Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 FWIW, NWS CTP is meh. Not too excited.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 They kinda have to be...so many variables could keep this a nuisance. March sun angle...how heavy is precip..surface air temps...elevation etc. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, Superstorm said: FWIW, NWS CTP is meh. Not too excited. . They should be more excited considering the overnight models, plus the Euro ensemble mean has the LSV at 6-8 inches of snow & the Control has 10-12 for the LSV. Even if we get half of that,it would still be a good storm for the time of year. CTP “most likely” map has near 1 inch for most of us, while the “high end” has near 10 inches for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: FWIW, NWS CTP is meh. Not too excited. . Hard to blame them. Even if it snows precip won’t be too heavy so March likely kills it almost immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 57 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: They should be more excited considering the overnight models, plus the Euro ensemble mean has the LSV at 6-8 inches of snow & the Control has 10-12 for the LSV. Even if we get half of that,it would still be a good storm for the time of year. CTP “most likely” map has near 1 inch for most of us, while the “high end” has near 10 inches for most of us. looking at 0z/6zs im not stepping off any ledges. Actually feel progression looks good for many of us in here. 500/700 panels on GFS/NAM appear vertically stacked and in a nice spot off VA coastline. Should start looking good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 https://twitter.com/KnightCBS21/status/975708586847371264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at 0z/6zs im not stepping off any ledges. Actually feel progression looks good for many of us in here. 500/700 panels on GFS/NAM appear vertically stacked and in a nice spot off VA coastline. Should start looking good today. i'll probably hang on until later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: https://twitter.com/KnightCBS21/status/975708586847371264 Amazing to see how conservative local news outlets are being. Maybe I’m missing something but I like where we stand. (LSV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i'll probably hang on until later this evening We've got nothing else to lose right? I came back for this one, and its close enough to see it through. What the heck. If it goes south or coastal pops too far east at all today....were toast buddy. Today is turn n tuck day in the village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, anotherman said: Im telling ya....while that may verify, that looks like they took they took the GFS verbatim, cut the qpf by 75% on the south side, and drew a map. Only guess is that they see some progression that we dont and are goin out on a limb. I dont think big big totals are likely as its not that cold right now, and yes we will lose snow due to sun angle blah blah, but the dynamics can do miracles for snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here is how paranoia starts: I just got a text saying a very large business in the Chambersburg area is saying to expect eighteen inches of snow. The wishcasting that is going on is turning me into Voyager. I want to punch people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Here is how paranoia starts: I just got a text saying a very large business in the Chambersburg area is saying to expect eighteen inches of snow. The wishcasting that is going on is turning me into Voyager. I want to punch people. Sumbudy huggin NAM....and counting EVERY flake. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Here is how paranoia starts: I just got a text saying a very large business in the Chambersburg area is saying to expect eighteen inches of snow. The wishcasting that is going on is turning me into Voyager. I want to punch people. Marketing strategy for wal mart or giant foods. Get your milk and bread now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 and like i said, for those wishing it away, meh'in whatever, this dude has juice and will make a season for some, it will break heart of others. But 1" w/ 2" in Bloomfield (which as per the map is getting fringed at best). Poor work IMO. Now watch, itll go south today and that map will verify....hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Horst calling for a period of light snow or flurries and drizzle. (Tuesday) Chance of a period of snow Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm starting to see accumulations amounts out on social media. Just crazy if anyone thinks they have the confidence to put amounts out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, paweather said: I'm starting to see accumulations amounts out on social media. Just crazy if anyone thinks they have the confidence to put amounts out there right now. yeah thats the danger of social media. Someone see a map like either of the above and doesnt really know what to do w/ it. BOTH have bust potential written all over em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If anyone wants to see a thing of beauty, loop the 6z 3k panels and what an amaizing evolution verbatim. If we could tug that thing north a little more, it would be a fantastic way to end the season IMO. Still too many moving parts IMO, but fun to look at nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 43 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We've got nothing else to lose right? I came back for this one, and its close enough to see it through. What the heck. If it goes south or coastal pops too far east at all today....were toast buddy. Today is turn n tuck day in the village. bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: If anyone wants to see a thing of beauty, loop the 6z 3k panels and what an amaizing evolution verbatim. If we could tug that thing north a little more, it would be a fantastic way to end the season IMO. Still too many moving parts IMO, but fun to look at nonetheless. I am still holding the belief that it comes a bit north like the GFS showed last week. EURO is catching on to that as well. Mets need to use their skill now more than ever to forecast it and not just rely on models. If anything this is so interesting that we are 24 hours out and still don't have a complete solution to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm not sure I've ever seen forecasts that simply ignore what the models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, paweather said: I am still holding the belief that it comes a bit north like the GFS showed last week. EURO is catching on to that as well. Mets need to use their skill now more than ever to forecast it and not just rely on models. If anything this is so interesting that we are 24 hours out and still don't have a complete solution to it. Yup. Same for us weenies. We all need to dig into our meteo bag of tools to figure out how this evolves. seeing 3 LP centers in a couple panels is a HUGE challenge, as subtle changes make a huge difference in where this goes and how it gets there. And thats the fun to me (win or lose). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yup. Same for us weenies. We all need to dig into our meteo bag of tools to figure out how this evolves. seeing 3 LP centers in a couple panels is a HUGE challenge, as subtle changes make a huge difference in where this goes and how it gets there. And thats the fun to me (win or lose). Agreed I wouldn't want to be a forecaster in this situation. Like I said before can't we just have a nice easy Miller A run up from the south. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm inclined to think as of right now based off everything that I see that we see nothing of significance through about 9pm tomorrow night. I'm starting to embrace the idea of a 8-12 hour period of accumulating snow overnight tomorrow through late morning Wednesday. For Lanco I'd go 2"-5" as of now with some potential upside. I believe the possibility of a whiff is decreasing but i also doubt their is much upside over say 6"-8". That is my 1st totally uneducated guess and it's for Lanco and immediate surrounds specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Well...strap in and hold on tight. 12z's have started. Here's to possibly the last hurrah!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, anotherman said: I'm not sure I've ever seen forecasts that simply ignore what the models are saying. You remember what happened two weeks ago? The weather folks are still being fed smelling salts from the pounding they took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here we go. 12K NAM is out to 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You remember what happened two weeks ago? The weather folks are still being fed smelling salts from the pounding they took. I agree that they are proceeding with caution (as they should), but it's irresponsible IMO to completely mislead the public by making this storm seem like a nuisance storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You remember what happened two weeks ago? The weather folks are still being fed smelling salts from the pounding they took. In fariness to all, that storm was always a whisper away from something good to nothing. Anyone that knew anything about weather knew and understood that. Problem is most folks see snowmaps flying around and dont get the inside scoop like we do. That forecast posted earlier for 1-2" is also gunshy bunk map....especially for the southern reaches of it. Northern part might verify, but south is and has been looking to be in the crosshairs of a good event...especially if #2 bombs out off delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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