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March Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


Cobalt

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28 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

I have a question but not sure if it will be ok to post here. It does have to do with March long term forecast and as I am not as proficient I need some help. If I should move this to another thread just let me know. :)

I am looking to bring a pony down from NJ for my daughter in March and am wanting to know what the next few weeks may hold with any storms. We hate driving the trailer in bad weather so want to avoid any nasty stuff like snow. If anyone is willing to help you can send me a message if we want to keep this thread clean. 

Thanks!

Well for sure I would avoid this Friday and Saturday. Looks windy as all get out and maybe snowy up in NJ but at the least a miserable day to drive with a trailer. 

After that is really too far out to know about specific days. There are multiple threats for storms in the area between the 7th and the 14th. Right now the timing of the waves is around the 7th, 11th and 13tg but timing things at that range can change and that's if there are even storms at all. You really can't do specifics like that past a few days out. Sorry if that doesn't help. 

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58 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don't trust it one bit.  And I won't go into detail lest I be called a debbie downer.  There is zero excitement on my end.  I got excited two nights ago when it showed a storm, even when I knew better.  Screw the GFS.  There is zero doubt in my mind that tonight will show a weak frontal passage with sprinkles at 0z.

I don't think we actually disagree on odds just maybe how we view and handle those odds.  If I had to bet any money that's probably how I would go. In my mind it's probably only a 30% chance something even just significant let alone HECS level comes of this pattern. Maybe higher odds that some of us at least see some snow again. But to me that's exciting. I don't get beat down by every failure.  I know that's my fate most of the time. 90% of "threats" I identify at range will fail. And even just pretty good pattern supported threats like this will fail 70% of the time from this range. I know that going in. But just having a chance at a big snow is exciting to me. Most of the time and 90% of this winter that option wasn't even on the table. So I don't fear the fail. I know it's more likely then shoveling a foot of snow and yea when it does fail there is a moment of disappointment but it's not some traumatic emotional beating that some others seem to go through so I don't feel the need to avoid excitement to reduce emotional let down. I'm aware of the low odds. But the odds are way higher then normal climo. That's all. 

One thing I do like about this threat is the pattern was there first and now some specific model support is coming around. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is way south of both the icon and ggem with the h5 low coming through the plains around day 4. Looks similar to 18z with that feature so far. 

this might be the weenie statement of the year but this important step here is only 96 hours away

gfs_z500_vort_us_17.png

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