frd Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well winter of 77-78 was a very good one/one of the greats for lots of folks around the country...New England and the Mid-West. But it's just one piece of the puzzle as Ray said at this point. It has certainly has been being making some significant moves the last 60 days. 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41 -9.91 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 It's interesting as to the QBO's plausible correlation with the Arctic Oscillation. Firstly, for those that don't know... the QBO is an equatorial atmospheric index, ranging within just 20 degrees of the equator ... north and south. It's behavior is that it oscillates from west moving air, ...switching to and eastward moving air, per an ~ 28 month periodicity, give or take. And I believe the westerlies phase is dominant, perhaps closer to 30 months, where the east phase is less (but I may have that backwards..). Anyway, it's stratospheric and propagates downward in time... fading as it goes. But, the point of interest is that the Arctic Oscillation is of course an arctic domain space, which is not tropical.. heh. It extends from the geographic north pole ...south in all direction to the 60th parallel. This essentially means that that there exists a broadly spaced disconnect between them ...relative to the surface of the Earth of course... where the entire mid latitudes engage in on-going forces. Since that separation implies no direct physical relationship between the two domain spaces, any influence they may have on one another ... logic dictates must either be indirect, or, coincidental. No one asked any of this... of course... But, for me, the AO is probably as important as the ENSO, if not more (*depending upon whether the polarward indexes are in their decadal dominant oscillation) in determining the course of temperature anomalies from the NP-GL-OV-NE regions. Intuitively, .. one might think the ENSO would have a direct causal relationship with the QBO, seeing as they occupy the same radial distance from the equator.. yet, and this is in fact only weakly correlated from any of the literature of the refereed variety that I have found. Yet, the CDC cross-correlation table gives correlation-coefficient values suggesting the AO and the QBO as having more coherence. I just think that's fascinating ... like, the two domain spaces are separated by a huge 40 degrees worth of band yet they seem to be more correlated than the QBO takes place like right on top of the ENSO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 I'm going 90-91, 94-95, 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 06-07, 14-15 for my winter analogs. I don't like anything with negative Naos in the means. Even so, there's a fairly large amount of variation across the data set from winter to winter. -Nick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 I don't understand why you entirely discount anything with a negative NAO during a weak el nino near a solar minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Its akin to discounting anything with a positive NAO in the means during a strong la nina/solar max couplet. That said, I have my doubts regarding NAO, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ita akin to discounting anything with a positive NAO in the means during a strong la nina/solar max couplet. That said, I have my doubts regarding NAO, too. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/ I thought the many years form 1992 to 1995 without - AO contributions was due mostly to the incredible eruption of Mount Pinatuba. It made the strat an icebox and lingered for years. I thought this time period should be used cautiously as any analogs for future winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 minute ago, frd said: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/ I thought the many years form 1992 to 1995 without - AO contributions was due mostly to the incredible eruption of Mount Pinatuba. It made the strat an icebox and lingered for years. I thought this time period should be used cautiously as any analogs for future winters. I agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand why you entirely discount anything with a negative NAO during a weak el nino near a solar minimum. I think there's pretty good evidence of an overall positive NAO (it doesn't mean there can't be bouts of negative.) You can use similar rationale to throw out the blockbusters of the 60s and 70s Ninos given the difference of the atmosphere and climo. You can look at a season like maybe 86-87 or 94-95 to see evidence of lackluster Atlantic blocking during weak Ninos. I don't think any of us are experts on the subject per say...its mostly a stab in the dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think there's pretty good evidence of an overall positive NAO (it doesn't mean there can't be bouts of negative.) You can use similar rationale to throw out the blockbusters of the 60s and 70s Ninos given the difference of the atmosphere and climo. You can look at a season like maybe 86-87 or 94-95 to see evidence of lackluster Atlantic blocking during weak Ninos. I don't think any of us are experts on the subject per say...its mostly a stab in the dark. I stated that weak el nino correlates to negative NAO, BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF EXCEPTIONS. I don't need evidence of it. I'm also not sure what the predominate NAO state from Jun through September has to do with this winter. You toss the negative NAO years of the 60s and 70s, citing a vague reference to "different atmosphere and climo", then proceed to utilize the Pinatubo modulated 1994 weak ENSO event to support your assertion that negative NAO will not happen? Okay- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, but I wouldn't read too much into it right now...just one piece. Did you see the latest Euro seasonal , looks sweet. I think that is three months in a row and last year in it's October release it did rather well with it's seasonal forecast per Ed Valle . