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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to get into any big digression over it but ...were those during particular events?  

I mean I'm virtually certain they were... You almost have to have something going on to focus low level features into that sort of construct.  ... 

I guess what I'm after is whether those areas in Essex, Suffolk and interior SE Mass that were still 30 to 32 ...what kind of p-type occurred there.  I wonder if that was big aggegrate on one side, vs powder out west...  barring a 700 mb warm layer carpet bombing the region for other reasons..

Yeah they were during the 12/16/07 event (front end thump that overperformed big time) and the 12/21/08 event which also over performed. Both had surface reflections that tracked over SE MA....so it is no surprise that out ahead of that, a very strong CF developed.

I actually have a surface plot from 12/16/07 here:

 

Dec16-sfcMap-7am.gif.8027d95d63547af5cefeb06d7ad0540c.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

S+ near the Cape and PIT (Pellets In Tolland). Doesn't get much better. 

The best was when mattmfm (who lived near PVD at the time) was reporting S+ and Kevin wouldn't believe it. Finally, I remember posting the sfc map above which supported it and he was "dumbfounded". Even though BOS was on the east side of the CF, they still had almost 8 inches of snow IIRC. Just obscene lift in the DGZ which was offsetting a marginal warm layer aloft.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The best was when mattmfm (who lived near PVD at the time) was reporting S+ and Kevin wouldn't believe it. Finally, I remember posting the sfc map above which supported it and he was "dumbfounded". Even though BOS was on the east side of the CF, they still had almost 8 inches of snow IIRC. Just obscene lift in the DGZ which was offsetting a marginal warm layer aloft.

So much for the "it can't snow on east winds.." in December no less. All about that 950-850 layer. 

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1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

yeah, but there is more snow in Methuen. it's a wash. 

How much more snow do you actually think falls in Methuen as oppose to Wilmington??? Honestly I do not think it is all that much especially on the east side of Methuen. The west side of Methuen near Pelham/Dracut probably receives more snowfall than Wilmington. There is a lengthy list of issues in Methuen that would require the yearly snowfall totals for the Tug Hill area to even begin to mitigate the issues.

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Nah ... unless something truly historic and not just hyperbole takes place, it does that every year in the models - it looks really threatening and ominous for an amazing early winter with leaves still on the trees no less ... won't verify nearly that amplified can you bet -

 Maybe colder than normal October… Which could be a good sign for other reasons statistical ones that is.  The colder than normal in October is hardly "winter"

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2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Ray, did you look for the house on sale on the highest point in town? Top of mount Methuen

Sorry to lose you Ray to the north east. It was fun to see the difference between my side of Wilmington and yours now it will be a few towns away. Good luck with your new purchase hope it fulfills your families needs at this juncture.

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On 9/19/2018 at 11:08 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

As Ray even said, it's a step down from Wilmington lol And he's right.  

It’s like any town. There’s real nice spots and spots that aren’t so nice. As someone who grew up in Brockton and lived for a time in Dorchester, and now in a community that isn’t exactly the most glamorous....I’ve done just that. In all those areas, I was fortunate to live in spots that were desirable and I enjoy where I am now.  He looks like he’s got a good location there. Nothing wrong for a first timer.

Now back to winter. Looks like it’s coming early to the Plains.

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On 9/19/2018 at 10:29 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they were during the 12/16/07 event (front end thump that overperformed big time) and the 12/21/08 event which also over performed. Both had surface reflections that tracked over SE MA....so it is no surprise that out ahead of that, a very strong CF developed.

I actually have a surface plot from 12/16/07 here:

 

Dec16-sfcMap-7am.gif.8027d95d63547af5cefeb06d7ad0540c.gif

 

Oh right - I remember those now. Those were those back to back years where we put up like 30" Decembers .. Both years/Decembers had a lot of unusually total/synoptic variances between cold banked into our region, when Lakes cutting systems slammed into them.  We had multiple 'front end loader' type thumps those two consecutive Decembers...  interesting.

