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Central PA - March 2018


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2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

FYI...3K NAM gives 3-4" to MDT and 4-5" to LNS using Kuchera, and 4-5" to MDT and 5-6" to LNS using straight 10:1.  Snow appears to just be winding down a little after midnight Monday evening with main accumulations between noon and midnight Monday/Monday night.

Id trust kuchera much more in March than 10:1. Thanks for the update man.  

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

This storm is dead....not even much qpf where it does hit...all of us seem to be in same boat.

This second storm was the whole reason I chose a California run over a Florida run. I figured going to Florida would have had me coming north right into it either Sunday or Monday. 

Now, it may be a non-event? :rolleyes:

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34 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This second storm was the whole reason I chose a California run over a Florida run. I figured going to Florida would have had me coming north right into it either Sunday or Monday. 

Now, it may be a non-event? :rolleyes:

Maybe a non-event in terms of a notable snowfall impact here in PA but there will certainly be more unsettled weather to contend with along the east coast corridor with the developing storm system. There is still a chance some snow ends up overspreading southern PA... I think 12z guidance today will finally start zeroing in on our fate with this system. Not sure where your at but if your running I-80 or I-70 things look generally good except for some snow in IL/MO/Iowa.

The coastal storm once it gets wound up looks to mop up the rest of SNE that the previous bomb missed (snow-wise) and otherwise impact New England as a whole once again with yet another sub 970mb low. When you look at the big picture, this pattern change to begin the first half of March has certainly delivered in the eastern US, with 2 very significant coastal storms (and likely a third on the way). When you look at the scope of our region (or the Mid-Atlantic), it has been largely a pattern change that came with major missed opportunities.

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Not sure where your at but if your running I-80 or I-70 things look generally good except for some snow in IL/MO/Iowa.

Nice write-up Mag. I only mentioned non event because I've been following the weather through this forum as it's hard to look at the models on my phone.

As for me, I'm in Lebec, CA right now. I delivered in LA and set up here. I have to take a 34 hour reset to put my available hours back to 70, then I can re-load for PA on Tuesday. I'll either load in the Bakersfield or Los Angeles areas, and likely be on I-40 to I-44 to I-70 coming home.

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I guess I am finally going to get my big storm, but it will be in Boston.  Our drive up to Boston tomorrow afternoon will not be a problem.  Getting to Mass General Tuesday from our hotel may be harder.  I was hoping that the worst of the storm would be after morning commute.  I don't care what happens once we get to the hospital as being snowed in there would be okay.  The T station is a couple of blocks from the hotel so if the roads are bad (and the T is still running) we can get to the hospital.  As long as we go with the flow, stay safe and get all of the medical stuff in, it will be a fun adventure!

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I may peek in once in a while to see if some last minute miracle happens, but I'm about cooked for the season.  Its been another bust (although slightly less painful than the last 2 thanks to an early start-which was a big win for me personally), but we dudded the rest of the way through down here, and at 3 in a row now, I'm accepting defeat and will look to be back next fall.  Warmies win again. and us snow lovers will wait 7 more months to start chatting about next season.  

To all that put time/energy into tracking, thanks for all of the input.  Mag/Heavy/Millville/showme and the rest of us weather weenies appreciate you coming in here.  I continue to learn and love winter weather disco.  And to the rest of my fellow snow hounds and weenies...cant wait to get at it again next year.  

If a GTG is put together, pm me and I'll be in if schedule allows.

 

Have a great few months.  Cave is callin me.  :ph34r:

Nut

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I may peek in once in a while to see if some last minute miracle happens, but I'm about cooked for the season.  Its been another bust (although slightly less painful than the last 2 thanks to an early start-which was a big win for me personally), but we dudded the rest of the way through down here, and at 3 in a row now, I'm accepting defeat and will look to be back next fall.  Warmies win again. and us snow lovers will wait 7 more months to start chatting about next season.  

To all that put time/energy into tracking, thanks for all of the input.  Mag/Heavy/Millville/showme and the rest of us weather weenies appreciate you coming in here.  I continue to learn and love winter weather disco.  And to the rest of my fellow snow hounds and weenies...cant wait to get at it again next year.  

If a GTG is put together, pm me and I'll be in if schedule allows.

 

Have a great few months.  Cave is callin me.  :ph34r:

Nut

Ditto all of that. And see you this later this week/weekend to track next week's miss...

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It's been snowing here for the past hour with intensity slowly increasing.  Temp has dropped from 35.7 down to 33.4.  No accumulations yet on any surface, but we are at the highest sun point of the day.  I wasn't expecting it to be snowing here this afternoon.

12Z runs give MDT anywhere from 0.1" to almost 1.0" by tomorrow morning.  Let's see how that intensity lasts as the afternoon progresses.

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Almost approaching moderate intensity here now.  Temp down to 32.7.  I expect to begin to see some signs of accumulating on shaded grassy areas pretty soon.  Dew point around 24 degrees would seem to ensure a further drop in temp down to at or just below 32 degrees within the next hour.  Maybe after writing this storm completely off we might end up with a small surprise by morning.  At this point any accumulation would be a surprise.

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Cirrus storm briefly upgraded to a half decent burst of snow around here a bit ago (no accumulation), Looks like a pretty heavy band working the central counties southeast of State College through Lewistown up to just SE of IPT. 511 cams around Lewistown and the 7 Mountains area are starting to show accums. Band is pretty stationary so might have to watch for some surprises. 

I see the 12z models are trying to reel us back in around the Day 8-9 range. I wonder what creative way that one finds to miss us haha. The pattern does still look supportive to potentially forcing a low under us, so we could still pull off a late season storm (with all the late March disclaimers obviously). 

 

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Light snow started falling again in Marysville around 7 pm & I now officially have a car topper. There is also a light coating on the grass. 

MDT had 1.5 mile visibility at 8 pm & it looks like this band might hang around the Susquehanna Valley for a few hours. There is also another band of snow approaching from western PA. The HRRR & NAM, & Euro put out 1-2 inches around Harrisburg, so maybe MDT can score more than a Trace with this storm.

This storm was difficult to watch develop the last few days when it became apparent that CTP would miss good snow to the south & north. We have had a great pattern, but just bad luck this March.

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It is ripping snow here right now with that new band coming from western PA, an easy coating on the ground so far.

More loose change to collect in a season full of it. I can somehow cash out 35.4" at the Coinstar machine with all those pennies and nickels. 

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There is about .5 of an inch of snow here in Marysville with steady light to sometimes moderate snow still falling. The grass, trees, & car tops are all covered. It’s a nice winter scene out there now, despite not being near the bullseye of this storm again.

MDT has 1.5 mile visibility at 11pm with light snow. Hopefully they record more than a trace with this event.

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