Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, daxx said: I think 2-5 is a good call for first event. If second event turns out as good or better than some of the models show then we can double that. Snow depth is a total different story. I’m still nervous about round two. Let’s hope it works out. Hmm...I was thinking that tomorrow would be pretty much a coating to perhaps 2" deal. I was thinking there was far more upside to tomorrow night and Wednesday. I know Horst is not impressed with wave 1. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, daxx said: I think 2-5 is a good call for first event. If second event turns out as good or better than some of the models show then we can double that. Snow depth is a total different story. I’m still nervous about round two. Let’s hope it works out. Good point on depth. You might get 10” of snow over say 20 hrs and only have a 5-6” depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It’s good to be conservative for now. It’s soon now casting and part I will have people all over Mets saying another bust until part 2 starts. Folks that aren’t as close to weather like us will be going crazy saying bust by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: @Blizzard of 93 Huh? Horst was the one that called for 10" down here last year. All models were putting out 20" or more. We got 10"... I was referring to pro forecasters & people that follow the weather like us, that dismiss March snow & think that we can’t get heavy totals just because of the sun angle & the calendar date ... we just got hammered with a 17 inch storm last March 14th, so clearly it is very possible. This current storm is not a little moisture starved clipper system. We have the chance to get a major, memorable storm. I understand pro Mets must start conservative with their forecasts, especially after the debacle earlier this month. It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds. Lets do this ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: If you look at their high end maps (and their low end maps for that matter), you can see the tremendous spread that remains in the guidance to generate those products. On one end of the spectrum everyone sees warning snow and the southern half of the CWA sees 12+ and on the other end 75% of the CWA sees 0". Thus, I think their most likely map that's out is reasonable. They did note in their disco that they hoped the addition of the global model members into their suite tonight to generate the maps (however they do that) would knock down the spread. The met that did that short term update also mentioned numbers from the NAM package were in the "ridiculoso" range in Somerset County, haha. I think big numbers are doable but the big issue will be precip rates. Early looks at the HRRR and RAP are showing good push into PA with the initial wave. The longer range RAP, which somehow went to 50 hours on the 21z run, shows a lull Tuesday eve before precip shield rengenerates and hangs over PA. Not taking that completely to heart... but lull's are risky, I think if the deform stays in one piece and the snow never stops will we have a chance at the big totals. The duration also brings verification of higher criteria into consideration as well (needing to use 24hr instead of 12 hour criteria). 0z should finally start narrowing ranges down. They better, this thing's about 12 hours from starting. Yeah, I'm sorta playin, but when you see NWS maps out of MD going bigger than much of CTP likely map as per 12/18'z guidance)...it makes one wonder what if any collaboration is going on. I TOTALLY agree that rates will be critical for accums to verify, and also agree that NAM's are overdone. Most of us know that. But all that said, liquid eqivalent is pretty stout, and up here we will likely taint only as sleet based on thermal profiles I last saw. Yeah, lull's and part 2's of these types are always the scary part, and that is where the bust potential could keep totals knocked down. To the other end, most models have much of us in great CCB location (assuming coastal verifies as todays model runs have suggested. We all know that we can get it done w/ sufficient dynamics...even in the valleys. Yes, likely winners are mountaintops, but from what I've seen from todays model runs, Lanco in 2-5" is bunk (again, unless someone has a magic weegie board voodo doll that the rest of us dont). Only talkin MBY because thats where the 2-5 call is currently. It is also fair to say that if they are showing part 1 totals, then I'll buy it (and that could be a bit overdone), but if they are including coastal part 2, then I'm not seeing what they are. Like you stated, since they have a little more time and a couple more runs to see how the coastal forms, I'd guess they'd up totals once confidence increases. My thing for the public is that potential needs to be shared w/ public, because 2-5" map could be WAY off if it all comes together, and THAT is another way to piss off the public. Less damage is done when they go big, and storm poops, then when they saw it coming but stayed conservative until it was too late. JMO's and regardless, it's a tricky event. Hoping for tonight to hold.....not fold. a lot of digital money being exchanged on digital snow today. