Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,341
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    snow01
    Newest Member
    snow01
    Joined
eyewall

Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's something like that.  84" maybe?  

I think they've been averaging more than that in the aggregate since 2000 though but don't quote me on that.  

And yeah maybe that's why I assumed you averaged more, seems most years recently you are 80-110" haha.

This is true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 The take away is BOS and most of SNE exceeded LEW which is rare and hence the ratter or near ratter designation.

True... ALB literally doubled LEW's totals that winter, which I can't imagine happens very often, if it ever has in the past.  

ALB finished with 109" if I remember correctly (I lived there that winter).  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jeff, I wouldn't worry too much...I won't read John's until I do my own this week, but I am guessing the bad eggs for your hood were moderate events. Pending Sept-Oct MEI, I don't think we will have that type of STJ this season.

That would be my take Ray, Probably Mod-Strong Ninos the bad years, But not sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would be my take Ray, Probably Mod-Strong Ninos the bad years, But not sure.

It's so hard to worry about any of this pre-season outlook stuff with regards to an upcoming winter.  All it takes is for a mythical variable X to show up and the winter goes much differently than the outlooks expect.  Some whale fart in the arctic can be a game changer, lol.  If anything for New England you have to continue to be optimistic given what's transpired over the past two decades as a whole... persistence forecast until proven wrong?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I think they've been averaging more than that in the aggregate since 2000 though but don't quote me on that.

Just to follow up on BTV's snowfall, like most other sites in New England it has seen quite the uptick in snowfall in the past two decades.

Think of it this way, between 1892 and 1999 they only exceeded 100" of seasonal snowfall in 6 winters.  So for 107 years, there were 6 winters with 100+ inches of snowfall.  Between 2000-2018 though, they've exceeded 100" on 4 occasions. 

So for the first 107 years of snowfall records, they exceeded 100" on average once every 17.8 years.  In the past 18 years though, the rate of exceeding 100" in a season is once every 4.5 years.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On October 28, 2018 at 2:51 PM, frd said:

Ray, what are your thoughts,  if you are able to talk  about this prior to your seasonal outlook , as some here are stating the Modaki El Nino is a no go,  but instead we will have a hybrid El Nino . 

You agree and does it really matter? And. can not things still change in the weeks ahead. Also, there is the debate as well about the high frequency forcing still being West based in the winter regardless.  

I think the "hybrid" talk is kind of a cop out to provide an avenue towards a desired outcome. I call BS on that crap. What "hybrid" essentially means is that this won't be one of the most extreme modoki values in history, but that does not make it an east-based event. I made this same mistake back in 2015...pulled the "hybrid" card because it wasn't as extremely east based as 1997 and 1982...but at the end of the day, it was still an east-based super el nino. I should have gone warmer. I was right to guarantee the mid atlantic blizzard because of that, but emphasized it too much.

I understand taking the severity of the value into consideration, but discounting analogs like 2009 because of that is ridiculous. I think that analog has another more important issue, but not that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On October 29, 2018 at 8:50 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Cold Niño December off top of my head....2009, 2002, 1977, 1976, 1972, 1969, 1968, 1963. 

Warm....2015, 2014, 2006, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1987, 1982, 1979, 1965, 1957

id prob put years like 2004 and 1997 closer to normal.

 

The warm Decembers tend to be higher magnitude warmth than cold in Ninos. 

December 1968 may have been cold, but it wasn't snowy around here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTV long term mean is 72.5" but I don't know how useful that is because there was a fundamental difference in the snowfall averages prior to 1950s/1960s. They've obviously been high since 2000 as well as PF already noted but there is another clear step in the middle 20th century. 

The totals were definitely putrid before the current site in the first 4 decades of the 20th century. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 1968 may have been cold, but it wasn't snowy around here.

We prob got unlucky that month. It was a really good pattern. Classic -PNA/-NAO pattern. Didn't look anything like El Niño though...could've fooled anyone into thinking it was a classic December La Niña, lol. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm probably going to end up using the arrows again....any time I try to download anything, there is always an issue. 

Downloaded krita, and it did absolutely nothing. Sends me an error report.

I thought the arrows are easy to read at least from my eyes. It’s not terrible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, well...get used to them. Anything I try to download from the internet doesn't take, and the MAC store isn't letting me make any purchases.

Infuriating.

Talk to guys making maps using MACs-probably the majority of the folks doing it.  Not a big deal though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just to follow up on BTV's snowfall, like most other sites in New England it has seen quite the uptick in snowfall in the past two decades.

Think of it this way, between 1892 and 1999 they only exceeded 100" of seasonal snowfall in 6 winters.  So for 107 years, there were 6 winters with 100+ inches of snowfall.  Between 2000-2018 though, they've exceeded 100" on 4 occasions. 

