least an average to slightly above average season as it stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Not sure what the exact average for West Seneca is but I’d imagine it’s somewhere between 100”-110”. I’m at 111.1” for the season so far so at least an average to slightly above average season as it stands right now. 120-130" is about average for W.Seneca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 120-130" is about average for W.Seneca. I don’t think it’s quite that high. The very far SE part of West Seneca near OP/Elma may average about 120” or so but I think where I am in West Seneca (Center Rd, near Wimbledon Plaza) averages closer to 100-110”. I’m really not that far south, and there’s definitely a pretty big gradient even just in West Seneca. I’m only 5.8 miles as the crow flies SE of KeyBank Center (what I consider center of downtown) and 7 miles south of KBUF. A lot of the early season events nailed the SE part of West Seneca while I got fringed or skunked. Here’s my location (the little red dot) on this average snowfall map for perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Next one looking less and less interesting. Still time. Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 If this was a couple weeks ago it could of been decent, Gfs has been advertising some wrap around/lake enhancement for a few runs now but with surface temps in the low-mid 30’s, light precipitation rates and being March, probably won’t materialize to much, maybe up north towards the tug/dacks.. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 WOW! Found the snow! A relative of mine who lives over in Ireland (about an hour outside of Dublin) sent me some pictures! Said in the past week they have had over 100cm or roughly 40 inches of snow and winds in excess of 70mph. They live in a rural area and were told it could be days before the roads are cleared... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Here was the previous night's 0z run, similar solution.. hopefully it something we get to track.. That would be the ideal track for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: WOW! Found the snow! A relative of mine who lives over in Ireland (about an hour outside of Dublin) sent me some pictures! Said in the past week they have had over 100cm or roughly 40 inches of snow and winds in excess of 70mph. They live in a rural area and were told it could be days before the roads are cleared... You should check out Severe Weather Europe on Facebook. They've had some great videos from the recent arctic outbreak/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: That would be the ideal track for me! None of them have a track anywhere near that now. Unfortunately, they all goto the benchmark. It’s NYC- Boston storm. Let’s watch for next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: None of them have a track anywhere near that now. Unfortunately, they all goto the benchmark. It’s NYC- Boston storm. Let’s watch for next week! Honestly, the average yearly snowfall must have gone up a lot for cities like Boston and NYC since he turn of the millennium. It just seems that we see more big coastal snowstorms than Gulf and Texas lows these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Those in ENY are definitely still in the game for this week’s storm. Still 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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