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40/70 Benchmark

Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose

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Decent overall consensus emerging, first time in days

I posted this in the other thread... below most recent Box AFD gave me pause... take this 18z GFS verbatim, I'd think rates are plenty for dynamic cooling 21z Fri onwards...

Snow...

Ageostropic flow turns from the northwest Thursday night and
from the west Friday. This may tap some cold air over Ontario,
but it does not look enough to overcome the 80-90 knot low level
east-northeast jet screaming in from Mass Bay and the Gulf of
Maine. Some snow is possible over the Berkshires, especially as
the storm starts moving off to the east. Rain and snow may mix
Friday and Friday night. We will look at an inch or two of
snow accumulation, mainly in the higher elevations of the
Berkshire east slopes.

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Harvey hitting all points.  lowest confidence in snow and amounts.

It’s going to take time to sort all this out.  100+ pages in the other thread and still many questions.

Every 6 or 12 hours another solution.

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Like multiple forum threads, most guidance now shows multiple bobbling low centers as system captures and stacks... a key thing to watch going forward.

Sometimes this is how guidance hints at a shift and ultimately consolidates onto one center... and/or it is a realistic depiction of how all that vorticity exiting NJ is handled... but will be a critical thing to trend tonight. It will also influence how coherent inflow is into the firehose, and how quickly this all drags southeast.

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There’s still rain in the forecast for the white mtns but the way the forecast discussions are written sounds like we may hang onto all snow.  The GYX winter weather site has most likely snowfall is 5-6” here in Jackson but on the high end 2’.  I’d say low confidence indeed.  Hoping for the wobble to go our way - we are seriously hurting for snowpack.  2’ would only bring us back to about a 2/15 level of snowpack. Dwindling fast without a stellar March.  

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51 minutes ago, WeatherNurse said:

There’s still rain in the forecast for the white mtns but the way the forecast discussions are written sounds like we may hang onto all snow.  The GYX winter weather site has most likely snowfall is 5-6” here in Jackson but on the high end 2’.  I’d say low confidence indeed.  Hoping for the wobble to go our way - we are seriously hurting for snowpack.  2’ would only bring us back to about a 2/15 level of snowpack. Dwindling fast without a stellar March.  

My local bump, Wachusett, really needs some love

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably closer to the lower end...I think you may be near a fairly sharp cut off.

That's a fair call. Good luck with your final forecast tomorrow!

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Wow ...so here we go.  This should be very interesting thread and hopefully, folks can stay connected - we have to consider pretty pan-dimensional losses. 

Charge your phones tonight! :)

Anyway, I was poking around Wunder' for meso temps and many areas of central NE right down the Mass Boarder are coming in with 39 to 41 F this hour. Perhaps more importantly, enough DPs of 26 and 29F to suggest we might have had some sort of boundary or subtle air change move through. I looked at these same obs just three or four hours ago, and we were talking 55/37 ...  Not sure of this significance, but, considering the mid level heights descending so deeply tomorrow ...if for any reason at all the low levels are being miss-assessed for cold air, this thing is only (marginal+ 1 or 2C) which isn't a whole hell of a lot of wiggle room.

I think many would be happy to now-cast/ ob the snow and/or transitioning areas ... Also, what temperature that occurs might be interesting.

The bigger threats for this are coastal flood, wind ... and I wonder if this could over perform in the latter. I mentioned in the other thread ... I've never seen a storm have trouble snowing amid CCBs when imploding 525 DAM in the core just underneath in the total cyclone structure.  That's going to be neat... But what this system may lack in snow coverage...it may make up for in instability, and I wonder if we end up more proficiently/dynamically mixing momentum down than the standard model there. 

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8pm   Down to 36.2/29  after a high this afternoon of 48.5F  Late this afternoon temp started steadily falling and still is but at a slower pace..  Dew has been 28F late afternoon fell to 27F an hour ago but back up to 29F.  Start as some snow up here at elevation?  We shall see.  Good luck to all south of me...

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