LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not. Don't expect much in December. I remember how nervous people were in 2014-2015 and look how that turned out Jan 20 and later..... Jan 20 seems to be our new "turning point" for winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 4 hours ago, stadiumwave said: 63 & 76 yes. 53 & 76 no...for east. But ORH_wxman had some good years for cold DEC posted above. Again, it's really about timing. I have a hunch we see some cold in spells in DEC. All my comments were based strictly on my analog years. Analog blend sdo not always pan out. A good outlook will use analog blends as a tool but pity anyone that ignores trends & makes a winter outlook based "solely"on analogs. That's why its smart to wait until Thanksgiving. I certainly hope for some wintry periods in DEC! It just seems fitting with the holidays Yes classically we seem to get our snowy periods early to mid December while late December is our "thaw" period. I could see that happening. An early snow appetizer or two Dec 1-20, then the thaw could be like Dec 20-Jan 20, with the main course of winter snows to come Jan 20 to Mar 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes classically we seem to get our snowy periods early to mid December while late December is our "thaw" period. I could see that happening. An early snow appetizer or two Dec 1-20, then the thaw could be like Dec 20-Jan 20, with the main course of winter snows to come Jan 20 to Mar 20. Corresponds well with the period of max occurrence of noreasters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure what you mean. I was postulating (hoping) that Dec is the “worst”, while still not that bad, because Jan and Feb are going to be tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 You NE folks will love this outlook: http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yes classically we seem to get our snowy periods early to mid December while late December is our "thaw" period. Last year's thaw froze dees nutz off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Last year's thaw froze dees nutz off Last winter, all I remember from the early part is a huge windy snowstorm in January that was one of the longest duration of blizzard conditions I have ever seen (a true whiteout for 6 hours!) and then it somehow got to 80 degrees in February with bugs showing up everywhere, and then it went back to stormy in March and eventually the greatest late March snowstorm I've ever seen and then another snow storm to start April that snowed out the Yankees home opener. All this was followed by literally the worst allergy season I've ever had, I had to take allergy pills for 2 months after the weather started to warm up. I couldn't breathe- even inside my house! And then the heat and humidity started in early June and by then my allergies were finally gone. We had another allergy season in the fall but it was much shorter as the heat and humidity finally came to and end in mid-October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Last Dec 26th through 1-7 was the coldest 12 day period for that period ever at BDL 1 8.4 2018-01-07 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Last year's thaw froze dees nutz off Many didn't expect a thaw last Dec...I know that I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I remember how nervous people were in 2014-2015 and look how that turned out Jan 20 and later..... Jan 20 seems to be our new "turning point" for winters. Bingo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bingo. I’d rather not bank on a historic stretch. If winter doesn’t start until MLK Day, we worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d rather not bank on a historic stretch. If winter doesn’t start until MLK Day, we worry. I wouldn't. It could be earlier, though. I am going to start writing this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Pattern didn't flip until around MLK in 2005 as well. Though unlike 2014-2015, we were able to sneak a couple snow events in before that in early January and late December even though the pattern wasn't that great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern didn't flip until around MLK in 2005 as well. Though unlike 2014-2015, we were able to sneak a couple snow events in before that in early January and late December even though the pattern wasn't that great. Farther north in 2005, we didn't record a 4" storm until Feb (late Jan blizz was a 2" graze.) Of course, that first 4+ was a 21" dump with thunder, and we had 60" from 2/10 thru 3/12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Beyond the analogs, the prospects of a stratospheric vortex disruption are becoming more likely in the next few weeks. This could allow for some cold air to filter in during Dec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern didn't flip until around MLK in 2005 as well. Though unlike 2014-2015, we were able to sneak a couple snow events in before that in early January and late December even though the pattern wasn't that great. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a similar outcome to Dec 2004...it probably won't be an early shut out like 2014, nor as furious a second half, obviously. (duh) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Beyond the analogs, the prospects of a stratospheric vortex disruption are becoming more likely in the next few weeks. This could allow for some cold air to filter in during Dec. Why? Admittedly, I have not been tuned in much over the past 10 days or so bc of the move, but strat. was pretty chilly last I saw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Beyond the analogs, the prospects of a stratospheric vortex disruption are becoming more likely in the next few weeks. This could allow for some cold air to filter in during Dec. Judah? