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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall
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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

August September NAO does have a correlation with Jan Feb (albeit weak). That's why I posted it yesterday.

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The problem I have with data sets that extend 30 or even 50 years (though perhaps better in the latter sense..) with regard to the NAO is that the entire (EPO)A0(NAO) arc appears to favor positive to negative ...back to positive tendency along a rough 30-year periodicity or so. 

that product says 67 years so... okay. But, if we are in a predominant positive(negative) 30 year regime, I'm wondering if that sort of straight up linear correlation would be the same?  intereting

 

 

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1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said:

Picked up the new sled today. Should be a great year to break her in

AE3901E8-E2C3-4343-BA54-E6A10F8E1B4F.thumb.jpeg.4c0e830663c36485665713f55c600c40.jpeg

 

NICE Brotha!! Congratulations! 

 

Gen 4...850 or 600??? 

 

My good buddy who was out of the sport for 14 years, picked up a new 18 850 TNT back in February...he loves it!!  Things got some serious low end grunt...and can run hard up top too. 

 

I have an 18 Yamaha Sidewinder RTX...sledding is so much fun..think snow Powderboy.  

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18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

NICE Brotha!! Congratulations! 

 

Gen 4...850 or 600??? 

 

My good buddy who was out of the sport for 14 years, picked up a new 18 850 TNT back in February...he loves it!!  Things got some serious low end grunt...and can run hard up top too. 

 

I have an 18 Yamaha Sidewinder RTX...sledding is so much fun..think snow Powderboy.  

19 gen 4 850 mxz XRS

im coming off a 600 so the 850 is going to be so fun. I could feel the torque just taking it off the trailer and into the shed. I’m always thinking snow

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On 10/5/2018 at 1:43 PM, OSUmetstud said:

I think there's pretty good evidence of an overall positive NAO (it doesn't mean there can't be bouts of negative.) You can use similar rationale to throw out the blockbusters of the 60s and 70s Ninos given the difference of the atmosphere and climo. 

You can look at a season like maybe 86-87 or 94-95 to see evidence of lackluster Atlantic blocking during weak Ninos. 

I don't think any of us are experts on the subject per say...its mostly a stab in the dark. 

nao.sprd2.gif

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Man, those SST's are going to be causing some early season angst amongst the coastal plain.

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's got a full-on ratter. Those numbers would equate to 30" or less in BOS and 48" or less in ORH. 

Heh...it's an entirely subjective-guided question, but, if winter was all contained inside one mega historic bomb ...say a once in a life time deal that reached exotic depths, with perfect 'snow machine' kinematics ... where the -5 SD cyclone Fuji'ed around the U/L and pummeled repeatedly across three days...  such that Worcester got 48" and Boston got 30 ... even though (hypothetically) it didn't snow at any other time that winter season, would that be fairly construed as a ratter ?

ah... heh. I love challenging "sentiment rules"

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Why is it always like that ....? 

The name/alias of the user has to be a 'raindance' ...or warm luster, of snow hater... and they just happen to put out a winter forecast with a straight faced effort that indicates an ephemeral hell to any cryo enthusiasts.  I mean, not that it's predictable  -

j/k ...but sometimes ya wonder.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's got a full-on ratter. Those numbers would equate to 30" or less in BOS and 48" or less in ORH. 

The one year that would scream monster snow season he's forecasting to be a ratter. 

Imagine the forecast for less than stellar analogs, I'm guessing it would show blowtorch and 11/12 type snows. 

It's just as bad as AccuWeather's useless winter forecast.

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1 hour ago, SimeonNC said:

I find it hard to believe that SNE would be more in line for ice storms than the upper south.

Its climatologically tone deaf, and I'm not sure how you double up on 94, and completely neglect 1977.

Pretty sure that is wrong. ...not that it can't be a disappointing winter here, though because it can.

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11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's got a full-on ratter. Those numbers would equate to 30" or less in BOS and 48" or less in ORH. 

Using percent of normal for snowfall NEVER works out well in map form.  133% of normal or 67% of normal are both on the end of the spectrum up here.  Record high or record low snow.  Sounds like it would be pretty drastic in SNE too.

When making a snowfall forecast, just go above or below normal and don't try to quantify it.

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends on storm track, but I just meant that ice storms are pretty rare along the ne coast.

Sometimes when I read that type of stuff on a seasonal forecast, the user really means mixed precip events but writes ice storms for some reason.  Like a bunch of messy snow/sleet/zr events are different than just "ice storms."  But for some reason seasonal forecasts love to say icy or ice storms.

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