Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA - March 2018


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
45 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I am popping in and out watching you guys have fun...between the ssl handshake errors and site offline notices.  Hope to be back up there this summer though been house hunting for two months and the market is as dry as I have ever seen it.  

There he is his my friend! March snowstorm for you. Miss you guy. The old Marcus days! I am hoping to bring it home tomorrow for CPA. Get back here, 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS looks to be on crack with it's qpf for our region.  5.9" total for MDT for the whole event (round 2)??  The HRRR already says the GFS is wrong as it has close to 8" at 4:00pm tomorrow afternoon with many more hours to go still after that.  Tomorrow afternoon really looks to be rockin over our region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The GFS looks to be on crack with it's qpf for our region.  5.9" total for MDT for the whole event (round 2)??  The HRRR already says the GFS is wrong as it has close to 8" at 4:00pm tomorrow afternoon with many more hours to go still after that.  Tomorrow afternoon really looks to be rockin over our region.

That is the same story for the GFS Radar and nowcasting time.

 

3 minutes ago, 717WeatherLover said:

Don't look over at the Mid Atlantic.  They are jumping off the cliff over the most recent models.

Nice. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The GFS looks to be on crack with it's qpf for our region.  5.9" total for MDT for the whole event (round 2)??  The HRRR already says the GFS is wrong as it has close to 8" at 4:00pm tomorrow afternoon with many more hours to go still after that.  Tomorrow afternoon really looks to be rockin over our region.

crack....please don't use a global when forecasting 24 hours out. Deform band is for real. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just did my meltdown of the 4" of snowfall from Tuesday and got a very surprising ratio.  The snow melted down to only 0.22" of liquid which produces an SLR of 18 : 1 !!!

Please, Cashtown or Maytown  or anyone else who measures SLR's that had 3" of snow or more, let me know what your SLR was so I can see if I'm in the ballpark with it being so high.  I know it's not absurdly high, but I was expecting at best 10 :1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, paweather said:

crack....please don't use a global when forecasting 24 hours out. Deform band is for real. 

That's my point.  The GFS obviously has some issues with the super-short lead time of this 0Z run.  I'm easily favoring at least a blend of the 2 NAMs plus the HRRR's as we move through tomorrow.

Also, just got off the phone with one of my wx friends from Bergen county in NE NJ.  He said NYC's Channel 7 (ABC) met is calling for 10 - 14" for all of NYC and northeastern NJ tomorrow into Thursday.  NYC schools have closed for tomorrow, which is a very rare event.  Some areas of north jersey that got 20" of snow 2 weeks ago are bracing for possibly another 12 to 18" with tomorrow's storm.  That would give those areas the snowiest March on record, with records going back to the 1870's.  Unreal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was afraid we bust...still afraid that we might. But I'm having a better feeling now that some of the best snow might be over south central PA and the mason dixon line. That gradient is super tight to the north, thats for sure. It kinda reminds me of the Jan 2016 blizzard because of that.

Here around Harrisburg it was a none event yesterday compared to York. Got maybe 3 inches of snow at most. Here's hoping later today it makes up for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heading off to bed now as round 2 is getting underway here, almost exactly 12 hours after round one began, with some large flakes swirling around in the wind again.  See you all in the morning.  Pleasant dreams.

PS>>Dusting again on the board with a temp of 30.9 and rising at the moment.  Not worried, it'll head back down soon enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well precip sputtered for awhile but finally got the steady snow restarted around these parts. Time to close this thing out and beat the "biggest" snow I've had this winter (all the way back in mid December). 

2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I just did my meltdown of the 4" of snowfall from Tuesday and got a very surprising ratio.  The snow melted down to only 0.22" of liquid which produces an SLR of 18 : 1 !!!

Please, Cashtown or Maytown  or anyone else who measures SLR's that had 3" of snow or more, let me know what your SLR was so I can see if I'm in the ballpark with it being so high.  I know it's not absurdly high, but I was expecting at best 10 :1.

That's a pretty impressive ratio, I can't say I'm surprised we had better than expected ratios though. It actually wouldn't be a stretch to say this snowfall is one of the fluffiest of the winter for me. I don't have anything really accurate to do a meltdown but I can vouch my almost 3.5" of snow earlier was quite fluffy...and likely >10:1. Lot's of healthy sized fluffy flakes and aggregates, and really didn't see that typical fine moderate to heavy snow you see in the middle of these classic northeast snowstorms. I think round 2 is going to have more of the latter as the coastal takes over. 

I think the initial wave had decent lift in the mid levels (700mb) that promoted good snow growth in that part of the column and the initial dry air and cooling of the column allowed the fluffy snow all the way to the ground. Since it's been pretty chilly for this time of year and we had cold air in place and ready to go for the event.. it readily accumulated on non-paved surfaces where there was good rates. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...