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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall
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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

DT is going with a very snowy and cold winter for the east coast. He has February being very cold and snowy with the December , January and March being near normal.

 

He has the east coast from the Mid Atalntic to New England being 200 percent above normal with snowfall this winter. First time ever he has done that.

 

 

https://youtu.be/BsSvbF1IcXs

Seems like we’d have to get about two snowstorms a week in Feb to meet his 200% of normal snow based on his AN’s and BN’s for D-M

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Seems like a statement could be applied to all winters haha.


Could be, But some look better then others, This one, I’m not as confident as years past, Not often you get a top to bottom along the EC with an above avg winter, I would probably have a different feeling if I was a little further south this year, But still to early to write anything off.
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

 


Could be, But some look better then others, This one, I’m not as confident as years past, Not often you get a top to bottom along the EC with an above avg winter, I would probably have a different feeling if I was a little further south this year, But still to early to write anything off.

 

I think you should root for el nino to stay weak...if it does, you could make out with a late bloomer Miller B year.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you should root for el nino to stay weak...if it does, you could make out with a late bloomer Miller B year.

I can root but it won't matter....lol, Mod-Strong would not be very good, But we will take all the Miller B's we can get, We shall see how it goes with ENSO this month, I'm skeptical though.

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7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What happened to all your optimism from a month ago(the drum beats are getting louder etc etc)...your posts are sounding more and more like somebody else who lives a lil northeast of you....you’re better than this.

I started the big winter bus in July. It runs great, ready for the roads. Most pros are saying, though, that it wont be needed until after the new year, mid Jan. If that’s the case, gotta take full of advantage of every event. 

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56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I can root but it won't matter....lol, Mod-Strong would not be very good, But we will take all the Miller B's we can get, We shall see how it goes with ENSO this month, I'm skeptical though.

I really want to see the Sept/Oct MEI value....because Aug/Sept was very low...like .5. Even if ONI goes moderate....a weak MEI means we could have it behave like a weak event. See your favorite season for a good example of that. I think the stronger STJ may also hold off until late season, whereas it has taken so long for el nino to get going.

I wouldn't feel too badly yet.

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6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Statistics going back to 1948 show strong correlation differences. I once researched it. 

Show me the data.

MEI is specificly designed to measure the ocean and air inteface that is the very essense of ENSO.

1968-69 was a moderate el nino with a weak MEI....it was all late bloomer, miller B east season.

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15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where do we find more than the past 10 years?  Its Canadian snow cover that been impressive this year, not Eurasia. 

Not sure exactly how his calculation is done; I'm sure it's probably in his paper. But here is a link to Eurasia snow cover for Oct from 1967-2017. 2018 is not updated yet.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/eurasia/10

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