Great Snow 1717 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Larry Cosgrove isn't "sounding" all that optimistic about winter arriving any time soon in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Larry Cosgrove isn't "sounding" all that optimistic about winter arriving any time soon in the east. Our weather centre is concerned of an 80s type of winter, at least to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Larry Cosgrove isn't "sounding" all that optimistic about winter arriving any time soon in the east. Deal with it! Cosgrove out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Larry Cosgrove isn't "sounding" all that optimistic about winter arriving any time soon in the east. Color me surprised on Oct 28th that winter wont arrive for 5 to 7 weeks. Then again it already arrived for many on this forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Deal with it! Cosgrove out! There is nothing to deal with on my end. I do not worry about the weather because I have no control over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Color me surprised on Oct 28th that winter wont arrive for 5 to 7 weeks. Then again it already arrived for many on this forum And to make it clear I am not expecting winter to begin on Oct 28th. My post was summing up in a brief manner what Cosgrove wrote in his latest newsletter. Nothing more,nothing less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Our weather centre is concerned of an 80s type of winter, at least to start. I can already tell that some people are nervous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 36 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I can already tell that some people are nervous lol I'm not. Don't expect much in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 No one should be surprised of a backloaded winter during an El Nino winter. That's typical how it works on average. DEC is usually above normal. With that said, it doesn't mean a warmer than average DEC can't have a cool down & snowstorm. So....Larry Cosgroves ideas are an expected average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not. Don't expect much in December. Ray, what are your thoughts, if you are able to talk about this prior to your seasonal outlook , as some here are stating the Modaki El Nino is a no go, but instead we will have a hybrid El Nino . You agree and does it really matter? And. can not things still change in the weeks ahead. Also, there is the debate as well about the high frequency forcing still being West based in the winter regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Totally unconvinced Dec is a warm month, quite the opposite really. Way too many Nino references for a correlation that is weak at best with regards to the NE, temps and Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Totally unconvinced Dec is a warm month, quite the opposite really. Way too much Nino references for a correlation that is weak at best with regards to the NE, temps and Dec. Agreed. Weak-mod El Niño’s during a solar minimum depicts a trough in the east during December. Not expecting much help from the NAO domain in December but as proven before, it’s not entirely needed to provide the northeast with cold and snowy conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 I see most of the cold on the other side of the world as we head into Nov, with no -epo/+pna in in sight....winter will have to wait east of the river, the Mississippi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 During the 80s, Niño years produced ok snow fwiw. The best sign is how active it is. I will feel a lot more optimistic if that high activity continues through November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: And to make it clear I am not expecting winter to begin on Oct 28th. My post was summing up in a brief manner what Cosgrove wrote in his latest newsletter. Nothing more,nothing less. Larry thinks winter will be pretty intense after New Years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: During the 80s, Niño years produced ok snow fwiw. The best sign is how active it is. I will feel a lot more optimistic if that high activity continues through November. The activity reminds me of 77-78, I believe it was a moderate Nino year. I was doing my freshman year in South Bend, where we had many fall rainstorms, but no notable cold. When I came back to CT for Xmas, South Bend had tallied 54", with zippo in CT. That changed in CT after Xmas break...although both locations had epic events that year. I would not be surprised to see the Midwest get some good snows out of Nov and Dec cutters, while we wait until after the holidays. Incidentally, South Bend had a 17" laker over Thanksgiving in 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Larry thinks winter will be pretty intense after New Years. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally unconvinced Dec is a warm month, quite the opposite really. Way too many Nino references for a correlation that is weak at best with regards to the NE, temps and Dec. Its based on more than nino climo. I go alot more in depth than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 15 hours ago, Powderboy413 said: Agreed. Weak-mod El Niño’s during a solar minimum depicts a trough in the east during December. Not expecting much help from the NAO domain in December but as proven before, it’s not entirely needed to provide the northeast with cold and snowy conditions. 1st, it's not a weak modoki. It's more of a hybrid. 2nd show me the analogs that have a cold east in DEC. You have 2002...and it can happen but on average any blend of Nino's will not have a mean trough in east. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen but research shows on average not. EDIT: Good grief, I posted that on the fly last night & just read it this morning. Forgive me for how rude it sounds. Didn't mean for it to sound exactly that way. And I will say there are some signs that we could see some DEC cold this year. I was just trying to question the mean trough in east for DEC but could have been a little more tact in how I worded all of that. Again, forgive my lack of tact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its based on more than nino climo. I go alot more in depth than that. No doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its based on more than nino climo. I go alot more in depth than that. I can't wait. Always a great read, and dude, you have been rolling 7s for a number of years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Cold Niño December off top of my head....2009, 2002, 1977, 1976, 1972, 1969, 1968, 1963. Warm....2015, 2014, 2006, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1987, 1982, 1979, 1965, 1957 id prob put years like 2004 and 1997 closer to normal. The warm Decembers tend to be higher magnitude warmth than cold in Ninos. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Cold Niño December off top of my head....2009, 2002, 1977, 1976, 1972, 1969, 1968, 1963. Warm....2015, 2014, 2006, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1987, 1982, 1979, 1965, 1957 id prob put years like 2004 and 1997 closer to normal. The warm Decembers tend to be higher magnitude warmth than cold in Ninos. 2009 - mean trough over plains, colder west & south 1972 - mean trough over SW, ridge east But overall definitely colder with those years. Timing has a lot to do with all of this also. And with this Nino being a late bloomer that may have impacts in a more non-traditional way. I noticed that the RRWT which is a model based on rosby waves & trends etc.....has trended colder for DEC recently. So, the timing could yield a colder or at least some cold this DEC. I certainly do not think we'll see a blowtorch DEC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 10 hours ago, stadiumwave said: 1st, it's not a weak modoki. It's more of a hybrid. 2nd show me the analogs that have a cold east in DEC. You have 2002...and it can happen but on average any blend of Nino's will not have a mean trough in east. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen but research shows on average not. EDIT: Good grief, I posted that on the fly last night & just read it this morning. Forgive me for how rude it sounds. Didn't mean for it to sound exactly that way. And I will say there are some signs that we could see some DEC cold this year. I was just trying to question the mean trough in east for DEC but could have been a little more tact in how I worded all of that. Again, forgive my lack of tact. Dec 53 , 63, 76, 86 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Dec 53 , 63, 76, 86 63 & 76 yes. 53 & 76 no...for east. But ORH_wxman had some good years for cold DEC posted above. Again, it's really about timing. I have a hunch we see some cold in spells in DEC. All my comments were based strictly on my analog years. Analog blend sdo not always pan out. A good outlook will use analog blends as a tool but pity anyone that ignores trends & makes a winter outlook based "solely"on analogs. That's why its smart to wait until Thanksgiving. I certainly hope for some wintry periods in DEC! It just seems fitting with the holidays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Glad to see we’re talking about winter again, even if the discussion is oddly contentious lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: No doubt We'll see how it goes. I'm not saying that its necessarily going to be an awful month....but I think it will def. be the worst of the D-F period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 4 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I can't wait. Always a great read, and dude, you have been rolling 7s for a number of years now. Thanks. Like anyone else, my work has had it strengths and weaknesses. Far from perfect, but I try to capture the general tenor of each season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We'll see how it goes. I'm not saying that its necessarily going to be an awful month....but I think it will def. be the worst of the D-F period. Because J-F are going to be just that good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, JBinStoughton said: Because J-F are going to be just that good! Not sure what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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