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Baroclinic Zone

March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

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11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Likely?  Not sure here, yet.  Probable, sure. And the 1" DIT has alluded to is not a big event by any stretch.  Once we start talking 6-8"+ for the entire SNE area at this point in the year, its a big storm and a strong signal.  NNE doesn't count since they see 6-8" events into May, on the reg.

Agreed.

But I will be surprised if it doesn't snow again...just not sold on a plowable event.

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I guess I just love it when "entitlements" fail ... the presumption unto me-me-me ...  One of my favorite cartoons, ever, is a "Far Side."  The pictorial features two desert desiccated wonderers. They're in tattered rags, bent over a turbid pool under a single palm tree, ...sun searing and bleaming over brow, their foot prints circuitously wending off into the horizon of sand dunes, and one of them has turned head toward the other where instead of drinking the life giving miracle water find, he says... "What ... no cups!"

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Ya Tip...whatever the prevailing feeling is on the boards...you like to see the weather do the exact opposite!   That much is crystal clear!!  

Just when it looks like the weather may break towards mild/warm...you’re right there pointing out why it just may fail!  And you do the same when the weather looks like it might snow as well. 

You love to see the wind taken out of everybody’s sails...no matter if they’re wishing for warmth or snow.  

PORK EM is your style lmao...you’re just as sick as the ones that fool themselves about the weather...you’re just looking for the perpetual screw job with regard to what everyone may be hoping for at a particular point in time.  

Its all cool...everyone has their fetish’s with regard to the Weather. 

 

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya Tip...whatever the prevailing feeling is on the boards...you like to see the weather do the exact opposite!   That much is crystal clear!!  

Just when it looks like the weather may break towards mild/warm...you’re right there pointing out why it just may fail!  And you do the same when the weather looks like it might snow as well. 

You love to see the wind taken out of everybody’s sails...no matter if they’re wishing for warmth or snow.  

PORK EM is your style lmao...you’re just as sick as the ones that fool themselves about the weather...you’re just looking for the perpetual screw job with regard to what everyone may be hoping for at a particular point in time.  

Its all cool...everyone has their fetish’s with regard to the Weather. 

 

I know you think this... you've voiced this before. 

But I can assure you, the enjoying the failure of presumption is a different thing altogether. I'm like that with rich entitlement people too - it's a general outlook matter, that doesn't bear on analysis of the weather. 

I'm always even keeled as far as that goes...or at least aspire to being so. It's just that the daily memes that get generated in here are often, not ;)   They seem to spontaneously grow around a mood or tempo and then re-inforces and is more often less analytic.  That's not a knock - it's called crowd physics. This lot of users is not immune to that force.  Sometimes I get swept away in it, too.  But at other times, what I am putting out there would seem contrarian relative to that.   It's not trolling per se, it just that I'm formulating an opinion about the pattern or the storm ..etc, prior to even coming in here, and I put those observations into my posts - clearly...at some risk to whatever is the tenor of the moment. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'd actually be surprised if I don't see more accumulating snow. We average plenty in April and it looks rather active the next 10 days. But I will continue to sell 8"+ of powder.

The past doesn't predict the future, but offers some idea.  In 19 years, April has brought measurable snow 84% of the time and 1"+ 74%.  Previous 13 years in (less snowy) Gardiner the numbers were 85% and 54%.

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Just now, tamarack said:

The past doesn't predict the future, but offers some idea.  In 19 years, April has brought measurable snow 84% of the time and 1"+ 74%.  Previous 13 years in (less snowy) Gardiner the numbers were 85% and 54%.

Those are abysmal numbers for Gardiner in recent years!

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday night appears to be a nice little snow event in SNE. Perfect timing at night. With 1-2 more events later in the week/weekend 

Yes sir

CMC has a nice snowstorm for next weekend

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday night appears to be a nice little snow event in SNE. Perfect timing at night. With 1-2 more events later in the week/weekend 

Is there more room to amplify this into Bos

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49 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Those are abysmal numbers for Gardiner in recent years!