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 I'm not arguing in favor of negative NAO...I'm just not ready to discount it...certainly not for the reasons given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: Did you see the latest Euro seasonal , looks sweet. I think that is three months in a row and last year in it's October release it did rather well with it's seasonal forecast per Ed Valle . Looks EPO driven. How was DJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 The whole "persistence forecasting" is a lazy approach IMHO...I was told that last season when I kept calling for an epic -NAO fueled ending. It works until it doesn't- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I stated that weak el nino correlates to negative NAO, BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF EXCEPTIONS. I don't need evidence of it. I'm also not sure what they NAO from Jun through September has to do with this winter. You toss the negative NAO years of the 60s and 70s, citing a vague reference to "different atmosphere and climo", then proceed to utilize the Pinatubo modulated 1994 weak ENSO event to support your assertion that negative NAO will not happen? Okay- No I'm just starting there are valid reasons to find fault with any supposed analog year. Theres always going to be differences. You can throw out 94-95 and the neither thr 500mb height anomalies nor the surface temperature anomalies change much. I feel pretty confident on a DJFM positive NAO in the means...we've been in a 6 year impressive cycle with that as the CPC graph shows above. The main reason I didn't use the 60s and 70s is being I don't think there will be negative nao like then. I didnt go looking for an argument. I'm not any sort of long range expert. I'm just posting my thoughts, if you don't like them then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: No I'm just starting there are valid reasons to find fault with any supposed analog year. Theres always going to be differences. You can throw out 94-95 and the neither thr 500mb height anomalies nor the surface temperature anomalies change much. I feel pretty confident on a DJFM positive NAO in the means...we've been in a 6 year impressive cycle with that as the CPC graph shows above. The main reason I didn't use the 60s and 70s is being I don't think there will be negative nao like then. I didnt go looking for an argument. I'm not any sort of long range expert. I'm just posting my thoughts, if you don't like them then so be it. Tossing the 60s and 70s becuase it doesn't fit a preconceived notion is inverse forecasting. I can certainly see a positive NAO, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The whole "persistence forecasting" is a lazy approach IMHO...I was told that last season when I kept calling for an epic -NAO fueled ending. It works until it doesn't- You don't get to act like youre engaging in fruitful discussion all the while calling someone's method lazy. Plus it wasn't the only reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: You don't get to act like youre engaging in fruitful discussion all the while calling someone's method lazy. Plus it wasn't the only reasoning. Right.....it was a positive NAO summer, too. I'll try to bare more fruit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: No I'm just starting there are valid reasons to find fault with any supposed analog year. Theres always going to be differences. You can throw out 94-95 and the neither thr 500mb height anomalies nor the surface temperature anomalies change much. I feel pretty confident on a DJFM positive NAO in the means...we've been in a 6 year impressive cycle with that as the CPC graph shows above. The main reason I didn't use the 60s and 70s is being I don't think there will be negative nao like then. I didnt go looking for an argument. I'm not any sort of long range expert. I'm just posting my thoughts, if you don't like them then so be it. Do you factor in GW when deciding not to use analog years from the 60's and 70's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 That said, I find the SST product nick provided, above, interesting in that appears somewhat 'tri-polar' in the anomaly distribution. There are refereed literature sources that discuss Atlantic SST distributions, both in situ and lag-correlated, with modes of the NAO. Just fyi - One example, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-3186.