J Paul Gordon Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 NOAA Climo and now the Pig? Winter Cancel Alert!!!! When I was a kid I showed the teacher the same piece of homework every day in Russian class. In April she noticed the date was November something. It caused difficulties with my higher authorities at home. Likewise, one can ALWAYS predict that the Northeast will be above normal on the NOAA Climo maps. Same map, different year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Look out AK vortex in the LR. Not really unless you’re trolling lurker who’s starting to play anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said: NOAA Climo and now the Pig? Winter Cancel Alert!!!! When I was a kid I showed the teacher the same piece of homework every day in Russian class. In April she noticed the date was November something. It caused difficulties with my higher authorities at home. Likewise, one can ALWAYS predict that the Northeast will be above normal on the NOAA Climo maps. Same map, different year. NOAA has become almost worthless to look at for any long term ideas...Just like you pointed out, it's the same every year all the time...I don't even bother looking at them anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: One eyed piglet? Fear the tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Its the equal chances that will get you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I haven’t paid attention to a noaa winter outlook ever since jean jackets went out of style. They went out of style? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yes you dont want an exotically negative NAO in an el nino anyway otherwise you get a lot of suppression.... a very negative NAO is more useful in a la nina a la 1995-96 or 2010-11. A weakly negative NAO is perfect for an el nino. February 1969 and 1978 didn't get the memo. Truth be told, slightly negative with high variance is probably ideal at this latitude, but I would rather exotically negative than positive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: February 1969 and 1978 didn't get the memo. Truth be told, slightly negative with high variance is probably ideal at this latitude, but I would rather exotically negative than positive. What’s your boy Tolleris think about the snow season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What’s your boy Tolleris think about the snow season? Something about if his mother had ballz he'd be his father. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Something about if his mother had ballz he'd be his father. If he wasn't banging her, Probably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What’s your boy Tolleris think about the snow season? He has been gungo ho...at least as of a week or so ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: February 1969 and 1978 didn't get the memo. Truth be told, slightly negative with high variance is probably ideal at this latitude, but I would rather exotically negative than positive. spoken like a true prodigy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Generally less of an issue an el nino seasons, no? Not being sarcastic...obviously it can still be an issue, but just in general... Yeah I am definitely less scared of the Tip Gradient Compression issue in El Nino because El Nino strongly favors lower than average heights over the southeast US....the opposite of Nina when we get a SE ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Generally less of an issue an el nino seasons, no? Not being sarcastic...obviously it can still be an issue, but just in general... Ah... I could see that - ya.. To be responsible to the scientific process, I - personally - have never scienced that particular correlation. Come to think of it, that might be an interesting review of warm vs cool NINO's, against the background mode of the (EPO)AO(NAO)... Particularly the latter... Obviously, there is a bit of a correlation et al, but one might think it more coherent in the EPO. Anyway, but the +PNAP that's more favored in warm ENSOs would imply lower heights in the SE - as an intuitive guess ... a deep JB cold anomaly would result less squeezing of the overall flow. For storm enthusiasts, that might mean less storm frequency in lieu of greater storm strength and slow movement - in the means... There may be reason (right there) why west based, -NAO winters appear to be more nickle-dimers ... It's because they cause (or "can" cause rather) the flow to speed up from Montana to the Va Capes so much that system type favors littler critters (so to speak). Then it's west-based deep NAO or west based weak NAO... oy - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: February 1969 and 1978 didn't get the memo. Truth be told, slightly negative with high variance is probably ideal at this latitude, but I would rather exotically negative than positive. True..... funny thing is February 1969 down here (and the entire winter) was a one snowstorm winter even with the exotically negative NAO. 1977-78 might have had a different character because it was the second of back to back weak el ninos..... if you look at the winter before, 1976-77, which was also a very negative NAO, it ended up being mostly cold and dry. Yes we definitely dont want a predominantly positive NAO, unless the Pacific overwhelms the pattern like it did in years like 1993-94 and 2002-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Red Sox analogs 2004-05, 2007-08, 2013-14 lol. Take out 2007-08 and you're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah... I could see that - ya.. To be responsible to the scientific process, I - personally - have never scienced that particular correlation. Come to think of it, that might be an interesting review of warm vs cool NINO's, against the background mode of the (EPO)AO(NAO)... Particularly the latter... Obviously, there is a bit of a correlation et al, but one might think it more coherent in the EPO. Anyway, but the +PNAP that's more favored in warm ENSOs would imply lower heights in the SE - as an intuitive guess ... a deep JB cold anomaly would result less squeezing of the overall flow. For storm enthusiasts, that might mean less storm frequency in lieu of greater storm strength and slow movement - in the means... There may be reason (right there) why west based, -NAO winters appear to be more nickle-dimers ... It's because they cause (or "can" cause rather) the flow to speed up from Montana to the Va Capes so much that system type favors littler critters (so to speak). Then it's west-based deep NAO or west based weak NAO... oy - Some those seasons end up as Miller B-East, late bloomer types. 