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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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I've had three or four people today ask me about Sunday's "storm." Is one of those Facebook wx groups hyping up a storm that might bring snow to Roanoke by saying we're getting a blizzard? That wouldn't surprise me ... 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

I've had three or four people today ask me about Sunday's "storm." Is one of those Facebook wx groups hyping up a storm that might bring snow to Roanoke by saying we're getting a blizzard? That wouldn't surprise me ... 

I haven't seen too much hype about it. 18z GFS brought it back north some, getting precip to the Mason-Dixon.. with GEFS ensemble mean looking like some members got precip into southern PA/LSV. 12z GEPS precip mean (Canadian ensembles) actually impacts PA pretty significantly although Canadian op was more similar to the 12z GFS getting precip nearly to the Mason Dixon. There's still a chance for this storm to come back but I don't know what to think of the Euro, the 12z op barely has any kind of storm again today and the ensemble seemed way south. Def wouldn't sleep on it yet. 

Although it'll probably come back just enough to get the Mid-Atlantic their big winter storm and leave us high and dry, again.

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6 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I'd like to comment on this past storm - in my county alone accumulations ranged from 0" - 10". If the storm would have been 25-50 miles west a lot of us would have spent the evening shoveling. To say that the NWS or anyone else was horrible might as well state that mets need to be perfect. If anyone can consistently pinpoint the development and movement of a low pressure system to less than 25 miles than weather is no longer a science or part of a prediction. Every freaking model that I saw from 12z and 18z on Tuesday had me getting near or above double digit amounts. And while meteorology is much more than model readings...how in the world do you go against that? You'd be almost foolish to do so. The fact is, there are subtle shifts with every storm and it's track. It just so happens that yesterday that shift took us from in the game to JUST being on the outside. That happens all the time. Yesterday it happened to us. It sucks, hurts, stinks, and everything else but it's the weather and even with the newest technology and every other advancement in weather prediction...these things will continue to happen. 

A lot of people looked really bad yesterday, but let's not call them horrible. To me that's a bit unfair. 

Yes, even Eric Horst, who I believe to be one of the best meteorologists in PA, had numbers too high. That, alone, tells me the storm even surprised him some. He knew it might happen, as what you guys went through is SO typical of Lancaster County winter storms. If I still lived in Lancaster County, I would go with whatever Eric says, along with the climate...which would tell me this is not surprising at all how it turned out.

I was sitting here yesterday feeling for all my Lancaster County friends who were looking forward to a good snowstorm. I am sure some responses are just out of disappointment.

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42 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Yes, even Eric Horst, who I believe to be one of the best meteorologists in PA, had numbers too high. That, alone, tells me the storm even surprised him some. He knew it might happen, as what you guys went through is SO typical of Lancaster County winter storms. If I still lived in Lancaster County, I would go with whatever Eric says, along with the climate...which would tell me this is not surprising at all how it turned out.

I was sitting here yesterday feeling for all my Lancaster County friends who were looking forward to a good snowstorm. I am sure some responses are just out of disappointment.

Down where you used to live did okay...numerous reports of 4"-5" down in Solanco. Lancaster county truly was the dividing line...

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39 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Yes, even Eric Horst, who I believe to be one of the best meteorologists in PA, had numbers too high. That, alone, tells me the storm even surprised him some. He knew it might happen, as what you guys went through is SO typical of Lancaster County winter storms. If I still lived in Lancaster County, I would go with whatever Eric says, along with the climate...which would tell me this is not surprising at all how it turned out.

I was sitting here yesterday feeling for all my Lancaster County friends who were looking forward to a good snowstorm. I am sure some responses are just out of disappointment.

Yeah he’s good stuff. This storm was a shot to the chops but just a continuation of a bad couple years. You’d think we’d(I’d) be better at missing. I roll with it as best I can cause it’s just weather but damn it already. 

If we could have a normalish winter I’d welcome spring just like most....but I’ve seen white like 2x in the past 4-6 weeks. That sucks. I’m almost to a point where I say f it....bring on spring. You can only take so much disappointment (again based on the fact that we live in areas that it snows). It not like we’re in SC trying to gin up somethin that shouldn’t happen here.  

Funny how winter started rather nicely but dudded our big time. Oh well. Next year....I hope. 

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6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Down where you used to live did okay...numerous reports of 4"-5" down in Solanco. Lancaster county truly was the dividing line...

Maybe 1.5 here in Ephrata as per my kids. Etown had barely a dusting. 

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19 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Down where you used to live did okay...numerous reports of 4"-5" down in Solanco. Lancaster county truly was the dividing line...

I wonder how Willow Street did. I lived up on a hill in West Willow (beautiful view of Solanco). We often did pretty well with elevation-dependent events. Not as well as Mt. Nebo. Mt. Nebo is a micro-climate in itself. I had a couple friends who lived in that area, and winters were definitely more harsh there than probably in 90% of the rest of the county.

