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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

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6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Statistics going back to 1948 show strong correlation differences. I once researched it. 

Show me the data.

MEI is specificly designed to measure the ocean and air inteface that is the very essense of ENSO.

1968-69 was a moderate el nino with a weak MEI....it was all late bloomer, miller B east season.

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15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where do we find more than the past 10 years?  Its Canadian snow cover that been impressive this year, not Eurasia. 

Not sure exactly how his calculation is done; I'm sure it's probably in his paper. But here is a link to Eurasia snow cover for Oct from 1967-2017. 2018 is not updated yet.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/eurasia/10

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3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Heads I win, tails I win.

lol

If winter ends up epic I’m sure it was the last 2 days of October that made the difference!

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  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said:

When does the November update for the Euro come in? Should be in the next few days, yes?

Ben Noll made some euro posts on October 5th last month. Weather.us has the monthly data on the 11th. Ukmet is also on the 11th. Nmme comes out on the 8th. 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How did you do in 1977-1978?

That one was above avg 96.20", 86-87 was 97.20", 94-95 was 49.90", 02-03 was 56.60", 14-15 was 118.20" so its kind of can go either way, I'm not sure what type of Nino's those were though.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What were your duds from the '18 analog set?

These are from what eartlight posted, Where are the others?

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49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That one was above avg 96.20", 86-87 was 97.20", 94-95 was 49.90", 02-03 was 56.60", 14-15 was 118.20" so its kind of can go either way, I'm not sure what type of Nino's those were though.

You only had 56" in 2002-03?  I didn't know it was that much of a dud over there.  BTV had 85". 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You only had 56" in 2002-03?  I didn't know it was that much of a dud over there.  BTV had 85". 

Isn’t that climo for BTV?  Interesting SNE was 150-200% depending on location.   BOS about 175% snow climo.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Isn’t that climo for BTV?

Yeah... is 56" climo for Lewiston?  Seemed low.  I figured LEW and BTV had similar climo totals.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah... is 56" climo for Lewiston?  Seemed low.  I figured LEW and BTV had similar climo totals.

70"

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

70"

Interesting.  I would've guessed at least a foot higher.  Just figured BTV is a snowfall pit locally for NNE and you seem to do well there that they'd be about the same.  So your average is about the mid-point between say ALB climo and BTV climo if compared to interior sites.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting.  I would've guessed at least a foot higher.  Just figured BTV is a snowfall pit locally for NNE and you seem to do well there that they'd be about the same.  So your average is about the mid-point between say ALB climo and BTV climo if compared to interior sites.

What is BTV's annual totals? 85",  Last 10 yrs or so we would be more inline with BTV's though, Other then 09-10, We have been well above avg.

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 The take away is BOS and most of SNE exceeded LEW which is rare and hence the ratter or near ratter designation.

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On 10/23/2018 at 2:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was only really kind of a dud in far NNE...esp up into Maine...though it was frigid there. But elsewhere it was a pretty monster winter. ORH had their 4th snowiest winter on record that season and only 1993-1994 was a colder winter there in the past 3+ decades (for BOS '02-'03 was actually colder than '93-'94 believe it or not and 5th coldest since Logan airport became the site ). 

It def gets the reputation as a Mid-Atlantic centric winter but the monster snows were actually spread out much further than just that region. 

 

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 The take away is BOS and most of SNE exceeded LEW which is rare and hence the ratter or near ratter designation.

Of course, Will had a better memory of it then i did, I had to look it up but when i saw what the totals were, Now i knew why i didn't remember it...............:lol:

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What is BTV's annual totals? 85",  Last 10 yrs or so we would be more inline with BTV's though, Other then 09-10, We have been well above avg.

Yeah it's something like that.  84" maybe?  

I think they've been averaging more than that in the aggregate since 2000 though but don't quote me on that.  

And yeah maybe that's why I assumed you averaged more, seems most years recently you are 80-110" haha.

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