canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Suicide in the MA forum over the NAM. What’s the deal up here - is it so east mdt gets little precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Suicide in the MA forum over the NAM. What’s the deal up here - is it so east mdt gets little precip? Heard the Nam was 50-75 miles east. That's a pretty good jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, pawatch said: Heard the Nam was 50-75 miles east. That's a pretty good jump. That’d be borderline advisory stuff here and most likely bare pavement everywhere. Would be a bad look for the state being closed ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, canderson said: Suicide in the MA forum over the NAM. What’s the deal up here - is it so east mdt gets little precip? It's east but its back to what it has been for the last few 0z runs - which is interesting because 0z runs have been to the east and less for many of us and then the 12z runs have jumped west and have been good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, djr5001 said: It's east but its back to what it has been for the last few 0z runs - which is interesting because 0z runs have been to the east and less for many of us and then the 12z runs have jumped west and have been good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Horst just tweeted very sharp gradient west of river.4 to 8 Lancaster CityBest chance of 8+ eastern Lancaster County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Would ctp drop the WSW to a WAA for Dauphin County, or just let it ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Short range models are east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Would ctp drop the WSW to a WAA for Dauphin County, or just let it ride?Gotta let it ride as any band that makes it that way could put them in warning criteria.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 While I expected the shift east I thought it would be back towards 12z run. That was a rather large shift east in the 0z NAMs. Not saying it doesn’t happen like that but not sure that it does. We’ve seen several systems over preform further west than modeled this year and I still think areas just west of river may do alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Gotta let it ride as any band that makes it that way could put them in warning criteria. . agreed. chips are down, momma nature's roulette wheel is going. time to go to "nowcast" mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: agreed. chips are down, momma nature's roulette wheel is going. time to go to "nowcast" mode. And it won’t take but 2-3 hours of ripping to get close to hi end advisory low end warn criteria anyway. Let er rip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks like “snizzle” has moved in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 RAPs look bad..but at this point time to just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: RAPs look bad..but at this point time to just watch. And have they ever looked good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snow starting to mix in. Here we go. Good luck to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks like all snow in hbg after rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Light snow in Lititz in lanco. Here is to waking up to some heavy snow and hopefully it drifts westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This has so big bust potential. The radar is due east with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, paweather said: This has so big bust potential. The radar is due east with everything. I called off all our snow removal help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Man what a brutal shift in model guidance overnight for the subforum for such short lead time. Pretty much all models have shifted the heavy snow with the coastal east, maybe clipping Lancaster County but basically making this a SE PA into central/northern NJ, eastern NY, etc thing. Most of CTP's warning counties would have trouble verifying advisories much less warnings by the looks of all the overnight stuff. Latest near term guidance (HRRR and RAP) doesn't look much better. Aside from that, the snow band associated with the parent system working west central PA currently and will need to be watched this morning for some issues, especially in the Laurels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 It’s like 85-90 miles east of modeled - MDT might not see accumulating snow. I guess on my day off I can do some cold weather yard work ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Ummm wth did nws up totals at 4am....not smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Advisory went from 2 to 4 up to 3 to 6.....and trends looked like garbage...odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s like 85-90 miles east of modeled - MDT might not see accumulating snow. I guess on my day off I can do some cold weather yard work ... Enjoy it, because everybody is going to remember this for the next five years and refuse to take appropriate action when needed, resulting in people's personal safety being put in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Enjoy it, because everybody is going to remember this for the next five years and refuse to take appropriate action when needed, resulting in people's personal safety being put in jeopardy. Next test could come Monday if that storm moves 75 miles north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Radar looks messy for....well everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Next test could come Monday if that storm moves 75 miles north. . It would be a bit...frustrating for sure if we watch NYC get yet another shellacking today and then sit by and watch Richmond get blitzed with the next one. Having said that, I'll be much happier for the VA people than I am today for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Watching the radar to the south, there is a band of snow developing around the Baltimore metro area that is moving due north as it organizes. Still think we see some accumulations down this way, the problem is at this time of year we need rates during the day. We'll see what happens but I'd be a little surprised if we don't pick up a few slushy inches, particularly on non-paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I feel bad for you guys in the southern tier. So close to a big storm and the models take off east. This winter the models are pretty frustrating. Good Luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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