Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I only pop over to this thread for some pre-Winter discussion, but there has been some interesting talk in here. I don't get into any of the specifics regarding average global temperature, climate change, etc. But a few observations I can make locally; winters in this area arent warming, there is minor warming in the other seasons, but the main factor of that warming is increasing minimum temperatures (UHI?). Average high temperatures do not seem to be changing much.  And this is most notable summer nights. 

The whole point of my post was mostly to say that going warm in winters over NA actually hasn't been working out more than going cold over the past decade or 15 years against 30 year normals. I'm sure we will see a resumption of the warming trend in winter at some point. But for whatever reason...."warm Arctic, cold continents" pattern being the most popular right now...winter has seen a decades long pause in warming over the middle latitudes. It is debatable how long that will continue....will the warm Arctic cold continents pattern get more amplified? Or will it "max out"? We don't know over the shorter term. Over the longer term, the background warming will win out....but I can guarantee you nobody predicted winters to have a hard time warming over Asia, Europe and North America over the past 20-30 years...not until it happened and we now have an explanation in hindsight. 

We should also keep in mind that when discussing winter, the standard deviation of temps is orders of magnitude greater than the underlying long term warming trend anyway. So you're going to continue to see below normal winters fairly regularly even when the warming resumes. It will just be slightly skewed toward positive. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some curveballs thrown at me amongst the data this week....I tried to bin ENSO analogs by peak ONI and potential modoki value.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-weak-moderate-el-nino-analogs.html

[stadiumwave]

On 8/13/2018 at 10:36 PM, stadiumwave said:

Preliminary thought:

Good bet on -EPO/-AO/+NAO during coldest periods with a periodic -NAO block at times. It's really hard to ignore 2014-15 as a strong analog so far. 2002-2003 & 2009-10 bares a little weight but I think El Nino's too strong those years to be an analog...or at least an analog for ENSO purposes.

Great Lakes & North East coast could see some really cold periods. 

Tennessee Valley, Carolina Coast to mid-Atlantic could be jackpot for snow. NE will get their share but jackpot further south. 

 

 

 

 

On 8/14/2018 at 7:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone with even a modicum of knowledge regarding ENSO snowfall climo would perceive these as conflicting assertions.

I agree that el nino will be weaker than 2003 and 2010, which favored the mid atlantic. Weak el nino events favor sne.....NOT further south.

That is wrong.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 

 

Well, we surely need to revise our collective conceptualization of weak el nino climo based upon an hour 3,600 snowfall algorithm.

No doubt-

 

[stadiumwave]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we surely need to revise our collective conceptualization of weak el nino climo based upon an hour 3,600 snowfall algorithm.

No doubt-

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 

Not saying it can't happen...of course it could, but I wouldn't favor it at this point.

[#NoPoles]

An item on my bucket list is to experience a western ski area snow storm. I have actually set some money aside so I can make it happen if it looks like a good season to try to knock that item off my bucket list. 

I realize this thread is for our winter potential and i honestly dont want to hijack this thread...but im wondering if any of you have any thoughts on what this winter will be like for the sierras and or northern AZ and NM?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

An item on my bucket list is to experience a western ski area snow storm. I have actually set some money aside so I can make it happen if it looks like a good season to try to knock that item off my bucket list. 

I realize this thread is for our winter potential and i honestly dont want to hijack this thread...but im wondering if any of you have any thoughts on what this winter will be like for the sierras and or northern AZ and NM?

I don't think this will be the year to do it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

An item on my bucket list is to experience a western ski area snow storm. I have actually set some money aside so I can make it happen if it looks like a good season to try to knock that item off my bucket list. 

I realize this thread is for our winter potential and i honestly dont want to hijack this thread...but im wondering if any of you have any thoughts on what this winter will be like for the sierras and or northern AZ and NM?

Big west ridge incoming, bone dry there.

[raindancewx]

4 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

An item on my bucket list is to experience a western ski area snow storm. I have actually set some money aside so I can make it happen if it looks like a good season to try to knock that item off my bucket list. 

I realize this thread is for our winter potential and i honestly dont want to hijack this thread...but im wondering if any of you have any thoughts on what this winter will be like for the sierras and or northern AZ and NM?