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I'm sorta playin, but when you see NWS maps out of MD going bigger than much of CTP likely map as per 12/18'z guidance)...it makes one wonder what if any collaboration is going on. I TOTALLY agree that rates will be critical for accums to verify, and also agree that NAM's are overdone. Most of us know that. But all that said, liquid eqivalent is pretty stout, and up here we will likely taint only as sleet based on thermal profiles I last saw. Yeah, lull's and part 2's of these types are always the scary part, and that is where the bust potential could keep totals knocked down. To the other end, most models have much of us in great CCB location (assuming coastal verifies as todays model runs have suggested. We all know that we can get it done w/ sufficient dynamics...even in the valleys. Yes, likely winners are mountaintops, but from what I've seen from todays model runs, Lanco in 2-5" is bunk (again, unless someone has a magic weegie board voodo doll that the rest of us dont). Only talkin MBY because thats where the 2-5 call is currently. It is also fair to say that if they are showing part 1 totals, then I'll buy it (and that could be a bit overdone), but if they are including coastal part 2, then I'm not seeing what they are. Like you stated, since they have a little more time and a couple more runs to see how the coastal forms, I'd guess they'd up totals once confidence increases. My thing for the public is that potential needs to be shared w/ public, because 2-5" map could be WAY off if it all comes together, and THAT is another way to piss off the public. Less damage is done when they go big, and storm poops, then when they saw it coming but stayed conservative until it was too late. JMO's and regardless, it's a tricky event. Hoping for tonight to hold.....not fold. a lot of digital money being exchanged on digital snow today. Nut Very very very well said sir ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I'm sorta playin, but when you see NWS maps out of MD going bigger than much of CTP likely map as per 12/18'z guidance)...it makes one wonder what if any collaboration is going on. I TOTALLY agree that rates will be critical for accums to verify, and also agree that NAM's are overdone. Most of us know that. But all that said, liquid eqivalent is pretty stout, and up here we will likely taint only as sleet based on thermal profiles I last saw. Yeah, lull's and part 2's of these types are always the scary part, and that is where the bust potential could keep totals knocked down. To the other end, most models have much of us in great CCB location (assuming coastal verifies as todays model runs have suggested. We all know that we can get it done w/ sufficient dynamics...even in the valleys. Yes, likely winners are mountaintops, but from what I've seen from todays model runs, Lanco in 2-5" is bunk (again, unless someone has a magic weegie board voodo doll that the rest of us dont). Only talkin MBY because thats where the 2-5 call is currently. It is also fair to say that if they are showing part 1 totals, then I'll buy it (and that could be a bit overdone), but if they are including coastal part 2, then I'm not seeing what they are. Like you stated, since they have a little more time and a couple more runs to see how the coastal forms, I'd guess they'd up totals once confidence increases. My thing for the public is that potential needs to be shared w/ public, because 2-5" map could be WAY off if it all comes together, and THAT is another way to piss off the public. Less damage is done when they go big, and storm poops, then when they saw it coming but stayed conservative until it was too late. JMO's and regardless, it's a tricky event. Hoping for tonight to hold.....not fold. a lot of digital money being exchanged on digital snow today. Nut Totally agree. Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I'm sorta playin, but when you see NWS maps out of MD going bigger than much of CTP likely map as per 12/18'z guidance)...it makes one wonder what if any collaboration is going on. I TOTALLY agree that rates will be critical for accums to verify, and also agree that NAM's are overdone. Most of us know that. But all that said, liquid eqivalent is pretty stout, and up here we will likely taint only as sleet based on thermal profiles I last saw. Yeah, lull's and part 2's of these types are always the scary part, and that is where the bust potential could keep totals knocked down. To the other end, most models have much of us in great CCB location (assuming coastal verifies as todays model runs have suggested. We all know that we can get it done w/ sufficient dynamics...even in the valleys. Yes, likely winners are mountaintops, but from what I've seen from todays model runs, Lanco in 2-5" is bunk (again, unless someone has a magic weegie board voodo doll that the rest of us dont). Only talkin MBY because thats where the 2-5 call is currently. It is also fair to say that if they are showing part 1 totals, then I'll buy it (and that could be a bit overdone), but if they are including coastal part 2, then I'm not seeing what they are. Like you stated, since they have a little more time and a couple more runs to see how the coastal forms, I'd guess they'd up totals once confidence increases. My thing for the public is that potential needs to be shared w/ public, because 2-5" map could be WAY off if it all comes together, and THAT is another way to piss off the public. Less damage is done when they go big, and storm poops, then when they saw it coming but stayed conservative until it was too late. JMO's and regardless, it's a tricky event. Hoping for tonight to hold.....not fold. a lot of digital money being exchanged on digital snow today. Nut Yes, well said Cheers to 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I'm sorta playin, but when you see NWS maps out of MD going bigger than much of CTP likely map as per 12/18'z guidance)...it makes one wonder what if any collaboration is going on. I TOTALLY agree that rates will be critical for accums to verify, and also agree that NAM's are overdone. Most of us know that. But all that said, liquid eqivalent is pretty stout, and up here we will likely taint only as sleet based on thermal profiles I last saw. Yeah, lull's and part 2's of these types are always the scary part, and that is where the bust potential could keep totals knocked down. To the other end, most models have much of us in great CCB location (assuming coastal verifies as todays model runs have suggested. We all know that we can get it done w/ sufficient dynamics...even in the valleys. Yes, likely winners are mountaintops, but from what I've seen from todays model runs, Lanco in 2-5" is bunk (again, unless someone has a magic weegie board voodo doll that the rest of us dont). Only talkin MBY because thats where the 2-5 call is currently. It is also fair to say that if