RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 02-03 with a weaker ENSO...modoki value should end up similar. Weenie starting to percolate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 How much for TAN? Asking for a friend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 02-03 with a weaker ENSO...modoki value should end up similar. Ray Ray http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/ensotool/ensotool.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 17 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How much for TAN? Asking for a friend. You'll measure 3.5", BOX 4.5" but somehow Tblizz has 7" 1SM NW of KBOX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You'll measure 3.5", BOX 4.5" but somehow Tblizz has 7" 1SM NW of KBOX. LOL. Look at our numbers in the snow table. Always pretty close, and always consistently higher than BOX. Anyway, I’ve moved. Living off of 44 on the raynham line now. So myself and Matt (butterfish) should be almost dead on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 I'll try to do fairly frequent comparisons between Methuen and Wilmington this season...should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll try to do fairly frequent comparisons between Methuen and Wilmington this season...should be fun. Will your wife drive as you jump in and out of the car with a ruler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Will your wife drive as you jump in and out of the car with a ruler? My mother still lives here....my GYM is here, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: LOL. Look at our numbers in the snow table. Always pretty close, and always consistently higher than BOX. Anyway, I’ve moved. Living off of 44 on the raynham line now. So myself and Matt (butterfish) should be almost dead on. I’m Joking. Good luck with the new place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Really starting to hone in. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/weak-modoki-el-nino-imminent.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Just say no to 06/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just say no to 06/07. February and March tried. Powderfreak endorsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 42 minutes ago, weathafella said: February and March tried. Powderfreak endorsed. Yea, I think given that precise regime again, the second half would deliver more proficiently...but not ideal, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 The subsurface data is strongly favoring modoki/west-based El Nino at this point. If you compare with the same period in 2006, you can clearly see how 2006 was going to become more classic with time with all the subsurface warmth further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 On 9/26/2018 at 9:46 AM, weathafella said: February and March tried. Powderfreak endorsed. Tale of 2 seasons. Cherrypicking start-end dates: Nov 8-Jan 13, 67 days: temp +7.00 Precip 9.62" Snow 11.0" Snow/day: 0.164 Jan 14-Apr 18, 94 days: Temp -4.91 Precip 15.17" Snow 84.3" Snow/day: 0.897 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The subsurface data is strongly favoring modoki/west-based El Nino at this point. If you compare with the same period in 2006, you can clearly see how 2006 was going to become more classic with time with all the subsurface warmth further east. Lot of good seasons within those indexed years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 On 9/25/2018 at 6:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My mother still lives here....my GYM is here, etc. More importantly is the garbage can still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The subsurface data is strongly favoring modoki/west-based El Nino at this point. If you compare with the same period in 2006, you can clearly see how 2006 was going to become more classic with time with all the subsurface warmth further east. Sounds good, but what are your thoughts on this regarding a full basin event? I came across this today. ( below ) I myslef do not buy that, but I would think the El Nino could become a hair more robust, but still be West-Based / Modaki in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Scooter will call me Cold Miser but fact is I went warm last year back loaded, this year I state again gimme 2/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2014-15 still seems to be a really strong analog....+NAO I think continues. As westerlies kick in & a very weak El Nino matures look for +PNA/-EPO pattern to emerge as we get close to winter. Just my opinion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: Sounds good, but what are your thoughts on this regarding a full basin event? I came across this today. ( below ) I myslef do not buy that, but I would think the El Nino could become a hair more robust, but still be West-Based / Modaki in nature. I dunno, I'm not expert enough to know what technically qualifies as a "full basin" event....but regardless, I do not see how this doesn't remain very west based looking at the subsurface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The subsurface data is strongly favoring modoki/west-based El Nino at this point. If you compare with the same period in 2006, you can clearly see how 2006 was going to become more classic with time with all the subsurface warmth further east. I just made that same dichotomy in my last blog post a couple of days ago. I'm about ready to put that analog to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: Sounds good, but what are your thoughts on this regarding a full basin event? I came across this today. ( below ) I myslef do not buy that, but I would think the El Nino could become a hair more robust, but still be West-Based / Modaki in nature. I'm not sure some understand what exactly is meant by "basin wide", or "full basin". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, stadiumwave said: 2014-15 still seems to be a really strong analog....+NAO I think continues. As westerlies kick in & a very weak El Nino matures look for +PNA/-EPO pattern to emerge as we get close to winter. Just my opinion ENSO maybe best match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure some understand what exactly is meant by "basin wide", or "full basin". So true. Ray, are you making progress on your solar research . I know in the other thread you were debating how important it is whether we are headed into the solar min, or whether there is a lag ( headed away from ) and it might be best for next winter in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 We are about to begin October. If this el nino is going to try to go more east or take off, which I am about ready to write off, then it will do so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: So true. Ray, are you making progress on your solar research . I know in the other thread you were debating how important it is whether we are headed into the solar min, or whether there is a lag ( headed away from ) and it might be best for next winter in that scenario. We don't know. But does a weak modoki el nino winter within one year of the solar minimum verifying mild pass the smell test? The answer is no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Yea, 06/07 should be looked at from a big picture and not an imby perspective. Some big players involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We don't know. But does a weak modoki el nino winter within one year of the solar minimum verifying mild pass the smell test? The answer is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It doesn't have to be a blockbuster, either, but odds are greater than usual for above normal snow and below normal temps. No guarantees, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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