The mountains here are almost always between 0F-30F from mid-Nov to mid-Mar - nearly ideal snow conditions. Taos Ski Valley averages around 300 inches. Someone in New Mexico will just about always do well for snow in an El Nino, the ski resort 15 minutes away from Albuquerque had 30-40 inches by Dec 31 2015. 2014-15 had 70-100 inches of snow in all the resorts in a five day period in late February. 2009-10 was excellent for the eastern slopes. Most of the resorts had near record snow in 2004-05, which much of it in March. The only real bad El Nino in the last 30 years was 2002-03, and despite some similarities to this year, the PDO, Solar and ENSO conditions are very different. Most of the resorts will see a +20% type snow anomaly here this year. There are some years that are Ski Apache years (near MX), Ski Taos years (near CO), and Ski Sandia years (near Albuquerque) in El Ninos - but at least some of the resorts will do well. Late Nov, late Dec, mid-January, late February all look pretty promising to me for big mountain snows here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Modoki el nino events are drier in the west on average...I don't think that is debatable.

Maybe the mountains will still get above average snowfall, but canonical el nino events are better.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modoki el nino events are drier in the west on average...I don't think that is debatable.

Maybe the mountains will still get above average snowfall, but canonical el nino events are better.

Geezuz Euro seasonal would be awesome 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezuz Euro seasonal would be awesome 

Where did you get that?

-EPO/AO/NAO, +PDO/PNA haha

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where did you get that?

-EPO/AO/NAO, +PDO/PNA haha

Friends in low places

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Friends in low places

Thanks for posting.

Looks like pretty classic weak modoki.

Ridging in northwestern Canada...

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks 40/70 Benchmark for an intresting read. 

 

[JBinStoughton]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where did you get that?

-EPO/AO/NAO, +PDO/PNA haha

I’ll take it!

[raindancewx]

On 9/6/2018 at 6:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modoki el nino events are drier in the west on average...I don't think that is debatable.

Maybe the mountains will still get above average snowfall, but canonical el nino events are better.

Here the monsoon kind of blows everything else out of the water for long range winter precip trends, especially if filtered by ENSO. Modoki structure doesn't mean jack here for precip. 2006 and 2009 were both Modoki El Ninos, but of a different flavor. Albuquerque had near record record precip in 2006, a bit dry in 2009. We're closer to 2006 honestly, not a strong El Nino, and the warmest waters won't be as far west. Modoki stuff matters for temps and analogs here, not really for precip - long term correlation is very weak here.

The monsoon has been average to above average in Western NM / AZ - and my analogs have near average to above average precipitation here and for AZ. Eastern NM has been dry, and the the rain/snow signals show up as dry there. Here are some long term looks at the Monsoon v. winter out here - I'm running +10% for 6/15-9/6 using 1981-2010 means, and +20% v. 1931-2017 means. Monsoon correlations to winter precipitation are incredible in Arizona for what its worth.

 

[weathafella]

On 9/6/2018 at 10:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Geezuz Euro seasonal would be awesome 

Sound the alarms-ring dem bells!

[stadiumwave]

On 9/6/2018 at 9:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Geezuz Euro seasonal would be awesome 

 

That's 2 months on a row of similar output. I still don't really pay attention until Oct. Even then skill isn't great for any model but trends in forecasts are helpful. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

Sound the alarms-ring dem bells!

Jerry, have you started your Soviet snow cover spectacular anywhere yet?

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here the monsoon kind of blows everything else out of the water for long range winter precip trends, especially if filtered by ENSO. Modoki structure doesn't mean jack here for precip. 2006 and 2009 were both Modoki El Ninos, but of a different flavor. Albuquerque had near record record precip in 2006, a bit dry in 2009. We're closer to 2006 honestly, not a strong El Nino, and the warmest waters won't be as far west. Modoki stuff matters for temps and analogs here, not really for precip - long term correlation is very weak here.

The monsoon has been average to above average in Western NM / AZ - and my analogs have near average to above average precipitation here and for AZ. Eastern NM has been dry, and the the rain/snow signals show up as dry there. Here are some long term looks at the Monsoon v. winter out here - I'm running +10% for 6/15-9/6 using 1981-2010 means, and +20% v. 1931-2017 means. Monsoon correlations to winter precipitation are incredible in Arizona for what its worth.

 

Again, for the west in general, modoki isn't as wet.

How were 1977-78, 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 where you are?

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Jerry, have you started your Soviet snow cover spectacular anywhere yet?

About another week. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again, for the west in general, modoki isn't as wet.

How were 1977-78, 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 where you are?

I was in California 77-78-rained a ton!  Was among the wettest on record.

[raindancewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again, for the west in general, modoki isn't as wet.

How were 1977-78, 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 where you are?

2004-05 is my 2nd wettest winter since 1931. 1977-78 and 2014-15 were both extremely wet here. Like I said...it doesn't matter here.