I think that's when the phrase was coined, 'southwest flo' event'?  

Anyway, I remember one of those events vividly, quite possibly one of the two you presented above...waking up with the original 3-6" --> pellets/ZR ending as light rain forecast in mind, only to part eyes at small uniform aggregate falling with enough density that the blue-tinted pal out of window only allowed visibility up to what ..an 1/8th mi tops!  Man, it was like.. 15 F at the time it was supposed to already be in the ZR phases ...and I'm thinking, heh...yeeeah.  I think more than merely 'sw flow' ...the front side dammed air mass was just too massive for the cutting system's mechanics to overcome...

I think what actually happens there in more synoptic terms, is that happens whenever a Miller B lower troposphere sets up while the mechanics are too far inland - the "B" result ens up weak, and we are just left with upright isontropes

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh right - I remember those now. Those were those back to back years where we put up like 30" Decembers .. Both years/Decembers had a lot of unusually total/synoptic variances between cold banked into our region, when Lakes cutting systems slammed into them.  We had multiple 'front end loader' type thumps those two consecutive Decembers...  interesting.

I think that's when the phrase was coined, 'southwest flo' event'?  

Anyway, I remember one of those events vividly, quite possibly one of the two you presented above...waking up with the original 3-6" --> pellets/ZR ending as light rain forecast in mind, only to part eyes at small uniform aggregate falling with enough density that the blue-tinted pal out of window only allowed visibility up to what ..an 1/8th mi tops!  Man, it was like.. 15 F at the time it was supposed to already be in the ZR phases ...and I'm thinking, heh...yeeeah.  I think more than merely 'sw flow' ...the front side dammed air mass was just too massive for the cutting system's mechanics to overcome...

I think what actually happens there in more synoptic terms, is that happens whenever a Miller B lower troposphere sets up while the mechanics are too far inland - the "B" result ens up weak, and we are just left with upright isontropes

Yeah John I think you are remembering the event you quoted with the sfc plot there on 12/16/07. The forecast was exactly that....3-6" before a flip to IP and then ZR. We had advisories out but no warning. Meanwhile, once the thing moved in, about 2 hours into it we knew the bust was coming....I wish eastern was still online to link back to that thread, but it was funny reading it. I was thinking "ok, were already at 5" and this sleet line is not making any progress and it's pounding at 2" per hour"...we knew we were going to be cracking 7-10" and that's exactly what happened. Of course, it was hard to actually predict that because we're we're washing out a marginal warm layer that was probably about 1-2 thousand feet thick. You know how that can go...it's like flipping a coin. If the omega was there, we could overcome it...esp if the omega was maxing out in the snow growth region. Getting the extra latent cooling from the attempted melting process in that thin warm layer. But you don't really know if it's going to happen until the event was underway. 

But it was a great system to learn from. You can see exactly what you describe on the sfc plot....the weakening circulation in the eastern lakes and the apparent "brick wall" of Arctic air over New England that is dominating the synoptic picture there and forcing the whole sfc reflection to redevelop. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah John I think you are remembering the event you quoted with the sfc plot there on 12/16/07. The forecast was exactly that....3-6" before a flip to IP and then ZR. We had advisories out but no warning. Meanwhile, once the thing moved in, about 2 hours into it we knew the bust was coming....I wish eastern was still online to link back to that thread, but it was funny reading it. I was thinking "ok, were already at 5" and this sleet line is not making any progress and it's pounding at 2" per hour"...we knew we were going to be cracking 7-10" and that's exactly what happened. Of course, it was hard to actually predict that because we're we're washing out a marginal warm layer that was probably about 1-2 thousand feet thick. You know how that can go...it's like flipping a coin. If the omega was there, we could overcome it...esp if the omega was maxing out in the snow growth region. Getting the extra latent cooling from the attempted melting process in that thin warm layer. But you don't really know if it's going to happen until the event was underway. 

But it was a great system to learn from. You can see exactly what you describe on the sfc plot....the weakening circulation in the eastern lakes and the apparent "brick wall" of Arctic air over New England that is dominating the synoptic picture there and forcing the whole sfc reflection to redevelop. 