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah he’s good stuff. This storm was a shot to the chops but just a continuation of a bad couple years. You’d think we’d(I’d) be better at missing. I roll with it as best I can cause it’s just weather but damn it already. 

If we could have a normalish winter I’d welcome spring just like most....but I’ve seen white like 2x in the past 4-6 weeks. That sucks. I’m almost to a point where I say f it....bring on spring. You can only take so much disappointment (again based on the fact that we live in areas that it snows). It not like we’re in SC trying to gin up somethin that shouldn’t happen here.  

Funny how winter started rather nicely but dudded our big time. Oh well. Next year....I hope. 

Well, to be honest, I feel your pain. I didn't see snowflakes for several weeks even up here in Michigan. In fact, we did not see 1 INCH of snow in the period between Feb. 11 and March 5. Ridiculous. I have NOT been amused with the snow drought up here. Meanwhile, Southeast Michigan/Detroit area keeps "popping snowstorms" out of nowhere. They've had like 6 six-inch plus events in Feb. and March alone....none here. ARGH.

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1 hour ago, blackrock said:

I wonder how Willow Street did. I lived up on a hill in West Willow (beautiful view of Solanco). We often did pretty well with elevation-dependent events. Not as well as Mt. Nebo. Mt. Nebo is a micro-climate in itself. I had a couple friends who lived in that area, and winters were definitely more harsh there than probably in 90% of the rest of the county.

Well, to be honest, I feel your pain. I didn't see snowflakes for several weeks even up here in Michigan. In fact, we did not see 1 INCH of snow in the period between Feb. 11 and March 5. Ridiculous. I have NOT been amused with the snow drought up here. Meanwhile, Southeast Michigan/Detroit area keeps "popping snowstorms" out of nowhere. They've had like 6 six-inch plus events in Feb. and March alone....none here. ARGH.

wow.  that does suck.  Cause its really supposed to snow in your town.  

I think i read somewhere in WV has only 3" ytd.  I'll quit complaining for the rest of the night. 

Its just hard to see businesses that rely on it struggle.  My snowmobile club lost over 50% of its members last year, and we still havent recovered, yet I/we still do all of the necessary volunteer work in hopes of better times.  It's hard.

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21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wow.  that does suck.  Cause its really supposed to snow in your town.  

I think i read somewhere in WV has only 3" ytd.  I'll quit complaining for the rest of the night. 

Its just hard to see businesses that rely on it struggle.  My snowmobile club lost over 50% of its members last year, and we still havent recovered, yet I/we still do all of the necessary volunteer work in hopes of better times.  It's hard.

Blue Knob Ski Resort almost shut down for the season in late February. They were closed indefinitely until the weather the last several days finally allowed them to make snow to get some very limited terrain open. That second half of February pretty much wiped their base out. Summit of that mountain is over 3100' and they probably average at least 120-150" a season.

This NW flow/upslope regime is just what they need to have some decent conditions up there while the pattern remains cold for the time being, but they lost what usually is the best time of the year up there. 

 

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Man if only this weren't the SREF's in clown range, they certainly want to make Sun/Mon's thing big around here. That's in inches btw. 

5aa1faf3e1b62_ScreenShot2018-03-08at10_08_27PM.thumb.png.3d81d76d2d6d05602a0106fb105d28b8.png

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42 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wow.  that does suck.  Cause its really supposed to snow in your town.  

I think i read somewhere in WV has only 3" ytd.  I'll quit complaining for the rest of the night. 

Its just hard to see businesses that rely on it struggle.  My snowmobile club lost over 50% of its members last year, and we still havent recovered, yet I/we still do all of the necessary volunteer work in hopes of better times.  It's hard.

Wow! Where do you snowmobile at?

Northern Lower Michigan has been hurting really bad as well the past several winters. They are winter-recreational paradise. One of the fellows on our sub-forum, who lives in Gaylord (averages 160 inches a year) got 10 INCHES from late January through the entire month of February. Another guy, who lives in the UP and averages over 200 inches only got 12 INCHES in February. Meanwhile, Southeastern Michigan has been pound-town with above average winter the past several years.

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Blue Knob Ski Resort almost shut down for the season in late February. They were closed indefinitely until the weather the last several days finally allowed them to make snow to get some very limited terrain open. That second half of February pretty much wiped their base out. Summit of that mountain is over 3100' and they probably average at least 120-150" a season.

This NW flow/upslope regime is just what they need to have some decent conditions up there while the pattern remains cold for the time being, but they lost what usually is the best time of the year up there. 

 

Here in the Lake Michigan snow belt, we have not had a good lake effect event since early January. The past 3 winters have been dreadful.

I imagine Blue Knob gets some pretty bad thaws when the SW winds come ripping up through the Ohio Valley?