Are you referring to Gardiner, Maine?  My 1986-98 Aprils there averaged 5.4", or 0.4" more than 1999-2017 at my current location.  The Gardiner co-op, 3 miles north of where I lived and 130' lower (thus about halfway to sea level) averaged 3.6" for both 86-98 and 99-17.  Their average 1886-on is 4.5".  (Side note:  That's the only Maine site for which I've found 3/1888 snow data.  They show 8" of 32(+) paste from that event.)

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Are you referring to Gardiner, Maine?  My 1986-98 Aprils there averaged 5.4", or 0.4" more than 1999-2017 at my current location.  The Gardiner co-op, 3 miles north of where I lived and 130' lower (thus about halfway to sea level) averaged 3.6" for both 86-98 and 99-17.  Their average 1886-on is 4.5".  (Side note:  That's the only Maine site for which I've found 3/1888 snow data.  They show 8" of 32(+) paste from that event.)

Oh yeah-Gardiner Maine.   I’ve been there for work multiple times.  Nice little town.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

The past doesn't predict the future, but offers some idea.  In 19 years, April has brought measurable snow 84% of the time and 1"+ 74%.  Previous 13 years in (less snowy) Gardiner the numbers were 85% and 54%.

We all know it can snow in april, It has many times, Especially up here, Little more difficult at the coast and the coastal plain but not impossible with the right pattern and timing, The last 4 years has yielded a total of 18.6" for april with 7.5" falling last april on the 1st.

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Euro is trying to bring the low up the coast for next weekend but the ridge out west looks a bit flat. Plenty of cold air around.

H5 looks pretty good

Could be a big one

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56 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is trying to bring the low up the coast for next weekend but the ridge out west looks a bit flat. Plenty of cold air around.

H5 looks pretty good

Could be a big one

The odds of a “big one” around 4/10 are very low south of NNE and below 1500 feet.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The odds of a “big one” around 4/10 are very low south of NNE and below 1500 feet.

One has to look at the whole domain space however, and namely at that ...the mass-fields contributing. 

The movement of the negative erstwhile PNA from -3 SD to +1 is a huge ginormous amount of change, and when coupled with a -AO and blocking pearled west to east across the 60th parallel over the Canadian shield, that can offset climo by a considerable margin.

That's also predicated on the idea that these present signals are stable - to which I am less then confident they are.

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One has to look at the whole domain space however, and namely at that ...the mass-fields contributing. 

The movement of the negative erstwhile PNA from -3 SD to +1 is a huge ginormous amount of change, and when coupled with a -AO and blocking pearled west to east across the 60th parallel over the Canadian shield, that can offset climo by a considerable margin.

That's also predicated on the idea that these present signals are stable - to which I am less then confident they are.

Oh there will be a storm but what are the odds of heavy accumulating snow at that point?  That’s why I tend to play the odds until it’s inside of 3-5 days.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

We all know it can snow in april, It has many times, Especially up here, Little more difficult at the coast and the coastal plain but not impossible with the right pattern and timing, The last 4 years has yielded a total of 18.6" for april with 7.5" falling last april on the 1st.

14.1" for those years here.  Last 2 Aprils have been frustrating, first watching SNE get advisory/warning criteria snow at low-mid 20s while we enjoyed dry clouds (perfect ending to an awful snow season), then last year having double-digit crocus crushers forecast for both the 1st and 4th, and getting 5" total from the 2 of them.  In the long term the foothills will catch up, but I doubt it begins this year.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Oh there will be a storm but what are the odds of heavy accumulating snow at that point?  That’s why I tend to play the odds until it’s inside of 3-5 days.

Lol... not terribly high, no  ... however, this particular storm signal has a colder then normal one associated to it, -fwiw..  Perhaps still falling short, but it sure would be a fun scramble and watching professionals scurry to clean up a cold rain forecast...  Anyway, if one wants an April snow fall, this is how you set one up is all.

And, it was as recent as 2005 or perhaps 06 that I recall seeing powder cob-webbing off a flat topped roof at 1pm on April 10th ... it happens.  I'm not saying that's our destiny ...but again, on the fence - not shocked either way.

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On 3/7/2018 at 11:44 PM, Powderboy413 said:

00z GGEM seems to be trying to hit as well

No, it's not. Are you looking in the correct place? The 00z GGEM is practically irrelevant in this situation. 

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