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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm probably going to end up using the arrows again....any time I try to download anything, there is always an issue. 

Downloaded krita, and it did absolutely nothing. Sends me an error report.

I thought the arrows are easy to read at least from my eyes. It’s not terrible.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, well...get used to them. Anything I try to download from the internet doesn't take, and the MAC store isn't letting me make any purchases.

Infuriating.

Talk to guys making maps using MACs-probably the majority of the folks doing it.  Not a big deal though.

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just to follow up on BTV's snowfall, like most other sites in New England it has seen quite the uptick in snowfall in the past two decades.

Think of it this way, between 1892 and 1999 they only exceeded 100" of seasonal snowfall in 6 winters.  So for 107 years, there were 6 winters with 100+ inches of snowfall.  Between 2000-2018 though, they've exceeded 100" on 4 occasions. 

So for the first 107 years of snowfall records, they exceeded 100" on average once every 17.8 years.  In the past 18 years though, the rate of exceeding 100" in a season is once every 4.5 years.

This is a trend that really fascinates me for northern locations. Same in Detroit. Average snowfall was 40" in the 20th century but moved into the mid 40s in the 2000s and average the past decade is 55". The avg is similar to Boston, but totally different climate. With our type of climate it's usually quite hard to get a really snowy Winter or really low snow Winter (ie straying too far from climo; less than 30" or more than 60" rare). From 1880-2002, there were only 11 winters that saw more than 60". From 2003-present there were 7 winters that saw more than 60". So 11 winters in the first 123 years of record and 7 in the last 16 years.

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On 11/3/2018 at 11:47 AM, weathafella said:

He did a good job with the presentation.   I question the severe 2012-13.   My memory of that is snowy but above normal temperatures.

He typed 2012-13 & 2013-14 but i think he meant 2013-14 & 2014-15. Just like his outlook was typed 2017-18 but he meant 2018-19. Dt is very knowledgeable but the king of typos and grammatical errors lol

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the "hybrid" talk is kind of a cop out to provide an avenue towards a desired outcome. I call BS on that crap. What "hybrid" essentially means is that this won't be one of the most extreme modoki values in history, but that does not make it an east-based event. I made this same mistake back in 2015...pulled the "hybrid" card because it wasn't as extremely east based as 1997 and 1982...but at the end of the day, it was still an east-based super el nino. I should have gone warmer. I was right to guarantee the mid atlantic blizzard because of that, but emphasized it too much.

I understand taking the severity of the value into consideration, but discounting analogs like 2009 because of that is ridiculous. I think that analog has another more important issue, but not that.

I await with eager anticipation to see your analog blends / weighting in your seasonal forecast. 

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You only had 56" in 2002-03?  I didn't know it was that much of a dud over there.  BTV had 85". 

Only 67.8" at my place in 02-03, about the same degree of ratter as LEW given my 90" avg.  Had a nice 7" storm in mid-Nov and cold wx that kept the ground white from then until early April, 13.8" dump in early Jan, but the rest was suppression city.

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On 10/30/2018 at 10:09 AM, tamarack said:

Farther north in 2005, we didn't record a 4" storm until Feb (late Jan blizz was a 2" graze.)  Of course, that first 4+ was a 21" dump with thunder, and we had 60" from 2/10 thru 3/12.

that almost sounds like 1966-67 lol except we had a big January thaw after a good December and then historic February and March.

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On 10/30/2018 at 11:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a similar outcome to Dec 2004...it probably won't be an early shut out like 2014, nor as furious a second half, obviously. (duh)

Yeah I envision an early to mid December event or two before the thaw so winter goes into hibernation for a few weeks before getting into the meat of the big pattern around mid January and beyond.

 

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a trend that really fascinates me for northern locations. Same in Detroit. Average snowfall was 40" in the 20th century but moved into the mid 40s in the 2000s and average the past decade is 55". The avg is similar to Boston, but totally different climate. With our type of climate it's usually quite hard to get a really snowy Winter or really low snow Winter (ie straying too far from climo; less than 30" or more than 60" rare). From 1880-2002, there were only 11 winters that saw more than 60". From 2003-present there were 7 winters that saw more than 60". So 11 winters in the first 123 years of record and 7 in the last 16 years.

Thats because you dont rely on big snow events for your seasonal totals, so your variance isn't as great.

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just to follow up on BTV's snowfall, like most other sites in New England it has seen quite the uptick in snowfall in the past two decades.

Think of it this way, between 1892 and 1999 they only exceeded 100" of seasonal snowfall in 6 winters.  So for 107 years, there were 6 winters with 100+ inches of snowfall.  Between 2000-2018 though, they've exceeded 100" on 4 occasions. 

So for the first 107 years of snowfall records, they exceeded 100" on average once every 17.8 years.  In the past 18 years though, the rate of exceeding 100" in a season is once every 4.5 years.

We have seen major trends towards more big precip events and much higher humidity.  What happened this summer was beyond unprecedented.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

that almost sounds like 1966-67 lol except we had a big January thaw after a good December and then historic February and March.

66-67 produced about 100" at my NNJ home, a bit over 30" each for Dec, Feb, Mar surrounding a 2" Jan, then 4.5" in late April, including 3" on 4/27.  The 15" on 12/24 was especially noteworthy for me - did not know thundersnow was even possible before hearing it loud and clear as I walked out of the woods from a small game hunt.

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23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

66-67 produced about 100" at my NNJ home, a bit over 30" each for Dec, Feb, Mar surrounding a 2" Jan, then 4.5" in late April, including 3" on 4/27.  The 15" on 12/24 was especially noteworthy for me - did not know thundersnow was even possible before hearing it loud and clear as I walked out of the woods from a small game hunt.

That and 1960-61 were the two greatest winters of a very snowy 60s decade.  I would take 1966-67 based on longevity- it was amazing!  I also like the contrast of a very hot/dry 1966 summer followed by that kind of snowy and cold winter lol.  

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5 hours ago, tamarack said:

Only 67.8" at my place in 02-03, about the same degree of ratter as LEW given my 90" avg.  Had a nice 7" storm in mid-Nov and cold wx that kept the ground white from then until early April, 13.8" dump in early Jan, but the rest was suppression city.

Yup, A frigid airmass can be our foe

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL out of many similar setups that have been good for you all. You and Tamarack need to hold each other and talk out your fears with a Will as a therapist.

Well, I stated my case earlier, Its one thing if there close to avg, But there is some pretty good duds in a similar setup too, More then i like seeing.

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