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28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Blue Knob Ski Resort almost shut down for the season in late February. They were closed indefinitely until the weather the last several days finally allowed them to make snow to get some very limited terrain open. That second half of February pretty much wiped their base out. Summit of that mountain is over 3100' and they probably average at least 120-150" a season.

This NW flow/upslope regime is just what they need to have some decent conditions up there while the pattern remains cold for the time being, but they lost what usually is the best time of the year up there. 

 

hate to hear that stuff.  We cant afford to see places like them go under.  Hoping they get a good couple weeks in before its over.

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19 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Wow! Where do you snowmobile at?

Northern Lower Michigan has been hurting really bad as well the past several winters. They are winter-recreational paradise. One of the fellows on our sub-forum, who lives in Gaylord (averages 160 inches a year) got 10 INCHES from late January through the entire month of February. Another guy, who lives in the UP and averages over 200 inches only got 12 INCHES in February. Meanwhile, Southeastern Michigan has been pound-town with above average winter the past several years.

Here in the Lake Michigan snow belt, we have not had a good lake effect event since early January. The past 3 winters have been dreadful.

I imagine Blue Knob gets some pretty bad thaws when the SW winds come ripping up through the Ohio Valley?

I built the website and am one of 2 webmaster/soc media guys  for the Pa Grand Canyon Snowmobile Club in Ansonia Pa (between Wellsboro and Galeton.  I am close w/ the club leadership and weve done/invested alot of time and money to get things right for snowmobile enthusiasts in the area, from access trails to bridges, to gas pumps, and business partnerships to cater to the crowds when things are right.  We've just been hoping that things would finally break in our favor, and while were not going under, its been quite a struggle.  So many businesses in the northwoods need us up there in the winter months and rely on us for patronizing their establishments.  

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I've got nothing to lose and everything to gain.  and still time to do so, so what the heck....

here's to trends!!  Even if its only 1 model

Sleep on this....

gfs_asnow_neus_19.png

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54 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Wow! Where do you snowmobile at?

Northern Lower Michigan has been hurting really bad as well the past several winters. They are winter-recreational paradise. One of the fellows on our sub-forum, who lives in Gaylord (averages 160 inches a year) got 10 INCHES from late January through the entire month of February. Another guy, who lives in the UP and averages over 200 inches only got 12 INCHES in February. Meanwhile, Southeastern Michigan has been pound-town with above average winter the past several years.

Here in the Lake Michigan snow belt, we have not had a good lake effect event since early January. The past 3 winters have been dreadful.

I imagine Blue Knob gets some pretty bad thaws when the SW winds come ripping up through the Ohio Valley?

They can but they're also on the eastern edge of the Laurel Highlands so they can hold into CAD in some situations. That part of the Laurel's usually does quite well on lake effect/upslope snows but there's been a lack of good events of that type the last couple winters.

Actually, the upper level disturbance moving through tonight and the NW flow behind the slowly departed nor'easter presents probably the best lake enhanced upslope setup I've seen all season around here with a possible Huron connection. Might be able to luck out here and have a couple inches blow off the top of the Allegheny front 5 miles away into the backyard haha. But yea there have been some big winners and big losers around the Lakes this season. Erie already broke it's snowiest season on record before the previous nor'easter that got started in SE MI/Northern OH on the way to throttling NY state. 

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9 hours ago, canderson said:

If that 50/50 exits we might be close indeed. Is there anything left to keep suppressing this from doing the usual north jog?

agreed.  that has been IMO the piece that needs to scoot to let this puppy climb as well as to not shear NW qpf.  

It could also just be a sloppy transfter to coastal that is killin us.  

12zs should tell us snow or no.....getting close enough to start seeing some continuity.

0z Euro stepped towards the idea as well.  still work to do.

 

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also the NS vort needs to drop in sooner which would help the ridging out in front.  

Boy do we have ways to fail figured out.

Hoping today is a small (or big) victory for us.

 

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Crazy part is guys south have to root for a flat, boring solution with lower qpf totals to have it stay under them...ours would be much more of a dynamic storm to phase or turn corner..with Im guessing better qpf.

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2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Crazy part is guys south have to root for a flat, boring solution with lower qpf totals to have it stay under them...ours would be much more of a dynamic storm to phase or turn corner..with Im guessing better qpf.

flat enough.........??

wheres the dramamine bottle?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Wth...suppressed storm in March. Hope RIC enjoys their 2 inches of slop on the grass.

Wow guys!  2 days out/1 bad run of the GFS and your calling it over because a model run doesnt show snow in your yard.  Did you see the ensembles? 

Heres the ukie.P1_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000 (1).gif

 

I know some of you want it over, but wishing never works for any of us. 

 

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Dude Im on your side...I want a few of us to cash in.

put your cash here then.........:wub:

Sorry.....the one line "its over" zingers just irk me a little.  Educate us as to why you are skeptical, before you kick us in the kahoonas.  It'll feel much better then.

 

SN_000-084_0000.gif

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