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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


Cobalt

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I noticed, but I didn't want to bring it up. Some nice hits for up in our local. But the models have plenty of time to screw us over as well. :lol: 

I'm pretty much expecting this to continue to deteriorate. Looking at all the overnight guidance everything else handles the h5 progression the way the euro does. Taking that northeast into the lakes not digging it. The gfs is on its own. And it's starting to waver with bad runs and slow trends north. That's a pretty clear sign where it's heading. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm pretty much expecting this to continue to deteriorate. Looking at all the overnight guidance everything else handles the h5 progression the way the euro does. Taking that northeast into the lakes not digging it. The gfs is on its own. And it's starting to waver with bad runs and slow trends north. That's a pretty clear sign where it's heading. 

You could very well be right. But over the years I have found that quite often just when you think you know what the models are going to do they throw you a curve ball. So I won't give up, at least until I give up.

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I noticed, but I didn't want to bring it up. Some nice hits for up in our local. But the models have plenty of time to screw us over as well. :lol: 

oh? I haven't paid a lot of attention to the threat(s)

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gefs was a forum divider. Weenie run western VA and north of D.C.   Not so much south and east of DCA.  It really bumped up snow for day 5 for Baltimore north. Weeniest run yet for the northern 1/3. For the D.C. area it was only a slight improvement over 0z. 

There is another bump in snow from day 8-13. It's seeing both the clipper idea and the wave around the 12th. Scattering of hits for both ideas. 

With the tucked track it's showing it would be a divider. That track is usually awesome for us out here. Not so much to the east. But with the trends over the past 2 years I am not believing anything tucked to the coast. 

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53 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Our quixotic pursuit continues to the bemusement of the outside world:

00 UT EPS gives most of the forum approximately a 10% chance of >6" of snow centered on Monday March 12th - save your snow days? 

Amazing to think that we have a 4 SD drop in the AO and a 2 SD drop in the NAO but nothing in terms of snowfall, storms and rainfall yes, but not what we desire. 

I had thought for our area the combo of - AO and - NAO was a trump card but beginning to think that the Pac rules, If not  for the big time - EPO in December snowfall would have been even lower.

Another realization is that even SSWE  like the one we just had are as mentioned by some are over-rated for our area, seems that the effects are more so the other side of the Northern Hemisphere. I have witnessed numerous images of snowfall in Ireland, the UK, Rome and amazing the general impact area. 

Maybe the effect the AO and NAO are better in a EL Nnino background state. Longe range forecasting is fun but there is still so much to learn.  

 

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

Our quixotic pursuit continues to the bemusement of the outside world:

00 UT EPS gives most of the forum approximately a 10% chance of >6" of snow centered on Monday March 12th - save your snow days? 

thats unusally high right?

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Even the SSWE followers cautioned that they had no idea which hemisphere would be affected.  May just be luck there. 

I think the Pacific is more important too as it is upstream from us.  Hopefully, our next -NAO will be accompanied by a 50-50 low. 

The NWS as opposed to snow-lovers seem to put more weight on the El Nino background state in 2-3 week forecasts as opposed to model produced indices

.

Yes 10% is pretty high for a small time window 10 days out.  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know the 7th has been moving the wrong way on the GFS, however, 12z shows a little more confluence and lower heights in front of the SW at 54

Looking at h5 I’m going to say it won’t be good.  The better runs had the trough digging further south.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Looking at h5 I’m going to say it won’t be good.  The better runs had the trough digging further south.  

Agreed, just noticing heights out in front were a little better, also has it a little weaker in the plains, but its probably all negligible at this point.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Agreed, just noticing heights out in front were a little better, also has it a little weaker in the plains, but its probably all negligible at this point.

It’s uncanny how we just can’t get a snow threat to hold inside 5 days.  No matter what set up is thrown out it’s jusr never right.  

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Wouldn't give on it quite yet. Flattening the ridge out front giving a flatter flow. Let's see how it plays out.

Up top looks better too.  A little stronger -NAO and that 50/50 is trying to improve.

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Just now, Ji said:

its always a new hurdle. That ULL diving into the the other ULL seems to be something that is going to screw us

Yep.  Good for NE... not for us.  We would need that entire secenario to happen about 500 miles SW of where it is now.  

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

what a complete disaster......if that ULL in canada had left our US ULL alone...maybe

Take a look at 12z yesterday...That ULL in Canada wasn't even there.  Perhaps that feature is what the other globals have been keying on and why the GFS has been late to the party.

 

Edit: It is there but much further north.

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