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Central PA - March 2018


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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Next week's storm kind of has that "feel" to it...long ways to go, but the potential is there for a memorable storm. 

It sure does, that period has had my eye for the last several days as I saw it as a better potential setup than the upcoming event, although some of us should get snow out of that too. It does seem like models have went the other way with that one overnight, having a more separate and further east/northeast coastal development.

At any rate, we reset a colder regime behind the next system and build ridging out west to combine with what is looks like a nice west based -NAO and high heights over Canada. I know there appears to be an initial piece of energy out front that could influence how much of a system we have for the timeframe in question. But other than that, it's really only a question of where that next system sets up and how strong it is IMO. Will it strike our region directly or will it finally throw the Mid-Atlantic region a big storm... or will it do that and split our region in half? -NAO not progged to be as dominant as it is initially right now, so not necessarily worried about suppression. Given the time range of this potential I would expect the usual model business but I think we should generally maintain the strong storm signal. The different ensembles vary but they all clearly show this system which is notable considering the range we're talking.  Overnight runs like the 0z Euro and 6z GFS were throwing out really big numbers, although the Canadian lost it. Present with the GFS/Euro were the same tremendous 850mb u wind anomalies (easterly fetch) as the recently departed severe nor'easter... on the order of more than -5 to -6 standard deviations. The overall setup will favor this type of thing if we bring the kind of robust system out of the Gulf States as being portrayed currently by the GFS/Euro guidance. 

Sidenote to add on the overnight model suite.. Euro EPS control run aimed the focus of potential snowfall at our region. 

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Gfs run this morning for March 12 let’s just hope this holds next 20 runs. Is that too much to ask. As Nut said all in. Euro was basically Maryland line south with 15 to 20 inches. Around 8 inches into southern tier. 

 

I know I shouldn’t post clown maps that far out, but it is to good not to take a peek.

3C6A3355-7BC1-41A7-80A0-3623FAA1B99D.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Very busy weekend so i wasn't checking in. I open this page and my heart stopped. Where can i sign up for the bandwagon you guys have going on. 

I hereby acknowledge that I'm a weenie, and will do whatever necessary to will next week's storm to crush our sub-forum. 

Signature: _____________________________________

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Very busy weekend so i wasn't checking in. I open this page and my heart stopped. Where can i sign up for the bandwagon you guys have going on. 

The good news is that this period has been “on the radar” for a couple weeks, but as we’ve all seen this show before, and after last weeks fail, some started beating the it’s over drum. The NAO has consisantly been headed to favorable and now that it is....models are responding. 

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IF this comes to light, this will be a good lesson in the drivers for good weather events in these parts, as we've been swinging at curveballs n changups all winter (and for the last few) with the EPO/AO and PNA, and various renditions thereof.  I say that because the NAO has largely been MIA for that last 5+years.  

Track on......

:)

 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

The good news is that this period has been “on the radar” for a couple weeks, but as we’ve all seen this show before, and after last weeks fail, some started beating the it’s over drum. The NAO has consisantly been headed to favorable and now that it is....models are responding. 

Just like the Eagles, we are not giving up!

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I tend to believe that the NAM is onto to something (as opposed to on something) but the problem is, next run that heavy stripe could very easily shift east 50-75 miles and I'm suddenly looking at an inch or two of slush. 

Sure is purty to look at for now for us eastern peeps though. If we can pop that coastal as far south as say OBX, that map could verify. 

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2 hours ago, paweather5 said:

Gfs run this morning for March 12 let’s just hope this holds next 20 runs. Is that too much to ask. As Nut said all in. Euro was basically Maryland line south with 15 to 20 inches. Around 8 inches into southern tier. 

 

I know I shouldn’t post clown maps that far out, but it is to good not to take a peek.

3C6A3355-7BC1-41A7-80A0-3623FAA1B99D.jpeg

Epic run ! Let’s do this !

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I tend to believe that the NAM is onto to something (as opposed to on something) but the problem is, next run that heavy stripe could very easily shift east 50-75 miles and I'm suddenly looking at an inch or two of slush. 

Sure is purty to look at for now for us eastern peeps though. If we can pop that coastal as far south as say OBX, that map could verify. 

but you also know that the NAM is usually 20-40 overdone w/ perty snow panels, so keeping that into perspective helps.  BUT.....if the big guns start showing that, I'd be giddy w/ excitement.  NAM's have scored a few, and now would be a fantastic time to add a notch to the belt.  

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2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I hereby acknowledge that I'm a weenie, and will do whatever necessary to will this weeks and next week's storm to crush our sub-forum. 

Signature: snowalot_____________________________________

Corrected! Because where there is a group willing it to happen there is a way!

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5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here is the more conservative Kuchera output for 12K nam...still looks amazing...and yet again what a gradient between extreme western end of Cumberland county and eastern end...

snku_acc.us_ne.png

and its not too surprising that the kuchera output looks similar to 10:1, as this pattern is more of a "clean snow" one....not dirty sneaky snow kinda stuff that has lots of taint factored in.  

Man if the globals jump in....it may be a wild ride in here for the next 2 weeks till pattern breaks down.

 

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Nice to see LANCO in the southern bullseye around 17"...

Remember, the NAM is the model that ultimately got the Jan 2016 3-footer storm correct while the GFS remained clueless until right before the event.

My favorite storm ever - and the NAM was showing it for three straight days (each run progressing better) where the other models were going the opposite direction. Blind squirrel, nut caveat of course!

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

My favorite storm ever - and the NAM was showing it for three straight days (each run progressing better) where the other models were going the opposite direction. Blind squirrel, nut caveat of course!

hey...........

:snowing:

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