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Euro Seasonal update looks like porn to a winter lover. Hybrid-Modoki, Nino & moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Euro Seasonal update looks like porn to a winter lover. Hybrid-Modoki, Nino & moderate Just think ...eventually, we'll get those pattern "looks" to verify, but the rub/devil will be that GW will have surpassed it and it won't mean snow ... more like, snow for NNE and cat paw winters here - You know, it's almost like the technologies we use to entertain... (brought into physical form off the backs of fossil fuel powered tech-society industries mind us) will ultimately ruin winters... such that the only way to guarantee winters, is not to use the technologies that allow us to engage in this entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: That said, I find the SST product nick provided, above, interesting in that appears somewhat 'tri-polar' in the anomaly distribution. There are refereed literature sources that discuss Atlantic SST distributions, both in situ and lag-correlated, with modes of the NAO. Just fyi - One example, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-3186.1 That paper seemed to suggest that it isthe Gulf Stream mainly, not so much the Greenland or tropical SST anomalies, that are the driver for NH winter patterns. Do you agree that our NAO state would be driven mainly by the GS SST anomalies (really warm and centered right along the GS this year) and that it shows a strong signal for +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 33 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Euro Seasonal update looks like porn to a winter lover. Hybrid-Modoki, Nino & moderate I'd like to see it maintain that intensity for another cycle....I think it may have overcompensated a bit, but I like a marginal weak-moderate deal....similar to intensity of la nina last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Good stuff on the QBO Tippy, educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 2 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said: That paper seemed to suggest that it isthe Gulf Stream mainly, not so much the Greenland or tropical SST anomalies, that are the driver for NH winter patterns. Do you agree that our NAO state would be driven mainly by the GS SST anomalies (really warm and centered right along the GS this year) and that it shows a strong signal for +NAO? Yeah... I was just trying to point out that the correlation efforts ...valid ones at that, are out there if one chooses to look. Personally? I don't believe the GS would 'main' in driving the NAO's dominate mode tendencies, no. However... it would partial. 1 ... the NAO shares its domain space with the AO. They overlap in the norther 1/3 to 1/2 of the NAO's total domain space (the same is true for the EPO for that matter...). If there are larger scaled forces that are impelling the AO to a negative or positive seasonal bias, those are not always going to be guiding the NAO. The NAO could be in part responding to warmer transport/from planetary waves passing over the Gulf Stream, while at the same time ... its northern quadrants, those latitudes escape that influence and are reflecting more of what is going on in the AO... So that obscures the forcing in those cases. I would not be shocked if warmer SST anomalies in key regions that supply the "Icelandic Low" ...might add to that vorticity tendency and really deepen that low in the means, which can pull the NAO down/up depending.. 2 ... Intra-weekly timed scaled events translating through the NAO can pike it one way or the other more readily, because it is smaller than say ... the PNA, which is so mammoth it takes a considerably larger pattern of forcing than single events to send it through modality. If the PNA/-EPO are driving an active N/A storm pattern, those will terminate into the NAO domain space regardless of the GS...in those circumstances, the forcing is more Pacific in origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd like to see it maintain that intensity for another cycle....I think it may have overcompensated a bit, but I like a marginal weak-moderate deal....similar to intensity of la nina last year. Stock up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 At someo point in our lives people will finally understand the difference between monthly teleconnection readings and dailies. Transient daily condions determine daily sensible weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 That feb look deff made your weenie perk, if the nurses could not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: At someo point in our lives people will finally understand the difference between monthly teleconnection readings and dailies. Transient daily condions determine daily sensible weather. This! The averages don’t always tell the whole story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: At someo point in our lives people will finally understand the difference between monthly teleconnection readings and dailies. Transient daily condions determine daily sensible weather. You have quite the transient block fetish lol Opportunities are simply more abundant with sustained readings...that's all. I get it, though...you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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