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Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn't look much more promising in ORH hills either...I see a lot of 37s and 38s where we saw 35s and 36s a couple hours ago....pretty discouraging considering at the time everything was collapsing SE on dual pol. Not sure what the mechanism for warming is, but it's happening. Wonder if we got a little warm stinger at 925 or so that got mixed down?

Smowing heavy in Easton but at 35 not sticking. Disappointing

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn't look much more promising in ORH hills either...I see a lot of 37s and 38s where we saw 35s and 36s a couple hours ago....pretty discouraging considering at the time everything was collapsing SE on dual pol. Not sure what the mechanism for warming is, but it's happening. Wonder if we got a little warm stinger at 925 or so that got mixed down?

I thought the models hinted at this, the past day or so it seemed everything trended warmer up above even in the eastern high terrain....so the gfs was off but the idea of warmth being tough to conquer seemed common across the board, no?

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn't look much more promising in ORH hills either...I see a lot of 37s and 38s where we saw 35s and 36s a couple hours ago....pretty discouraging considering at the time everything was collapsing SE on dual pol. Not sure what the mechanism for warming is, but it's happening. Wonder if we got a little warm stinger at 925 or so that got mixed down?

Same here in Merrimack Valley. Noticed the temps to the northeast and northwest of me climb a degree or so since about 3pm. Currently sitting at 40.9/39. Stick a fork in it. At least for my neck of the woods.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn't look much more promising in ORH hills either...I see a lot of 37s and 38s where we saw 35s and 36s a couple hours ago....pretty discouraging considering at the time everything was collapsing SE on dual pol. Not sure what the mechanism for warming is, but it's happening. Wonder if we got a little warm stinger at 925 or so that got mixed down?

You thinking no snow now?

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nah... this thing has had a marked issue with any sort of continuity in any run, re cooler versus warmer profiles. 

enough so that whatever's take place over the last 24 hours was more likely noise.  whatever it is doing in the last 1.5 hours to warm things, is nuanced and un-modeled - i think this system has maxed for the region, and the dynamics are no longer punching through - but that's just me. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn't look much more promising in ORH hills either...I see a lot of 37s and 38s where we saw 35s and 36s a couple hours ago....pretty discouraging considering at the time everything was collapsing SE on dual pol. Not sure what the mechanism for warming is, but it's happening. Wonder if we got a little warm stinger at 925 or so that got mixed down?

Yeah dual pol was sampling that 850mb warm layer which is gone but there is definitely some BL warmth up to 925 ish that is screwing us here. CON and MHT are in the 40s... seems like some warm air got drawn into this whole circulation and we're advecting in a truly garbage airmass.

TBH, winds are overperforming today (compared to what I was thinking) because temperatures are actually rising and we're mixing quite well. 

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

2'' here...2 fooking inches. Got a .5'' in 3 hours...whoopie ******* do. What a POS winter. Absolute total trash...thank fooking God it's almost over. Luckily in TWO MONTHS we'll be tracking severe threats. Snowing for the majority of the day AND ONLY 2''. ****

You may want to consider a chaser because its seems the beer is not cutting it.

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3 hours ago, CT Rain said:

It does seem like some warmer air in the boundary layer has wrapped into the circulation. Temperatures have been increasing in most of central and eastern CT since this morning. 

The exact same warming occurred in the Merrimack Valley area of NE MA and SNH and along the Route 2 corridor. The storm will be one of those ones that "got away"....

 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You thinking no snow now?

Mayne not "no snow"...but I'm becoming very pessimistic for anything over 3 inches or so. Even that might be a struggle.....there should be significant cooling going on right now and I can't find it. Maybe we see some fast drops between now and 00z....and then maybe we can get about 4-6 hours of solid SN/SN+.....but I'm becoming pessimistic about it.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Mayne not "no snow"...but I'm becoming very pessimistic for anything over 3 inches or so. Even that might be a struggle.....there should be significant cooling going on right now and I can't find it. Maybe we see some fast drops between now and 00z....and then maybe we can get about 4-6 hours of solid SN/SN+.....but I'm becoming pessimistic about it.

Time to pull the plug on snow. This will be tough pill to swallow. We aren’t gonna magically find cold air. Tip gets his sick wish about his love of seeing snow lovers upset . I went from elation to deflation over the last 30 minutes. Maybe next week works out for us. 

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