weathafella Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Models insisting on warm bl temperatures in eastern areas signaled the issues. We didn’t buy it but the insistence on guidance across the spectrum should have been the flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, scoob40 said: Are u going to apologize to correnjm ? After all u did say he would owe 40/70 one. I was dead-wrong. Guilty as charged; no contest. This was my worst forecast...beating out 4/1 last year. I'm going to start getting gun shy on marginal late season events...need a short memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Models insisting on warm bl temperatures in eastern areas signaled the issues. We didn’t buy it but the insistence on guidance across the spectrum should have been the flag. It was a combo of that being real and an early cut off of precip. $hit sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I bet union is really getting smoked. They are in the middle of it now. Kind of like I was about 30 min ago and it's pretty legit. Would have been fun to get 6-8 hours of that. That would have been my 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was dead-wrong. Guilty as charged; no contest. This was my worst forecast...beating out 4/1 last year. I'm going to start getting gun shy on marginal late season events...need a short memory. I'm not apologizing to anyone I do not feel put an honest effort into forecasting the storm. Might seem deushy, and it's nothing against Jim. I bet Jim is a great guy. Does that mean he looked at every run? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I'm not apologizing to anyone I do not feel put an honest effort into forecasting the storm. Might seem deushy, and it's nothing against Jim. I bet Jim is a great guy. Does that mean he looked at every run? No. I think he was aware that every piece of guidance gave us next to nothing and called a spade a spade. Sometimes weather is simple and it's easy to lose sight of the forest through the trees while trying in vain to reinvent the atmospheric wheel. All of us forecasting snow were scared $hitless for the same reason that many like him were pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 I beat the rip n readers in asserting that the storm would not whiff, but they tooled me in precip type....it's great to be privy to model biases etc, but nothing is applicable all of the time....sometimes guidance is just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I beat the rip n readers in asserting that the storm would not whiff, but they tooled me in precip type....it's great to be privy to model biases etc, but nothing is applicable all of the time....sometimes guidance is just right. Sorry this one sucked snowwise for you guys (us NYC guys got burned by the 12” the high res RGEM had this morning!! Congrats Philly for along I-95, wow at the Catskills) You had a great discussion and it made perfect sense, this one just didn’t pan out in terms of enough cold air below 850. The wind and surge part definitely overproduced though. Looks like there’s additional chances coming. Here’s to one we can all enjoy!! This is one crazy nor’easter though, no joke. Sandy sits on its own pedestal here, but this isn’t far from Irene in this area windwise. Luckily we lost our weak trees in 2010-2012, still some damage here and plenty of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 hours ago, weathafella said: Models insisting on warm bl temperatures in eastern areas signaled the issues. We didn’t buy it but the insistence on guidance across the spectrum should have been the flag. Elephant dreams.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Ground is white this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ground is white this morning Dude holy crap at NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Really easy clean up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Really easy clean up this morning. Tackling branch twig removal as soon as it's light then back up on the roof. Incredible 90 plus winds on the Cape verified at multiple stations. Think Dec 05 was the last time that happenned and that was a smaller portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Snowed well after midnight AWT Does this count as a white Xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowed well after midnight AWT Does this count as a white Xmas? Congrats, and no. That's a 0.1 for the books though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The real snow comes tomorrow night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tackling branch twig removal as soon as it's light then back up on the roof. Incredible 90 plus winds on the Cape verified at multiple stations. Think Dec 05 was the last time that happenned and that was a smaller portion Yeah...obviously I meant snow cleanup. Disaster for you guys with the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Still windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowed well after midnight AWT Does this count as a white Xmas? Now you know what it’s like to get a hard frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah...obviously I meant snow cleanup. Disaster for you guys with the high winds. Lol I know that. Was cool watching the Bernoullis Principle in the toilet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still windy Power ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Now you know what it’s like to get a hard frost. Not even a twig in the yard, DIT missed it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Not even a twig in the yard, DIT missed it all I can’t believe he leaves the truck outside to get snowed on. What is he hoarding in his garage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Power ? I do. Was only off for about 90min. Local power company TMLP FTW. Looks like I ended up with ~4.24-4.34" (3.74 observed and another .5-.6 while the ASOS was offline) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: I can’t believe he leaves the truck outside to get snowed on. What is he hoarding in his garage? Treehouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Mess out there, but I actually branches blown into neighbors yard..lol. Wind FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think he was aware that every piece of guidance gave us next to nothing and called a spade a spade. Sometimes weather is simple and it's easy to lose sight of the forest through the trees while trying in vain to reinvent the atmospheric wheel. All of us forecasting snow were scared $hitless for the same reason that many like him were pessimistic. Marginal events are tough. We've seen models vomit on themselves many times in the past for the sfc temps. If there's one thing that made this a bit tougher in hindsight was that we advected warm air into the system during the morning and then tried to re-cool it...that can be tough. When we look at events like March 2013 or April 1997 or even the first of the double barrel December 1996 storms, we weren't warming the BL during the storm and then trying to reverse it. It was cooling from the beginning, so I think that makes it easier even if you are starting pretty warm because you aren't contaminating the source region. But even that said, this one wasn't far from being a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 My original rain call was a good one. I did waver as we got closer and the thermals started improving and we saw snow coming out of the models so I added a changeover to snow on my thoughts. The thing that now sticks in my mind that should have been a red flag was the winds at 850mb. They were 80kts plus. That just completely tainted the BL with marine air that was just never going to be overcome from a crappy antecedent airmass to begin with. Had we had about a 3-5C cooler airmass to begin with we would be looking at a completely different landscape this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not even a twig in the yard, DIT missed it all I picked up a bunch after my run . Post up the pictures of the trees down there and hole in the roof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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