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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


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49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That one was above avg 96.20", 86-87 was 97.20", 94-95 was 49.90", 02-03 was 56.60", 14-15 was 118.20" so its kind of can go either way, I'm not sure what type of Nino's those were though.

You only had 56" in 2002-03?  I didn't know it was that much of a dud over there.  BTV had 85". 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

70"

Interesting.  I would've guessed at least a foot higher.  Just figured BTV is a snowfall pit locally for NNE and you seem to do well there that they'd be about the same.  So your average is about the mid-point between say ALB climo and BTV climo if compared to interior sites.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting.  I would've guessed at least a foot higher.  Just figured BTV is a snowfall pit locally for NNE and you seem to do well there that they'd be about the same.  So your average is about the mid-point between say ALB climo and BTV climo if compared to interior sites.

What is BTV's annual totals? 85",  Last 10 yrs or so we would be more inline with BTV's though, Other then 09-10, We have been well above avg.

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On 10/23/2018 at 2:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was only really kind of a dud in far NNE...esp up into Maine...though it was frigid there. But elsewhere it was a pretty monster winter. ORH had their 4th snowiest winter on record that season and only 1993-1994 was a colder winter there in the past 3+ decades (for BOS '02-'03 was actually colder than '93-'94 believe it or not and 5th coldest since Logan airport became the site ). 

It def gets the reputation as a Mid-Atlantic centric winter but the monster snows were actually spread out much further than just that region. 

 

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 The take away is BOS and most of SNE exceeded LEW which is rare and hence the ratter or near ratter designation.

Of course, Will had a better memory of it then i did, I had to look it up but when i saw what the totals were, Now i knew why i didn't remember it...............:lol:

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What is BTV's annual totals? 85",  Last 10 yrs or so we would be more inline with BTV's though, Other then 09-10, We have been well above avg.

Yeah it's something like that.  84" maybe?  

I think they've been averaging more than that in the aggregate since 2000 though but don't quote me on that.  

And yeah maybe that's why I assumed you averaged more, seems most years recently you are 80-110" haha.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's something like that.  84" maybe?  

I think they've been averaging more than that in the aggregate since 2000 though but don't quote me on that.  

And yeah maybe that's why I assumed you averaged more, seems most years recently you are 80-110" haha.

This is true.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 The take away is BOS and most of SNE exceeded LEW which is rare and hence the ratter or near ratter designation.

True... ALB literally doubled LEW's totals that winter, which I can't imagine happens very often, if it ever has in the past.  

ALB finished with 109" if I remember correctly (I lived there that winter).  

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jeff, I wouldn't worry too much...I won't read John's until I do my own this week, but I am guessing the bad eggs for your hood were moderate events. Pending Sept-Oct MEI, I don't think we will have that type of STJ this season.

That would be my take Ray, Probably Mod-Strong Ninos the bad years, But not sure.

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49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would be my take Ray, Probably Mod-Strong Ninos the bad years, But not sure.

It's so hard to worry about any of this pre-season outlook stuff with regards to an upcoming winter.  All it takes is for a mythical variable X to show up and the winter goes much differently than the outlooks expect.  Some whale fart in the arctic can be a game changer, lol.  If anything for New England you have to continue to be optimistic given what's transpired over the past two decades as a whole... persistence forecast until proven wrong?

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I think they've been averaging more than that in the aggregate since 2000 though but don't quote me on that.

Just to follow up on BTV's snowfall, like most other sites in New England it has seen quite the uptick in snowfall in the past two decades.

Think of it this way, between 1892 and 1999 they only exceeded 100" of seasonal snowfall in 6 winters.  So for 107 years, there were 6 winters with 100+ inches of snowfall.  Between 2000-2018 though, they've exceeded 100" on 4 occasions. 

So for the first 107 years of snowfall records, they exceeded 100" on average once every 17.8 years.  In the past 18 years though, the rate of exceeding 100" in a season is once every 4.5 years.

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On October 28, 2018 at 2:51 PM, frd said:

Ray, what are your thoughts,  if you are able to talk  about this prior to your seasonal outlook , as some here are stating the Modaki El Nino is a no go,  but instead we will have a hybrid El Nino . 

You agree and does it really matter? And. can not things still change in the weeks ahead. Also, there is the debate as well about the high frequency forcing still being West based in the winter regardless.  

I think the "hybrid" talk is kind of a cop out to provide an avenue towards a desired outcome. I call BS on that crap. What "hybrid" essentially means is that this won't be one of the most extreme modoki values in history, but that does not make it an east-based event. I made this same mistake back in 2015...pulled the "hybrid" card because it wasn't as extremely east based as 1997 and 1982...but at the end of the day, it was still an east-based super el nino. I should have gone warmer. I was right to guarantee the mid atlantic blizzard because of that, but emphasized it too much.

I understand taking the severity of the value into consideration, but discounting analogs like 2009 because of that is ridiculous. I think that analog has another more important issue, but not that.

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On October 29, 2018 at 8:50 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Cold Niño December off top of my head....2009, 2002, 1977, 1976, 1972, 1969, 1968, 1963. 

Warm....2015, 2014, 2006, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1987, 1982, 1979, 1965, 1957

id prob put years like 2004 and 1997 closer to normal.

 

The warm Decembers tend to be higher magnitude warmth than cold in Ninos. 

December 1968 may have been cold, but it wasn't snowy around here.

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BTV long term mean is 72.5" but I don't know how useful that is because there was a fundamental difference in the snowfall averages prior to 1950s/1960s. They've obviously been high since 2000 as well as PF already noted but there is another clear step in the middle 20th century. 

The totals were definitely putrid before the current site in the first 4 decades of the 20th century. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 1968 may have been cold, but it wasn't snowy around here.

We prob got unlucky that month. It was a really good pattern. Classic -PNA/-NAO pattern. Didn't look anything like El Niño though...could've fooled anyone into thinking it was a classic December La Niña, lol. 

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On October 17, 2018 at 10:03 PM, WxBlue said:

I think that was me. 

paint.NET is a good, simple, and free program. Less of a learning curve than GIMP. Got the job done when I created graphics back in my blogging days.

Download: https://www.getpaint.net/download.html

Is paint.NET compatible with a MAC?

Anyone?

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