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Judah? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Judah? He was just cancelling winter last week. This is what happens when allow one indicator to inform your entire "outlook". The more prudent course of action would be to consider the SAI while formulating thoughts regarding the early season behavior of the polar fields. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? Admittedly, I have not been tuned in much over the past 10 days or so bc of the move, but strat. was pretty chilly last I saw... Vertical wave activity flux is predicted to have a large uptick in the next week or two, with models beginning to show the possibility for a strong Scandinavian block, reinforced by consistent wave breaking in the North Atlantic. Obviously this is predicted, but model skill in terms of the stratosphere has been shown to be more accurate at longer lead times compared to tropospheric forecasts. However, there is little to no correlation between stratospheric vortex disruption and cold air in the US. Most of the correlation lies in Siberia. Just something to monitor, no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was just cancelling winter last week. This is what happens when allow one indicator to inform your entire "outlook". The more prudent course of action would be to consider the SAI while formulating thoughts regarding the early season behavior of the polar fields. Judah is picking up on what I'm talking about, but this is in no way related to SAI and he never mentioned it was either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: Judah is picking up on what I'm talking about, but this is in no way related to SAI and he never mentioned it was either. No, obviously not because its too early for that to have manifested itself. However his winter outlooks are based entirely on the SAI, like I said. 3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Vertical wave activity flux is predicted to have a large uptick in the next week or two, with models beginning to show the possibility for a strong Scandinavian block, reinforced by consistent wave breaking in the North Atlantic. Obviously this is predicted, but model skill in terms of the stratosphere has been shown to be more accurate at longer lead times compared to tropospheric forecasts. However, there is little to no correlation between stratospheric vortex disruption and cold air in the US. Most of the correlation lies in Siberia. Just something to monitor, no guarantees. Grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, obviously not because its too early for that to have manifested itself. However his winter outlooks are based entirely on the SAI, like I said. Grain of salt. Yes, you are correct about Judah's outlooks. Just be on the lookout. I'm sure we can all be happy about the chances of a weakened vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Yes, you are correct about Judah's outlooks. Just be on the lookout. I'm sure we can all be happy about the chances of a weakened vortex. Yea, I'm not saying that the modeled changes in the stratosphere won't happen....but just advise caution until we see the whites of its eyes. I don't see an impetus for it, so there is reason to be skeptical unless there is strong climo support....which there isn't at this juncture of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not saying that the modeled changes in the stratosphere won't happen....but just advise caution until we see the whites of its eyes. I don't see an impetus for it, so there is reason to be skeptical unless there is strong climo support....which there isn't at this juncture of the season. I guess you are disregarding what I provided. What leads you to believe there is no impetus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I guess you are disregarding what I provided. What leads you to believe there is no impetus? I'm not disregarding anything. I don't take modeled stratospheric changes as gospel because they are often rushed and/or greatly exaggerated. Its akin to seeing a days 10 HECS modeled without teleconnector convergence. Why trust it? Same crap last January when so many folks were smoking the blocking pipe, which had no basis. Poof it went...then I heard the same crowd criticize me for not budging on the epic March idea. #damagedone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not disregarding anything. I don't take modeled stratospheric changes as gospel because they are often rushed and/or greatly exaggerated. Its akin to seeing a days 10 HECS modeled without teleconnector convergence. Why trust it? There are multiple reputable Mets ion twitter talking about the possibility of it being legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: There are multiple reputable Mets ion twitter talking about the possibility of it being legit. Good for them. I'd like to see more definitive signs of it. Again, not betting against it....but not yet buying it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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