1976-77 and 1968-69 were of that ilk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, LibertyBell said: Red Sox analogs 2004-05, 2007-08, 2013-14 lol. Take out 2007-08 and you're golden. At my latitude, I'd take 07-08 over 13-14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: True..... funny thing is February 1969 down here (and the entire winter) was a one snowstorm winter even with the exotically negative NAO. 1977-78 might have had a different character because it was the second of back to back weak el ninos..... if you look at the winter before, 1976-77, which was also a very negative NAO, it ended up being mostly cold and dry. Yes we definitely dont want a predominantly positive NAO, unless the Pacific overwhelms the pattern like it did in years like 1993-94 and 2002-03. See my post below....it was anything but dry in e NE. I had nearly 100". Late bloomers. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some those seasons end up as Miller B-East, late bloomer types. 1976-77 and 1968-69 were of that ilk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some those seasons end up as Miller B-East, late bloomer types. 1976-77 and 1968-69 were of that ilk. That 100 hour snowstorm you guys had in February 1969 is my all time dream storm lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: See my post below....it was anything but dry in e NE. I had nearly 100". Late bloomers. Oops we were posting at the same time lol. I remember we discussed this in the past and you mentioned the 100 hour snowstorm in February 1969.....in today's high precipitation climate that we have now that would set all kind of snowfall records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, LibertyBell said: Oops we were posting at the same time lol. I remember we discussed this in the past and you mentioned the 100 hour snowstorm in February 1969.....in today's high precipitation climate that we have now that would set all kind of snowfall records. He was talking about 76-77 I think in that post...that year had some late bloomers that hit E NE that missed further west and southwest. Dec 29, 1976 was one of the biggest ones...gave parts of E MA 16-20". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He was talking about 76-77 I think in that post...that year had some late bloomers that hit E NE that missed further west and southwest. Dec 29, 1976 was one of the biggest ones...gave parts of E MA 16-20". ORH had like 5" of pixie dust...my dream event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: He was talking about 76-77 I think in that post...that year had some late bloomers that hit E NE that missed further west and southwest. Dec 29, 1976 was one of the biggest ones...gave parts of E MA 16-20". Thanks Will, was that the winter with the 100 hour snowstorm? I've been wondering if the reason the coast has seen a golden era in snowstorms has to do with the fact that in our new climate not only do we have higher precipitation storms but that the storm track is now closer to the coast than it was, say in the 60s. For example those late bloomers from back then now track closer to the coast, so storms that would ordinarily either clip E MA or go out to sea are now coming closer to the coast with a stronger ridge. Some supporting evidence for this is that the models often play catch up and storms have tended to come closer to the coast than they were originally programmed to. I see some well inland folks complaining that we are stealing their snow, but I wonder if these storms that hit us now would have been out to sea or only clipping E MA before our current period of warming began and would also have carried less precipitation than they do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, LibertyBell said: Thanks Will, was that the winter with the 100 hour snowstorm? I've been wondering if the reason the coast has seen a golden era in snowstorms has to do with the fact that in our new climate not only do we have higher precipitation storms but that the storm track is now closer to the coast than it was, say in the 60s. For example those late bloomers from back then now track closer to the coast, so storms that would ordinarily either clip E MA or go out to sea are now coming closer to the coast with a stronger ridge. Some supporting evidence for this is that the models often play catch up and storms have tended to come closer to the coast than they were originally programmed to. I see some well inland folks complaining that we are stealing their snow, but I wonder if these storms that hit us now would have been out to sea or only clipping E MA before our current period of warming began and would also have carried less precipitation than they do now. Feb 1969 had that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ORH had like 5" of pixie dust...my dream event. Haha with this ENSO state you could see a few events like that. I dont know why I thought that 100 hour storm was in February 1969....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Feb 1969 had that. Okay so I did remember correctly....thats the one you told me about. That would be my dream snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, LibertyBell said: Haha with this ENSO state you could see a few events like that. I dont know why I thought that 100 hour storm was in February 1969....... ...because it was... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ...because it was... Yep Will brought up 1976-77 so I thought maybe I got the year wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oops we were posting at the same time lol. I remember we discussed this in the past and you mentioned the 100 hour snowstorm in February 1969.....in today's high precipitation climate that we have now that would set all kind of snowfall records. That event dumped 43" at the Farmington co-op, boosting the pack to 84", tallest I've found for Maine. 41 years later, to the day, we missed a repeat by 5° or so, getting 9-10" of incredibly sloppy mashed potatoes out of 4" qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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