Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol this is gonna be fun Enjoy your snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol this is gonna be fun This is one for you next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 another coastal showing up for next week. We may not be done yet who knows maybe an Easter snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Easter on the GFS LOL, it won't last but had to show it. It's also April Fools day so the GFS is just fooling us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm fine bros...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The SREF look good for for the LSV. Mean of about 10” with a range from 0”-25”. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: I'm fine bros...good luck. Ukie gives you some love. Northeast pa does well on 12z ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 42 minutes ago, paweather said: Pretty crazy that finally we have consensus with models. It took a long time for it. Could always go the other way at 18z. well at least well only have wasted 6 hours thinking storm was coming and not 36. (protection mehcanism of thinking that despite the growing consensus - we still find a way to fail....in hopes of protecting my inner weenie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 #Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: @AllWeather I hate to be you right now. I need a drink! These last two weeks have been incredible. As for our storm, I’ve been looking at this fully as two pieces for several days. Shortwave currently shooting through the Midwest streaks our way while a ribbon of vorticity behind it that phases with the northern stream. Meanwhile, the initial vort sort of phases/shears out as the phasing system begins to tilt. I’ll be honest, this is a head scratcher, but some things becoming clear. Will take heavy rates of snow to overcome the Sun angle and marginal BL temps this time of year. Then there’s the sleet potential to cut down on snow. I’d take the Tuesday snow maps and cut them AT LEAST by 50%. Even then, what accumulates will have a hard time on roads, unless it’s sleet, then that could make things slick. Then the Wednesday piece has the potential to give us good accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday. Again, banding is everything. Model wise, the Euro OP and ensembles have been VERY consistent and matched well the last few runs in a row. Before that, it was the GFS holding steady. The NAM run last night at 00z barely gave anything to this forum now all of a sudden dumps 10-15” snow? I’m skeptical of that. The CCB on Wednesday is the wild card and one to watch. Don’t think the initial wave tomorrow is a big deal. Im off today and on baby duty so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete as I’m not staring at the data like I would on a work day, but that’s what I see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, AllWeather said: I need a drink! These last two weeks have been incredible. As for our storm, I’ve been looking at this fully as two pieces for several days. Shortwave currently shooting through the Midwest streaks our way while a ribbon of vorticity behind it that phases with the northern stream. Meanwhile, the initial vort sort of phases/shears out as the phasing system begins to tilt. I’ll be honest, this is a head scratcher, but some things becoming clear. Will take heavy rates of snow to overcome the Sun angle and marginal BL temps this time of year. Then there’s the sleet potential to cut down on snow. I’d take the Tuesday snow maps and cut them AT LEAST by 50%. Even then, what accumulates will have a hard time on roads, unless it’s sleet, then that could make things slick. Then the Wednesday piece has the potential to give us good accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday. Again, banding is everything. Model wise, the Euro OP and ensembles have been VERY consistent and matched well the last few runs in a row. Before that, it was the GFS holding steady. The NAM run last night at 00z barely gave anything to this forum now all of a sudden dumps 10-15” snow? I’m skeptical of that. The CCB on Wednesday is the wild card and one to watch. Don’t think the initial wave tomorrow is a big deal. Im off today and on baby duty so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete as I’m not staring at the data like I would on a work day, but that’s what I see! Thanks Matt and dont worry about being off. Just come here and we'll keep you updated as whats going on.....hehe. We'll post some fun weenie maps that you can use tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Horst update: "a few slushy inches possible here" (6+ possible up in higher elevations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, AllWeather said: I need a drink! These last two weeks have been incredible. As for our storm, I’ve been looking at this fully as two pieces for several days. Shortwave currently shooting through the Midwest streaks our way while a ribbon of vorticity behind it that phases with the northern stream. Meanwhile, the initial vort sort of phases/shears out as the phasing system begins to tilt. I’ll be honest, this is a head scratcher, but some things becoming clear. Will take heavy rates of snow to overcome the Sun angle and marginal BL temps this time of year. Then there’s the sleet potential to cut down on snow. I’d take the Tuesday snow maps and cut them AT LEAST by 50%. Even then, what accumulates will have a hard time on roads, unless it’s sleet, then that could make things slick. Then the Wednesday piece has the potential to give us good accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday. Again, banding is everything. Model wise, the Euro OP and ensembles have been VERY consistent and matched well the last few runs in a row. Before that, it was the GFS holding steady. The NAM run last night at 00z barely gave anything to this forum now all of a sudden dumps 10-15” snow? I’m skeptical of that. The CCB on Wednesday is the wild card and one to watch. Don’t think the initial wave tomorrow is a big deal. Im off today and on baby duty so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete as I’m not staring at the data like I would on a work day, but that’s what I see! Thanks Matt for the update!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks good, but curious of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Precip panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Porsche said: Precip panel. Pretty much in line with the other model runs today. 1" line up towards Central PA. It is probably still going to be snowing after 7pm Wednesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 It total game on....and the nice thing is we are not waiting days. starting tomorrow. fasten the seat belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, paweather said: Pretty much in line with the other model runs today. 1" line up towards Central PA. It is probably still going to be snowing after 7pm Wednesday as well. Damn, thats a long event then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: Damn, thats a long event then I think it will still be snowing after midnight on Wednesday. LOL. Just depends where things line up. I don't think it is anymore whether the storm will happen it is now trying to figure out who is getting lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If only this were February 19, and not March 19, we'd be talking about a serious travel issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What I really like about the Euro is that the ccb starts to our southwest and comes over top. I don't like when they form nearby and move on. Very nice run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I’ve been waiting for a run(within 48 hours) like that all year long!!Temps look good too!! And that CCB!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Damn, thats a long event then This 12z euro run has roughly a quarter of the event qpf falling during the day tomorrow which unfortunately likely wont amount to much accumulation but always nice to see things whiten regardless. Then better rates start early on Wednesday with that set up posted above for 8am with the closed 500mb low and surface low hugging the coast shown above with this run producing roughly .75" qpf for our area over approx. 12-18 hours. Banding should look quite nice early Wednesday morning around the system the way the dynamics set up on this run and areas that can get under the best banding will be some big winners of the event. Long duration event overall indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Thermos look better on Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Horst makes a good point about climatology.....Lancaster greatest snowfall past the spring equinox is 6.5”.Let’s make history folks!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’ve been waiting for a run(within 48 hours) like that all year long!! Temps look good too!! And that CCB!! . Didnt this happen just last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Didnt this happen just last week?48 hours away I knew the writing was on the wall with that storm.This one just keeps getting better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 39 minutes ago, canderson said: If only this were February 19, and not March 19, we'd be talking about a serious travel issue. yeah I have to agree that it would wreck the area a few weeks back. Still....we take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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