Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’re right. It’s not. But it’s long enough to know what setup will yield an amazing wind event. It will be windy but nothing memorable outside the high elevations and right on the coast. In between it will be windy. With mostly cloudy skies and temps in the 40s. Hardly anything to be excited about. Isn't your opinion that nothing save the derecho has been noteworthy We do often fail with wind events. Some are pretty good but fail to hit top end expectations. This one has unusual consensus across all guidance for an impact event. If any hyped wind event is going to perform, the odds of this one are pretty high. Top of the mixing layer is progged to have sustained hurricane force for more than a couple hours. I can't remember the last time I've seen that with non-tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 We do often fail with wind events. Some are pretty good but fail to hit top end expectations. This one has unusual consensus across all guidance for an impact event. If any hyped wind event is going to perform, the odds of this one are pretty high. Top of the mixing layer is progged to have sustained hurricane force for more than a couple hours. I can't remember the last time I've seen that with non-tropical. YepPeople around here are used to the 30 minute thunderstorm winds not the 10 hour hurricane winds. They always seem so weak when they get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We do often fail with wind events. Some are pretty good but fail to hit top end expectations. This one has unusual consensus across all guidance for an impact event. If any hyped wind event is going to perform, the odds of this one are pretty high. Top of the mixing layer is progged to have sustained hurricane force for more than a couple hours. I can't remember the last time I've seen that with non-tropical. Well if you are impressed then perhaps it’s legit. I am not just being contrary to be a d-bag but quite often we fail at most events that are progged to be memorable. Maybe this will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Well if you are impressed then perhaps it’s legit. I am not just being contrary to be a d-bag but quite often we fail at most events that are progged to be memorable. Maybe this will be different It may still fail and that's my actual hope as I have to drive to work tomorrow and drop the kid at daycareBut disregarding potential due to previous experience will eventually bite you in the ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: It may still fail and that's my actual hope as I have to drive to work tomorrow and drop the kid at daycare But disregarding potential due to previous experience will eventually bite you in the ass Yes it will. Cheers to the wind. I hope it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Texas oaks are pretty stout. I know, I've been down there. Austin is where I spent 8 months in 2015 getting all of my rotten teeth extracted, lol. Its a HOT place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Well if you are impressed then perhaps it’s legit. I am not just being contrary to be a d-bag but quite often we fail at most events that are progged to be memorable. Maybe this will be different It subjective so we all have our own criteria at to what is legit and what is underwhelming. If all 3 airports log multiple 60+mph gusts then this will go down as a rare significant wind event in my book. If the peak gusts end up in the low to mid 50s then it's a significant but not uncommon event. However, if there are hourly 50mph gusts for 6-8 hours the that's pretty high end too. One of the unique parts of this setup is duration. Many times after a super front or something like that we get big winds but only for a couple hours before it backs off. Tomorrow could be many hours of pulses because of the unusual low track. It actually gets closer over time even though it starts to the north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The storm cant move farther north because of the block. So, it will move south then eventually east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just in case a huge tree gets snapped off and then tumbles in a rogue 70 mph gust and demolishes my house....... Its been great knowing you all. I love the weather, I just dont like excessive winds. I cant complain, I have had a wonderful life. Live each day like its your last. You never know what may happen. Find love and laugh a lot. Go chase a big snowstorm and jebwalk in it to the MAX. Thats a recipe for a long happy life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 the winds are going to blow winter away completely. 70s + by end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Jebman said: Just in case a huge tree gets snapped off and then tumbles in a rogue 70 mph gust and demolishes my house....... Its been great knowing you all. I love the weather, I just dont like excessive winds. I cant complain, I have had a wonderful life. Live each day like its your last. You never know what may happen. Find love and laugh a lot. Go chase a big snowstorm and jebwalk in it to the MAX. Thats a recipe for a long happy life. lol with a post like that you need a paying sponsor- you know like them tv ads. something sad like the pill people advertise or any of that boo hoo stuff they show before a big game. heart wrenching stuf. dilly dilly. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Gotta love Rays snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 on a side note, brewing beer really is legit. i don't particularly love beer, but my friend brewed some good stuff the last time. it literally tastes better than a lot of the store stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Jebman said: The storm cant move farther north because of the block. So, it will move south then eventually east. So the -NAO actually blocks one storm into an east track....and that east track ends up screwing us over next week's storm? (Forgive me if I'm conflating things here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I'm glad they closed schools and gov't. there i said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, H2O said: those aren't PBR stains. TMI, H2O. TMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 It may still fail and that's my actual hope as I have to drive to work tomorrow and drop the kid at daycareBut disregarding potential due to previous experience will eventually bite you in the ass Lol opm closed which means my daycare closed which means I stay homeStorm overperformed in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Damn. Dominion Energy is saying that over 130,000 w/o power mostly in NoVa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 If I leave work early its to go get a kite. Down on the mall seems like a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Not going to lie, I'm a tad jealous of @WxWatcher007 recently and his snowy trips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: This time I got lucky. I just happened to be up here for a mix of business and pleasure. I don't have gloves or good boots lol because I didn't think I'd need them. Really happy this is working out in my area but if the gf weren't so adamant about her hatred of snow I'd be in Hunter, NY taking in 2'+. The things we do for love...or rather, to keep the peace enjoy it either way, friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This time I got lucky. I just happened to be up here for a mix of business and pleasure. I don't have gloves or good boots lol because I didn't think I'd need them. Really happy this is working out in my area but if the gf weren't so adamant about her hatred of snow I'd be in Hunter, NY taking in 2'+. The things we do for love...or rather, to keep the peace if you just show her how stable and well adjusted us weather nerds are she will become one of us faster than you can say Ninas suck for snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Impossible task. I was running through the house at 2am pumping my fist at -SN. ok now thats just weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: In MY defense, the forecast 12 hours ago was rain/snow slop that would barely accumulate. When it was clear the NAM was busting warm it was cause to celebrate. I'm just bustin. Hell, I've been telling mappy all morning how I want to go on the roof of my building when a big wind gust comes through just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I know My gf was not. She thinks we're all freaks, wishing misery and chaos on the masses. that happens regardless of our wants and desires. if we really wanted misery and chaos on the masses we would force people to read my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, H2O said: if we really wanted misery and chaos on the masses we would force people to read my posts. Sounds like an excellent qualification for the presidency. Have you thought about running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sounds like an excellent qualification for the presidency. Have you thought about running? too many skeletons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Wife's plane in the air coming home. We'll see if she voms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Tell her to drink lots of soda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Tell her to drink lots of sodaShe always gets bloody Mary mix without the boozeSo it'll be some colorful stuff if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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