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Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose


40/70 Benchmark

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wave the white flag man. Snow lovers lost this in New England. Only solace we can take is there’s zero warmth or spring in sight , and we’ll get our day back next week 

Not yet...

Verbatim 18z NAM does not have it snowing in BOS until later 8-9pm tonight... I think the 0z-4z timeframe can produce.

My 4-8" call for Boston will probably fail, but at this point I just want to avoid the shutout.

I'll be happy with even a dynamic flash and inch covering, and guidance supports that.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another late season marginal event that owned me...next time, I'm just going to go low on snow...save days of obsession and a better verification. 

You and Harv...I give you credit going opposite of what he was saying...but I guess we know why he’s the Pro he is. 

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3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I'm telling ya, keep the faith. I'd feel a lot better in the interior near a place like N RI or SE MA or interior south shore than BOS, but....

 

RAD_KGYX_N0Z_ANI.gif

Whats site for that radar

Last half hour looks impressive out there

Its gotta keep chugging west a bit more And hold the latitude

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Not yet...

Verbatim 18z NAM does not have it snowing in BOS until later 8-9pm tonight... I think the 0z-4z timeframe can produce.

My 4-8" call for Boston will probably fail, but at this point I just want to avoid the shutout.

I'll be happy with even a dynamic flash and inch covering, and guidance supports that.

It's fair to go 1-4" at BOS for now. Can see it on the radar, and modeling supports it.

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16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I called this days ago, this would be a non-event for CT snow wise, and was laughed at. There still will be some 6-12" amounts in the NW hills but less than 1% lives there. 

I'm thinking this may be too high with totals but sticking with it, can't wait to see what verification looks like for this storm.

03_01.18_snow_forecast_1.thumb.jpg.f49d7b01ab99e0de69f3f5d16fc3a909.jpg

I think there was a lot of sound basis for arguments either way.  I don't think anyone should be laughed at for making a call based on sound judgement.  On the other hand, there's comments like this one without any sound basis:

5 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I posted this last Saturday about this event.......this storm sucks so bad.....just like this winter.....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50900-february-is-upon-us-pattern-change-is-in-order/?do=findComment&comment=4835096

 

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Here's a wider view of secondary pulse of precip for E MA/RI and maybe E CT later...you can see it out in the gulf of maine. But again, the cooling needs to happen so that this can be used for accumulating snow and not white rain

 

 

Mar2_513Radar.gif

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The NAO just got its azz totally kicked by the Pacific.  I pointed out using annotated charts earlier in the day ... that the larger scale planetary wave configuration did this system (and ultimately, colder enthusiasts) a big disservice.

This system isn't stalling long enough.  Also, I suspect that entire warmth of the domain prior to this thing's arrival, and not having enough of a 'fresh' cold air source, also was indirectly related to the SE ridge's influence ... The two together 86'ed this thing ... The SE ridge is a artifice of the Pacific residual butt-bang circulation over the last month, and it's influence is helping to squeeze/push/nudge this thing out despite the NAO. 

Also, just a thought - I haven't looked down stream (which is ironically "upstream" in this ordeal) ...but -NAOs will tend to import warm air from the NE given time. Yesterday's WPC surface analysis showed a a large warm front pushing into the Maritimes from the NE... I'm wondering if this circulation may have enrained warmth from that source. Probably not but who knows.  

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