Albuquerque Precip     Dec    Jan    Feb    DJF
1992    1.16    0.94    1.82    3.92
2004    0.30    1.38    1.78    3.46
1982    0.78    1.10    0.71    2.59
1959    1.85    0.34    0.38    2.57
1977    0.13    1.32    1.02    2.47
1978    0.76    1.07    0.62    2.45
2014    1.14    0.70    0.61    2.45
1984    1.36    0.49    0.54    2.39
2006    1.50    0.18    0.70    2.38
1947    1.05    0.00    1.31    2.36
1979    0.87    0.87    0.58    2.32
1991    1.49    0.60    0.20    2.29
1940    0.87    1.17    0.20    2.24
1965    1.42    0.42    0.30    2.14
2007    1.14    0.39    0.41    1.94
2016    0.51    1.04    0.35    1.90
1934    0.78    0.91    0.20    1.89
2011    1.18    0.40    0.26    1.84
1943    0.94    0.46    0.42    1.82
1997    1.00    0.14    0.66    1.80
1961    0.65    1.01    0.11    1.77
1974    0.51    0.26    0.99    1.76
1986    0.44    0.66    0.61    1.71
1971    1.40    0.12    0.12    1.64
1942    1.10    0.25    0.26    1.61
1958    1.35    0.17    0.04    1.56
1994    0.62    0.55    0.39    1.56
1964    0.49    0.47    0.60    1.56
1967    0.56    0.01    0.98    1.55
1972    0.36    0.85    0.33    1.54
1980    0.74    0.05    0.67    1.46
1944    0.76    0.34    0.32    1.42
2015    0.98    0.37    0.05    1.40
1985    0.16    0.22    1.01    1.39
1938    0.36    0.70    0.32    1.38
2002    0.36    0.00    1.02    1.38
2003    0.11    0.10    1.17    1.38
1956    0.00    0.78    0.59    1.37
1990    0.59    0.60    0.06    1.25
1968    0.82    0.08    0.34    1.24
1976    0.20    0.88    0.13    1.21
1939    0.10    0.52    0.58    1.20
1963    0.00    0.07    1.12    1.19
2010    1.07    0.07    0.04    1.18
1955    0.22    0.46    0.49    1.17
1937    0.48    0.12    0.49    1.09
1931    0.07    0.45    0.54    1.06
1935    0.36    0.55    0.13    1.04
1962    0.51    0.29    0.24    1.04
1973    0.03    0.88    0.11    1.02
1969    0.72    0.00    0.27    0.99
1949    0.59    0.02    0.38    0.99
1948    0.11    0.58    0.29    0.98
1989    0.28    0.21    0.49    0.98
2009    0.15    0.64    0.17    0.96
1988    0.03    0.57    0.35    0.95
1945    0.35    0.25    0.33    0.93
1941    0.23    0.13    0.54    0.90
1957    0.32    0.21    0.27    0.80
2000    0.24    0.28    0.27    0.79
1983    0.42    0.33    0.00    0.75
1960    0.39    0.23    0.10    0.72
1970    0.23    0.27    0.21    0.71
1975    0.28    0.00    0.40    0.68
1950    0.00    0.41    0.27    0.68
1996    0.00    0.55    0.12    0.67
2001    0.24    0.34    0.07    0.65
1951    0.28    0.20    0.17    0.65
2008    0.65    0.00    0.00    0.65
1952    0.20    0.00    0.43    0.63
1999    0.03    0.30    0.30    0.63
1954    0.14    0.29    0.18    0.61
2013    0.40    0.00    0.18    0.58
1987    0.34    0.15    0.07    0.56
1995    0.17    0.17    0.19    0.53
1953    0.29    0.20    0.03    0.52
1981    0.00    0.32    0.20    0.52
1936    0.13    0.24    0.11    0.48
2012    0.12    0.11    0.24    0.47
1932    0.37    0.08    0.01    0.46
1966    0.01    0.01    0.44    0.46
1998    0.22    0.12    0.00    0.34
1993    0.03    0.02    0.26    0.31
1946    0.12    0.02    0.14    0.28
1933    0.05    0.06    0.04    0.15
2005    0.10    0.04    0.00    0.14
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

2004-05 is my 2nd wettest winter since 1931. 1977-78 and 2014-15 were both extremely wet here. Like I said...it doesn't matter here.

