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Central PA - March 2018


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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

actually it didnt.

you need to toggle from 0z to 12z through all panels.  That run is closer to epic than fail. 

500 also lookes moderately fantastic.  Doesnt close off but shows a slow progression once the transfer takes place.  

 

Thanks Nut. I am hoping the EURO holds. 

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11 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Man... been burned too many times getting excited this far out but this seems to be a pretty unique setup that is just about perfect for us up here. Definitely gaining confidence in a significant event.... now let's see what can go wrong :lol:

Buddy boy. Let me count the ways! ;)  

Truth is we really just need to see continuity right now, and so long as no big surprises, probably tomorrow night or Sunday will likely show some pretty fun solutions that will raise eyebrows or....rip out hair. 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Buddy boy. Let me count the ways! ;)  

Truth is we really just need to see continuity right now, and so long as no big surprises, probably tomorrow night or Sunday will likely show some pretty fun solutions that will raise eyebrows or....rip out hair. 

More likely this one (( rip out hair ))

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14 minutes ago, paweather said:

EURO way south. Unreal these models have no continuity at all this winter.  Cheers to NC this run! 

At the moment the greatest continuity belongs to the GFS.  I'm riding that train for the time being.  The king was dethroned with its most recent upgrade as we've seen over this past winter.

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

At the moment the greatest continuity belongs to the GFS.  I'm riding that train for the time being.  The king was dethroned with its most recent upgrade as we've seen over this past winter.

agreed. EURO was once the KING it didn't matter what any other model said but now this year far from it. They need to reverse the upgrade. I'll stick to the GFS as well and NAVGEM that also came in AMPED. 

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

agreed. EURO was once the KING it didn't matter what any other model said but now this year far from it. They need to reverse the upgrade. I'll stick to the GFS as well and NAVGEM that also came in AMPED. 

Or if we compromise between the 2, I’d take that and call it a winter. 

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Maybe the GFS eventually breaks some or all of our hearts with this system but man can we get some run to run continuity on the Euro? The op goes from big storm for the whole region at 0z to not even getting best precip north enough for DC to get in the best QPF today at 12z. Comparing 500mb it's definitely not as amplified with the features as the GFS. Last night's big run was a lot more similar to today's 12z GFS. It was just a couple days ago the Euro on the nw end of the envelope trying to cut the thing. Judging by some of the EC Ensemble stuff I saw posted in the MA thread it looks like it supports it's op pretty decently. Definitely a disconnect with model camps between GFS and Euro.

With more support at the moment going towards the storm being further north with other guidance included I'd probably lean more towards a GFS ensemble mean blend for now.. especially favoring I-80 south. I def still think northern parts of the state could be on the edge.. but I am leaning on this thing getting north enough over being completely suppressed under us. The blocking pattern is pretty stout but I don't think it is overwhelmingly so. 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Maybe the GFS eventually breaks some or all of our hearts with this system but man can we get some run to run continuity on the Euro? The op goes from big storm for the whole region at 0z to not even getting best precip north enough for DC to get in the best QPF today at 12z. Comparing 500mb it's definitely not as amplified with the features as the GFS. Last night's big run was a lot more similar to today's 12z GFS. It was just a couple days ago the Euro on the nw end of the envelope trying to cut the thing. Judging by some of the EC Ensemble stuff I saw posted in the MA thread it looks like it supports it's op pretty decently. Definitely a disconnect with model camps between GFS and Euro.

With more support at the moment going towards the storm being further north with other guidance included I'd probably lean more towards a GFS ensemble mean blend for now.. especially favoring I-80 south. I def still think northern parts of the state could be on the edge.. but I am leaning on this thing getting north enough over being completely suppressed under us. The blocking pattern is pretty stout but I don't think it is overwhelmingly so. 

Yeah man. I think a blended track is likely imo. Euro has not been stellar by any means and with many other camps in similar agreement I think we have a shot at something good. 

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10 hours ago, skiier04 said:

Man... been burned too many times getting excited this far out but this seems to be a pretty unique setup that is just about perfect for us up here. Definitely gaining confidence in a significant event.... now let's see what can go wrong :lol:

Just getting trolled by the models at this point haha. GFS on board with a straight up 0 for I80 north now.

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Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years...

The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us.

Let’s hope we reverse the trend today!

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years...

The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us.

Let’s hope we reverse the trend today!

Yeah...we need a good Nam'ing about now to raise spirits before the rest of the 12z suite. We lost almost everything else overnight.

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years...

The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us.

Let’s hope we reverse the trend today!

I was worried about the south trends hopeful 12z delivers. 

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