So for the first 107 years of snowfall records, they exceeded 100" on average once every 17.8 years.  In the past 18 years though, the rate of exceeding 100" in a season is once every 4.5 years.

This is a trend that really fascinates me for northern locations. Same in Detroit. Average snowfall was 40" in the 20th century but moved into the mid 40s in the 2000s and average the past decade is 55". The avg is similar to Boston, but totally different climate. With our type of climate it's usually quite hard to get a really snowy Winter or really low snow Winter (ie straying too far from climo; less than 30" or more than 60" rare). From 1880-2002, there were only 11 winters that saw more than 60". From 2003-present there were 7 winters that saw more than 60". So 11 winters in the first 123 years of record and 7 in the last 16 years.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/3/2018 at 11:47 AM, weathafella said:

He did a good job with the presentation.   I question the severe 2012-13.   My memory of that is snowy but above normal temperatures.

He typed 2012-13 & 2013-14 but i think he meant 2013-14 & 2014-15. Just like his outlook was typed 2017-18 but he meant 2018-19. Dt is very knowledgeable but the king of typos and grammatical errors lol

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

He typed 2012-13 & 2013-14 but i think he meant 2013-14 & 2014-15. Just like his outlook was typed 2017-18 but he meant 2018-19. Dt is very knowledgeable but the king of typos and grammatical errors lol

Hopefully, beyond any typos, he’s right on the money with that forecast! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the "hybrid" talk is kind of a cop out to provide an avenue towards a desired outcome. I call BS on that crap. What "hybrid" essentially means is that this won't be one of the most extreme modoki values in history, but that does not make it an east-based event. I made this same mistake back in 2015...pulled the "hybrid" card because it wasn't as extremely east based as 1997 and 1982...but at the end of the day, it was still an east-based super el nino. I should have gone warmer. I was right to guarantee the mid atlantic blizzard because of that, but emphasized it too much.

I understand taking the severity of the value into consideration, but discounting analogs like 2009 because of that is ridiculous. I think that analog has another more important issue, but not that.

I await with eager anticipation to see your analog blends / weighting in your seasonal forecast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You only had 56" in 2002-03?  I didn't know it was that much of a dud over there.  BTV had 85". 

Only 67.8" at my place in 02-03, about the same degree of ratter as LEW given my 90" avg.  Had a nice 7" storm in mid-Nov and cold wx that kept the ground white from then until early April, 13.8" dump in early Jan, but the rest was suppression city.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is paint.NET compatible with a MAC?

Anyone?

I don't believe so. Didn't realize you're a MAC user.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We go big or go home last nights EPS monthly says oh hi 2002 2003 Rockin Dec Jan Feb

Are you allowed to share? :weenie:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/30/2018 at 10:09 AM, tamarack said:

Farther north in 2005, we didn't record a 4" storm until Feb (late Jan blizz was a 2" graze.)  Of course, that first 4+ was a 21" dump with thunder, and we had 60" from 2/10 thru 3/12.

that almost sounds like 1966-67 lol except we had a big January thaw after a good December and then historic February and March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/30/2018 at 11:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a similar outcome to Dec 2004...it probably won't be an early shut out like 2014, nor as furious a second half, obviously. (duh)

Yeah I envision an early to mid December event or two before the thaw so winter goes into hibernation for a few weeks before getting into the meat of the big pattern around mid January and beyond.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a trend that really fascinates me for northern locations. Same in Detroit. Average snowfall was 40" in the 20th century but moved into the mid 40s in the 2000s and average the past decade is 55". The avg is similar to Boston, but totally different climate. With our type of climate it's usually quite hard to get a really snowy Winter or really low snow Winter (ie straying too far from climo; less than 30" or more than 60" rare). From 1880-2002, there were only 11 winters that saw more than 60". From 2003-present there were 7 winters that saw more than 60". So 11 winters in the first 123 years of record and 7 in the last 16 years.

Thats because you dont rely on big snow events for your seasonal totals, so your variance isn't as great.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just to follow up on BTV's snowfall, like most other sites in New England it has seen quite the uptick in snowfall in the past two decades.

Think of it this way, between 1892 and 1999 they only exceeded 100" of seasonal snowfall in 6 winters.  So for 107 years, there were 6 winters with 100+ inches of snowfall.  Between 2000-2018 though, they've exceeded 100" on 4 occasions. 

So for the first 107 years of snowfall records, they exceeded 100" on average once every 17.8 years.  In the past 18 years though, the rate of exceeding 100" in a season is once every 4.5 years.

We have seen major trends towards more big precip events and much higher humidity.  What happened this summer was beyond unprecedented.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×