Albuquerque Precip     Dec    Jan    Feb    DJF
1992    1.16    0.94    1.82    3.92
2004    0.30    1.38    1.78    3.46
1982    0.78    1.10    0.71    2.59
1959    1.85    0.34    0.38    2.57
1977    0.13    1.32    1.02    2.47
1978    0.76    1.07    0.62    2.45
2014    1.14    0.70    0.61    2.45
1984    1.36    0.49    0.54    2.39
2006    1.50    0.18    0.70    2.38
1947    1.05    0.00    1.31    2.36
1979    0.87    0.87    0.58    2.32
1991    1.49    0.60    0.20    2.29
1940    0.87    1.17    0.20    2.24
1965    1.42    0.42    0.30    2.14
2007    1.14    0.39    0.41    1.94
2016    0.51    1.04    0.35    1.90
1934    0.78    0.91    0.20    1.89
2011    1.18    0.40    0.26    1.84
1943    0.94    0.46    0.42    1.82
1997    1.00    0.14    0.66    1.80
1961    0.65    1.01    0.11    1.77
1974    0.51    0.26    0.99    1.76
1986    0.44    0.66    0.61    1.71
1971    1.40    0.12    0.12    1.64
1942    1.10    0.25    0.26    1.61
1958    1.35    0.17    0.04    1.56
1994    0.62    0.55    0.39    1.56
1964    0.49    0.47    0.60    1.56
1967    0.56    0.01    0.98    1.55
1972    0.36    0.85    0.33    1.54
1980    0.74    0.05    0.67    1.46
1944    0.76    0.34    0.32    1.42
2015    0.98    0.37    0.05    1.40
1985    0.16    0.22    1.01    1.39
1938    0.36    0.70    0.32    1.38
2002    0.36    0.00    1.02    1.38
2003    0.11    0.10    1.17    1.38
1956    0.00    0.78    0.59    1.37
1990    0.59    0.60    0.06    1.25
1968    0.82    0.08    0.34    1.24
1976    0.20    0.88    0.13    1.21
1939    0.10    0.52    0.58    1.20
1963    0.00    0.07    1.12    1.19
2010    1.07    0.07    0.04    1.18
1955    0.22    0.46    0.49    1.17
1937    0.48    0.12    0.49    1.09
1931    0.07    0.45    0.54    1.06
1935    0.36    0.55    0.13    1.04
1962    0.51    0.29    0.24    1.04
1973    0.03    0.88    0.11    1.02
1969    0.72    0.00    0.27    0.99
1949    0.59    0.02    0.38    0.99
1948    0.11    0.58    0.29    0.98
1989    0.28    0.21    0.49    0.98
2009    0.15    0.64    0.17    0.96
1988    0.03    0.57    0.35    0.95
1945    0.35    0.25    0.33    0.93
1941    0.23    0.13    0.54    0.90
1957    0.32    0.21    0.27    0.80
2000    0.24    0.28    0.27    0.79
1983    0.42    0.33    0.00    0.75
1960    0.39    0.23    0.10    0.72
1970    0.23    0.27    0.21    0.71
1975    0.28    0.00    0.40    0.68
1950    0.00    0.41    0.27    0.68
1996    0.00    0.55    0.12    0.67
2001    0.24    0.34    0.07    0.65
1951    0.28    0.20    0.17    0.65
2008    0.65    0.00    0.00    0.65
1952    0.20    0.00    0.43    0.63
1999    0.03    0.30    0.30    0.63
1954    0.14    0.29    0.18    0.61
2013    0.40    0.00    0.18    0.58
1987    0.34    0.15    0.07    0.56
1995    0.17    0.17    0.19    0.53
1953    0.29    0.20    0.03    0.52
1981    0.00    0.32    0.20    0.52
1936    0.13    0.24    0.11    0.48
2012    0.12    0.11    0.24    0.47
1932    0.37    0.08    0.01    0.46
1966    0.01    0.01    0.44    0.46
1998    0.22    0.12    0.00    0.34
1993    0.03    0.02    0.26    0.31
1946    0.12    0.02    0.14    0.28
1933    0.05    0.06    0.04    0.15
2005    0.10    0.04    0.00    0.14
 

Okay.

It does across the rest of the west, as you can see from your map.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I was in California 77-78-rained a ton!  Was among the wettest on record.

Yea, look like the northwest is dry.

[weathafella]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, look like the northwest is dry.

Looking at Seattle-2015 was mildly wet and the other 2 years in the sample were mildly dry.   Average annual qpf is 39 inches (less than Boston).   The range in those years is from 33.99 in 1978 to 44.83 in 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looking at Seattle-2015 was mildly wet and the other 2 years in the sample were mildly dry.   Average annual qpf is 39 inches (less than Boston).   The range in those years is from 33.99 in 1978 to 44.83 in 2015.

Seems incongruent with that map. Anyway, its either a sample size issue, and/or its drier in nw Canada. All modoki seasons would probably be more viable.

[weathafella]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems incongruent with that map. Anyway, its either a sample size issue, and/or its drier in nw Canada. All modoki seasons would probably be more viable.

Yeah I just looked at the years vs season but peeking at the year before validated the results roughly.  I think a 3 season sample doesn’t help.  Often the ridging in the goak translates down to OR.  But the Pineapple Express into California particularly southern areas sets the stage for our fun here.