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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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and for every good panel i've posted, there are stinkers as well, but since we know how to do stink....I'm not stinkin up the joint more than i already have.  Go find em yourself :P

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8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Nut...atomix and canderson have been canceling March...I was just frustrated over suppressed nature of system.

And it could end up that way but there are enough moving pieces to really say what will end up happening with any certainty. Horst seemed to indicate that we'll know tomorrow what will happen. 

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22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Nut...atomix and canderson have been canceling March...I was just frustrated over suppressed nature of system.

Yeah I know. It’s just tough when you’re  trying to post trends and provoke good discussion on a largely quiet board, and the one line Debbie’s come out to cancel after seemingly every bad run. Like maytown said we likely fail again but calling it this far out imo just sours the board from chatting. And thats why I spend so much time in here cause I love the chase. Sorry if u took it personally. 

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It's not one bad run, it's trended downward and the atmospheric conditions don't seem they'll align perfectly to bring this storm north. We're then in mid March and accumilating snow needs major storm systems in the later part of the month. I haven't seen anything other than bad news regarding atmospheric conditions from mets from other threads regarding NAO and all that will limit storm explosions. 

Miracles can happen - and I hope they do - but we've seen all season how these storms tend to go and we haven't been in the correct location to take advantage. I'm just hedging bets that doesn't change within the next 15 days. 

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15 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I know. It’s just tough when you’re  trying to post trends and provoke good discussion on a largely quiet board, and the one line Debbie’s come out to cancel after seemingly every bad run. Like maytown said we likely fail again but calling it this far out imo just sours the board from chatting. And thats why I spend so much time in here cause I love the chase. Sorry if u took it personally. 

It took me a day or so to shake off my disappointment from the debacle of a close snow storm miss this week.

It has been interesting & frustrating to watch the wild swings in the models with the potential storm for Monday. I just hope we don’t get the rug pulled out from under us 1 more time. I would rather not be in the game for this one, than go through that once again this year.

On the other hand, I will be right here tracking with you guys if this trends back in our direction!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here we go again...

GFS & NAM reeling us back in....

Shift that storm just a little north and west and we’ve a good plowable snow Monday into Tuesday. Here’s to hoping for one last drop of the plows on a very profitable season so far. 

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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Horst gives Lanco about a 35% chance of a hit...says there will be a double barrel low off the coast. If the low closer to the coast is strongest than we'll get hit. 

He's dead on the money. Need a solid phase south of our latitudes as well for that to occur. GFS had it and was really close to a great run for the eastern half of the sub. Euro kept the NS vort and the vort rounding the base of the trough separated long enough that it didn't phase until at our latitude and was pulled north up by LI. It's pretty close around here. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I know one model trend that's going to be a sure thing...we'll have to stay up an hour later for them after tonight. 

I know one meteorologist that might have to tonight to begin prep for overnights starting Tuesday....

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

He's dead on the money. Need a solid phase south of our latitudes as well for that to occur. GFS had it and was really close to a great run for the eastern half of the sub. Euro kept the NS vort and the vort rounding the base of the trough separated long enough that it didn't phase until at our latitude and was pulled north up by LI. It's pretty close around here. 

Thank you for that. I appreciate your thoughts and read them regularly in the mid Atlantic thread. I wish you posted here more often!

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Thank you for that. I appreciate your thoughts and read them regularly in the mid Atlantic thread. I wish you posted here more often!

No problem! I usually post at work, since I feel I'm always here, so I post in the MA forum since that's where I live. I wish I had time to post more. I love this thread. You all have been there since day 1 when I joined back in college. I try to lend my thoughts here when I can, but I just haven't had a ton of time. I follow along a lot when I'm not at work. I sometimes need a little break from weather and forecasting. I do so much of it normally, and I don't even forecast for the MA or PA area lol 

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18z NAM (12k) pops some light snow in eastern PA. Edit: just saw the 3k NAM, wow that's a difference.  GFS and NAM were definitely closer/quicker to a phase than the Euro in todays runs but they're all back to having a storm. The 500mb ridge out west is in the traditional perfect position for a C-PA storm, but the interaction of the northern and southern shortwaves is still off a bit. It is really close to being something. I don't think that 50/50 low is moving out fast enough to allow downstream heights to rebuild, allowing the southern shortwave to scoot out too fast before the northern wave starts interacting. But there's still room for things to adjust, it does seem that this system has slowed down some in guidance. 

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47 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think many in here will love the 3km NAM. Really nice upper level progression with phasing south of our latitude. Just like we drew it up :) 

That was an awesome run that delivered 6 inches to the LSV & a few inches back further to the West In CTP & that was just through the end of the run when it looks like a few more hours of snow to go !

Let’s hope the 0z runs tonight are good !

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I know one model trend that's going to be a sure thing...we'll have to stay up an hour later for them after tonight. 

I’m Too old. Unless it’s a blizzard.

 

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2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think many in here will love the 3km NAM. Really nice upper level progression with phasing south of our latitude. Just like we drew it up :) 

You are our good luck charm. We need you to stay and change the mojo. ;)  thanks for the insight bud. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

18z NAM (12k) pops some light snow in eastern PA. Edit: just saw the 3k NAM, wow that's a difference.  GFS and NAM were definitely closer/quicker to a phase than the Euro in todays runs but they're all back to having a storm. The 500mb ridge out west is in the traditional perfect position for a C-PA storm, but the interaction of the northern and southern shortwaves is still off a bit. It is really close to being something. I don't think that 50/50 low is moving out fast enough to allow downstream heights to rebuild, allowing the southern shortwave to scoot out too fast before the northern wave starts interacting. But there's still room for things to adjust, it does seem that this system has slowed down some in guidance. 

Keep it up Mag. I’m in the mountains for a work weekend and cant get maps easily. Talk to me brother. ;)

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

18z NAM (12k) pops some light snow in eastern PA. Edit: just saw the 3k NAM, wow that's a difference.  GFS and NAM were definitely closer/quicker to a phase than the Euro in todays runs but they're all back to having a storm. The 500mb ridge out west is in the traditional perfect position for a C-PA storm, but the interaction of the northern and southern shortwaves is still off a bit. It is really close to being something. I don't think that 50/50 low is moving out fast enough to allow downstream heights to rebuild, allowing the southern shortwave to scoot out too fast before the northern wave starts interacting. But there's still room for things to adjust, it does seem that this system has slowed down some in guidance. 

I said yesterday that the 50/50 is hurting this storm and PSU disagreed. Not sure how you can’t see that we need adequate spacing and that bugger hangin out off NS is impeding our storm from gainging latitude as well as somewhat shredding the NW quadrant because of lack of spacing. I can’t tell what happening but the sooner the 50/59 scoots the better your snow maps IMO. 

Bring it home gang. I’m there in spirit but am sorta blind up here. 

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25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I said yesterday that the 50/50 is hurting this storm and PSU disagreed. Not sure how you can’t see that we need adequate spacing and that bugger hangin out off NS is impeding our storm from gainging latitude as well as somewhat shredding the NW quadrant because of lack of spacing. I can’t tell what happening but the sooner the 50/59 scoots the better your snow maps IMO. 

Bring it home gang. I’m there in spirit but am sorta blind up here. 

FYI...3K NAM gives 3-4" to MDT and 4-5" to LNS using Kuchera, and 4-5" to MDT and 5-6" to LNS using straight 10:1.  Snow appears to just be winding down a little after midnight Monday evening with main accumulations between noon and midnight Monday/Monday night.

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