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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh you get it good just not jacking. That belongs to a 10 square mile radius in WCT only. Far SEMA is in deep deep trouble with torrential rains as every single storm track is over the elbow. 

Works for me up here

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18 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

you really think that will happen?

The Cape will actually be eroded away in the next 5-8 thousand years regardless of what happens with GW. If GW is bad, then it could be accelerated by a thousand years.

 

But don't worry, the next ice age will probably help reform it not too long after.

  • Haha 1

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Cape will actually be eroded away in the next 5-8 thousand years regardless of what happens with GW. If GW is bad, then it could be accelerated by a thousand years.

 

But don't worry, the next ice age will probably help reform it not too long after.

I'm not worried it happens in my lifetime Will

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm not worried it happens in my lifetime Will

note that he said “thousands” of years. unless you are Highlander, I don’t think you will live that long 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Sorry guys, I did it. Bought the snow blower.

It's rains to Maine this year!

If winter is already ruined then I might as well by a new snowmobile. :sled:

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

If winter is already ruined then I might as well by a new snowmobile. :sled:

What happens if I buy new golf clubs this fall, does that mean spring and summer are ruined next year?

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What happens if I buy new golf clubs this fall, does that mean spring and summer are ruined next year?

Spring always sucks anyways. It’s hard to ruin summer. I can golf in almost anything. 

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4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

CanSips August update 500mb is golden for winter for eastern 1/2. Too bad its CanSips :)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018080100&fh=4

While I appreciate your enthusiasm ... and would never attempt to suppress positive fervor... this doesn't look much different than then base-line, PNAP climo

 

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9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

While I appreciate your enthusiasm ... and would never attempt to suppress positive fervor... this doesn't look much different than then base-line, PNAP climo

 

Well to be fair...by definition, the anomalies will take care of any climo. Seeing the lower height anomalies in the southeast is a nice thing. As you know, it will help decrease the gradient issues we've had at times...obviously hypothetically here if that thing verified. That model doesn't exactly give us any reason to believe it. 

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On 8/4/2018 at 11:50 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

While I appreciate your enthusiasm ... and would never attempt to suppress positive fervor... this doesn't look much different than then base-line, PNAP climo

 

I ignore 2m temp anomalies on LR models. All I'm interested in is 500mb mean pattern.

 

However....like I said: it's Cansips & I'm not fond of the model

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I definitely like the progression of Nino right now. The weakish and west-based look. Things can still obviously change, but that would be a very favorable combo.

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Last year we got the white Christmas.   Rockwellian in homage. Crosbian in delivery.   

8" of powder over night and still it snowed moderate apace come morning light.   

I want more of that action ...unrealistically by thanks giving.   

Can we get that?   

Only once in my life do I recall a winter so eager.  1995.   

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Last year we got the white Christmas.   Rockwellian in homage. Crosbian in delivery.   

8" of powder over night and still it snowed moderate apace come morning light.   

I want more of that action ...unrealistically by thanks giving.   

Can we get that?   

Only once in my life do I recall a winter so eager.  1995.   

2002 was kind of close...we got the 6-10" storm on Thanksgiving eve morning, then another 1-2" event two days later....then another 4-12" (heaviest south) on 12/5/02....though it did thaw a bit between the 12/5/02 storm and the Xmas storm (the interior mostly kept their snow OTG though aided by a 4-8" paste job for the 495 belt and outside on 12/11/02).

Kind of tough to do in a Nino though....Ninos tend to want to warm us in December. Though that 2002 year proves exception to the rule. We had a few good Nino Decembers too back in the '70s. 2009 came close too, but kind of teased us mostly...we did get the White Xmas (mostly...CT River valley in MA north of CEF might object) but we didn't get the cold/snow in November at all...just the opposite.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Last year we got the white Christmas.   Rockwellian in homage. Crosbian in delivery.   

8" of powder over night and still it snowed moderate apace come morning light.   

I want more of that action ...unrealistically by thanks giving.   

Can we get that?   

Only once in my life do I recall a winter so eager.  1995.   

Last year was my first significant Christmas Day snowfall since 1978, in Fort Kent.  Would love seeing it again.  The only significant Thanksgiving Day snowfall I can recall was 3.7" in 2005.  That was 7-8 hours of steady windless moderate snow with all the grandkids here to watch the flakes drifting down.  (The storm also produced 2 cold-air tornados, EF-0 and EF-1, on Maine's midcoast.)  Of course, the rest of 05-06 was awful, trailing only 15-16 for snowfall and had the least SDDs by a fair amount.  It's the only winter that failed to have even one 6" snowfall since we moved to Maine in Jan. 1973.   This past winter was a lot better, of course.

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I definitely like the progression of Nino right now. The weakish and west-based look. Things can still obviously change, but that would be a very favorable combo.

Kind of a weenie question but what is meant by an weak El Nino modoki event?  From what I have gathered it means cooler water in the Nino 1 and 2 regions, while the warmer water is further west toward the dateline and this causes convection to fire.  I could be totally off on that but I guess what I'm asking is what makes this setup prime for SNE or has in the past thanks!

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