they are showing part 1 totals, then I'll buy it (and that could be a bit overdone), but if they are including coastal part 2, then I'm not seeing what they are. Like you stated, since they have a little more time and a couple more runs to see how the coastal forms, I'd guess they'd up totals once confidence increases. My thing for the public is that potential needs to be shared w/ public, because 2-5" map could be WAY off if it all comes together, and THAT is another way to piss off the public. Less damage is done when they go big, and storm poops, then when they saw it coming but stayed conservative until it was too late. JMO's and regardless, it's a tricky event. Hoping for tonight to hold.....not fold. a lot of digital money being exchanged on digital snow today. Nut Great post my friend and hard to argue. I guess I think that given so many things that can go wrong, 2"-5" is a safe play for now. I would rather revise up than down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Great post my friend and hard to argue. I guess I think that given so many things that can go wrong, 2"-5" is a safe play for now. I would rather revise up than down. The good thing POSITIVE is that we are debating this this late in the game. And we will see winter the next couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Great post my friend and hard to argue. I guess I think that given so many things that can go wrong, 2"-5" is a safe play for now. I would rather revise up than down. Thx. I guess I only disagree that its better to be prepared, than caught off guard (talking about a storm of this potential magnitude). We'll here goes nothing....0'z are rolling. Ante is going up.....you in.....you out?? Let's play. Good luck gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: Thx. I guess I only disagree that its better to be prepared, than caught off guard (talking about a storm of this potential magnitude). We'll here goes nothing....0'z are rolling. Ante is going up.....you in.....you out?? Let's play. Good luck gang. Ive been in since last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, paweather said: The good thing POSITIVE is that we are debating this this late in the game. And we will see winter the next couple of days! absolutely. No matter the outcome, this one is a great looking storm, and I've thoroughly enjoyed watching it unfold. We can see the finish line........... dont look back............ dont trip............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: absolutely. No matter the outcome, this one is a great looking storm, and I've thoroughly enjoyed watching it unfold. We can see the finish line........... dont look back............ dont trip............... The chips are all in and I’m feeling a blackjack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 out to 42 part 1 coming a tick south of 18z part 2 coastal is closer to coast. ccb's showing up at 36-39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I saw a friend share our buddies at S&S have 8-15” for the entire LSV and 15”+ for the Laurels ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM is still not shy about it's big numbers but the heavy snow axis is def south some. South central and most of the LSV still get wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I saw a friend share our buddies at S&S have 8-15” for the entire LSV and 15”+ for the Laurels ...Those guys are the definition of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 at 45 LP is approx 100 miles closer to coast, yet NW quad of qpf is cut back notably. IMO that doesnt make sense, as precip shield should be notably better 500/700 vert stacked. HMMMM.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm gonna agree nut....almost silly looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Can someone do a county overlay? Crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: NAM is still not shy about it's big numbers but the heavy snow axis is def south some. South central and most of the LSV still get wrecked. did you see LP track? Smoothed out its notably further W and one would think that precip field should be wreckin you to ITP w/ that track. If the track is correct, precip fields dont match? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: Those guys are the definition of weenies. S&S they are always right!? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Is that a 24” bullseye over MDT??.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I'm gonna agree nut....almost silly looking. Dude, dont walk away from the table yet..... it doesnt match up to me. That track was money for CTP, and truth told, thats what I'm still pinning down. Top down it looked good, but surface depiction seemed to lag IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Both 12k and 3k massive hits for lsv! North and west do good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Dude, dont walk away from the table yet..... it doesnt match up to me. That track was money for CTP, and truth told, thats what I'm still pinning down. Top down it looked good, but surface depiction seemed to lag IMO. CCB can setup anywhere we could get screwed with just digital snow still think many in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 coastal basically stalls from 31-47 (as far out as 3k is right now)....lol that should set up some whicked CCB's back into ridge valley regions IMO. Not sure what to think as LP was only 2-3mb higher than 18z's, but that may be part of what is knocking back totals a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Isn't the nam a lot more reliable 24 hours out or not? Those amounts look unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: at 45 LP is approx 100 miles closer to coast, yet NW quad of qpf is cut back notably. IMO that doesnt make sense, as precip shield should be notably better 500/700 vert stacked. HMMMM.............. It’s running into dry air to the north that is likely going to kill rates north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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