NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: That's not true I’m ignoring the temps and going with the dynamics. Meteorology over modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: That's not true Actuslly it is Gfs is awful with the thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I’m ignoring the temps and going with the dynamics. Meteorology over modelology. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 April 1, 1997, but a month earlier and a smidge south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: First thing that came to mind I would not look at snowmaps or surface reflection right now look at h5 global models esp will struggle with dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs just caved to the Nam and Euro despite the thermals. Gfs has the coastal in a good spot for our area. Further east than the Nam. The GFS looks too far East given the ULL position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 CCB on GFS not nearly as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: CCB on GFS not nearly as robust. Of course not, it’s the GFS, which is a garbage model. The fact that it shows what it shows tells me that it’s a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The GFS looks too far East given the ULL position.Given h5 the low should have been around where the NAM was if not slightly further west since h5 closes off earlier than the NAM correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: CCB on GFS not nearly as robust. People are confusing me now, I'm giving deference to you because I respect credentials.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: People are confusing me now, I'm giving deference to you because I respect credentials.... GFS is a vast improvement. Its been playing catch up from the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I do think temps crash as secondary rapidly takes over. I still would like the primary and secondary to shift slightly further south though. Plenty more shifts to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: April 1, 1997, but a month earlier and a smidge south? It’s the #1 analog on CIPS apparently. That’s always a caution flag for how well around NYC can do. Apparently that CCB didn’t produce despite us being in a good spot. I remember nothing about that storm and from everything I read it was a nothingburger around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That said I would pay attention to the upper air charts more than the QPF. If those dynamics are there, we at least have a solid chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: People are confusing me now, I'm giving deference to you because I respect credentials.... All models going towards CCB, but GFS unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS looks too far East given the ULL position. Agree 4 minutes ago, Enigma said: CCB on GFS not nearly as robust. Gfs is getting there Better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I do think temps crash as secondary rapidly takes over. I still would like the primary and secondary to shift slightly further south though. Plenty more shifts to go. Has very little to do with the secondary... The position of the ULL is the key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: All models going towards CCB, but GFS unimpressive. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Excited for the EURO like a weenie for the first time in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1997...I was in my teens flying out of EWR. Most flights cancelled. Snow/rain mix at EWR around 2pm or so. I think there was a slushy1-2 in for much of CNJ. I believe Sussex county got over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: 1997...I was in my teens flying out of EWR. Most flights cancelled. Snow/rain mix at EWR around 2pm or so. I think there was a slushy1-2 in for much of CNJ. I believe Sussex county got over a foot. 4-1-97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Enigma said: 1997...I was in my teens flying out of EWR. Most flights cancelled. Snow/rain mix at EWR around 2pm or so. I think there was a slushy1-2 in for much of CNJ. I believe Sussex county got over a foot. was extremely sharp cutoff I got stuck in denville nj they had about 10 inches, Hopatcong got around 16 and I believe northern Sussex cty over 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 4-1-97 I am in that small area that saw nothing....no wonder I can't remember it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I am in that small area that saw nothing....no wonder I can't remember it There was about a 5-10 mile radius centered on Manhattan that got less than an inch. Meanwhile N, S, E, W did better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, Enigma said: That's not true Even if it's not snow, you do realize the GFS has over 3 inches QPF on LI, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Enigma said: 1997...I was in my teens flying out of EWR. Most flights cancelled. Snow/rain mix at EWR around 2pm or so. I think there was a slushy1-2 in for much of CNJ. I believe Sussex county got over a foot. I was 10...the snow being so wet and heavy blew a transformer near me about a mile away...lit the sky so bright it was almost like daylight in the middle of the night. My parents thought our neighbor's house was on fire it was so bright, never seen anything like it. Don't know what made it any different than any other transformer explosion but it is definitely one of my most vivid memories of that age. I think we got about 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: There was about a 5-10 mile radius centered on Manhattan that got less than an inch. Meanwhile N, S, E, W did better All I cared about back then was how many flounder I could catch, if the storm didn't affect Raritan Bay, then I didn't care. The flounder fishing has since crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 30 minutes ago, Enigma said: RGEM clearly having thermal issues. It does anytime you have marginal BL conditions. It had the same issue on 2-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: All I cared about back then was how many flounder I could catch, if the storm didn't affect Raritan Bay, then I didn't care. The flounder fishing has since crashed. We haven't been able to actually fish for flounder with the regs, so who knows...they could be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: We haven't been able to actually fish for flounder with the regs, so who knows...they could be back. I can’t buy it anywhere. It’s on the overfished list for like 3-4 years and most stores won’t sell it other than dedicated fish markets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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