I wonder where that ranks..heh. It was definitely a positive bust (for those hobbyists in this for snow).

Thinking back on others, cold dammed underestimated air resistance appears consistent with all of those in mind.  1987, 1997, this one in tow... They were front walled and the models et al either over-estimated the mid level mechanics eroding/conducting/mixing it out, or... simply under-estimated the thick slab a the bottom's ability to f-you the event. 

I suspect the latter.

1987 was insanely bad. That sucker was supposed to be 1-3" of wet snow ...(WET!) .... as in, not even 1-3 of just snow going to pellets...zr and so forth.  It was 22 F when tiny aggegates started choking visibility down to 1/8th mile while pulsed sheet lightning celebrated 10 to 12" ...oh, it like terminated as freezing mist out around Acton later in the night.

1997 gives that a run for it's money... that was 2-4" in the Worcester Hills... 15 to 24" later people were in a cryo daze if not fear. It was a what-the-f storm if there's ever a definitino for one. I mean, it was like really out of left field for a huge population - ...pretty much, everybody. In fact, just the disparate forecast to encasement comparison alone probably should put this one as #1...but, since 1987 hit on a week-day between about 1pm and 7pm... the actual "NESDIAN" thing probably wins it...

But, those 2007 and 2008 front end jobs ...they get honorable mentions on that scale of positive busting - I'm sure there's others in the ranks.  But, I think there's a reason why we don't really see "nor'easter" busts - or at least, exceedingly rare compared to handling the low level cold issue.  Lots of advances in the tech that goes into modeling, but that bottom layer is still almost like an imaginary surface to the models it seems. 

 

 

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On 9/19/2018 at 11:18 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

How much more snow do you actually think falls in Methuen as oppose to Wilmington??? Honestly I do not think it is all that much especially on the east side of Methuen. The west side of Methuen near Pelham/Dracut probably receives more snowfall than Wilmington. There is a lengthy list of issues in Methuen that would require the yearly snowfall totals for the Tug Hill area to even begin to mitigate the issues.

It was mentioned multiple times that snowfall isn't much different. Its snow retention that is better there.

Anyway, I'm not going to be there for the rest of my life; once my wife gets her green card the bank will consider her income. But right now I'm funding the note alone and its more affordable there.

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16 hours ago, geo1 said:

Sorry to lose you Ray to the north east. It was fun to see the difference between my side of Wilmington and yours now it will be a few towns away. Good luck with your new purchase hope it fulfills your families needs at this juncture.

I'll still be there a good amount...lots of my life remains there.

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13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hey Jerry - how 'bout this...

 

image.thumb.png.86d06b9fb6c7ac552d1d8703f1c24443.png

That's step 1 right there... get the popcorn cellular graupel and rain/snow showers going under a cold pool.  That's 99% of the time how we see our first flakes.  In some fast moving shower that starts as rain and goes to graupel and snow at its core, before the sun comes back out after it passes.  Then repeat that process about 10-15 times throughout the day.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That's step 1 right there... get the popcorn cellular graupel and rain/snow showers going under a cold pool.  That's 99% of the time how we see our first flakes.  In some fast moving shower that starts as rain and goes to graupel and snow at its core, before the sun comes back out after it passes.  Then repeat that process about 10-15 times throughout the day.

Heh right... 

although, I guess it would be nice if were not '360+' hours out in time... but, you know?  I have to be honest - I've been holding back the following observations to try and hold reader eyeballs still, but I have noticed some relative success with longer ranged operational GFS ... think more at the 'concept' level.  Case in point, it often began bulging heights over the EC some 300 hours ahead of those warm/hot episodes we had this last summer.  

Not sure if that phenomenon will repeat going the other direction, but, it did also start carving heights out over middle Canadian latitudes  well over 10 days ago too and we are seeing now a -EPO being pretty well agreed upon by the bevy of technology, so we'll see -

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