40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 2 hours ago, stadiumwave said: This is key. Not sure why so many think if you use an analog it means you think "carbon copy". I choose several analogs. One may chosen because of QBO, another because of ENSO, another PDO, another solar. That's how I compile an analog blend. That is what I was trying to get at....using 1978 doesn't mean necessarily that we will have a record breaking blizzard, nor a neg NAO in the seasonal mean, however it implies that at least a like period is an enhanced likelihood. I would be very careful about going wall-wall pos NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 I don't drink, but a nice benefit to moving to the NH border, nonetheless. hahaYup there are other Benny’s besides the booze, No sales tax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup there are other Benny’s besides the booze, Winter! Fixed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 The warm blob in the GOA & Bering Sea is really getting steamy. Can't really find any years where that whole region was a warm blob. Theres the GOA warm blob DJF in 2013...but ot does not compare: Of course theres 2014 where the entire east PAC was on fire: Something to keep an eye on. When there are large positive anomalies in that part of PAC during winter it's been known to bode well in east U.S. And no...I'm not saying the warmer than average anomalies drive the pattern but rather are indicative of it. The strong NW Canadian ridging UKMET, Euro, & JAMSTEC advertise for winter probably will come to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 8 hours ago, stadiumwave said: The warm blob in the GOA & Bering Sea is really getting steamy. Can't really find any years where that whole region was a warm blob. Theres the GOA warm blob DJF in 2013...but ot does not compare: Of course theres 2014 where the entire east PAC was on fire: Something to keep an eye on. When there are large positive anomalies in that part of PAC during winter it's been known to bode well in east U.S. And no...I'm not saying the warmer than average anomalies drive the pattern but rather are indicative of it. The strong NW Canadian ridging UKMET, Euro, & JAMSTEC advertise for winter probably will come to fruition. Ssts do not drive the pattern, but they can help to re enforce a stable atmospheric configuration....agreed. It's another puzzle piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Duh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 New jma is out. Looks really nice overall. Probably not quite as cool as the ukmet and ecmwf given the lack of ridging in ak and the pna region seen on the European guidance. December has the Aleutian low into the Bering which isn't as ideal as some other guidance. Looks better in Jan though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 A lot of blocking in AO & NAO region during JAN/FEB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Basically all guidance is good. Judah worried about the lackluster beginning of snow advance in western Siberia per his Twitter. I’m not sure the SAI is a reasonably reliable index given the sample size and recent results. Also, with the rest of October looming it could change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Basically all guidance is good. Judah worried about the lackluster beginning of snow advance in western Siberia per his Twitter. I’m not sure the SAI is a reasonably reliable index given the sample size and recent results. Also, with the rest of October looming it could change. North American snow, mainly in Canada, is above normal as well. Glad that Judah sticks to his guns, but you have to think with the past few winters there may be more going on than just how much/how fast snow builds up in Siberia in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Basically all guidance is good. Judah worried about the lackluster beginning of snow advance in western Siberia per his Twitter. I’m not sure the SAI is a reasonably reliable index given the sample size and recent results. Also, with the rest of October looming it could change. We could have the same pattern for years (raging +nao) and he’ll still claim victory. Fraud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We could have the same pattern for years (raging +nao) and he’ll still claim victory. Fraud. ??? I thought he was the guy Harvey turns to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Duh... That may be the only post you have ever made that was read in its entirety by anyone. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 36 minutes ago, MarkO said: ??? I thought he was the guy Harvey turns to? He's a big name due to his research, but he is not a good forecaster, nor is he entirely forthcoming regarding verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 The guy is bright and I don’t take that back. But, when you claim to be right for the wrong reason like in 2014 and get away with it....I’m sorry...you lost me there as a scientist. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 1 hour ago, MarkO said: ??? I thought he was the guy Harvey turns to? I think Harvey genuinely likes him but Harvey also has little use for LR forecasting imo. He doesn't even like making 7 day forecasts let alone 3-5 months. Harvey looks more than happy to hand that job to Judah imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 4 hours ago, 8611Blizz said: I think Harvey genuinely likes him but Harvey also has little use for LR forecasting imo. He doesn't even like making 7 day forecasts let alone 3-5 months. Harvey looks more than happy to hand that job to Judah imo. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 I feel like I need some new model discussion in here. It’s been like a whole day lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: I feel like I need some new model discussion in here. It’s been like a whole day lol. Almost two days....but who's counting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Youtube is ablaze with cold snowy east coast winter forecasts for the upcoming... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Lalalalalalal lock it up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Lalalalalalal lock it up Looks like a modest NAO, as well......but extreme pos PDO/-EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Anyone know of any free graphic tools for making maps? TIA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone know of any free graphic tools for making maps? TIA... Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Getting rid of the arrows? Microsoft Paint 3D works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Getting rid of the arrows? Microsoft Paint 3D works for me. Those arrows are just awful . No one can ever read the maps . Mass confusion. Hopefully he finds something different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone know of any free graphic tools for making maps? TIA... I use GIMP; it's got a fairly steep learning curve to understand how layers work but once you're up to speed you can make some nice looking products relatively quickly; here's an example. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Those arrows are just awful . No one can ever read the maps . Mass confusion. Hopefully he finds something different Yea, far from ideal. Someone gave me a good suggestion at the end of last year, but I didn't write it down, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place. Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring. Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well. I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Greg said: Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place. Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring. Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well. I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up. You can just look at the title of the month’s model thread, that’s all anyone needs to know. When it’s Movember, keep the mower on standby.... and when it’s Blizzember, call your plow guy immediately, don’t even look at your local forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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