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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Here in the foothills, where late season snow should be more common, 17 of our 19 Aprils here have failed to produce a snowfall greater than 4". 

 

40 minutes ago, tamarack said:

...the odds aren't all that great; my area averages nearly 90"/year, and I've measured only 4 April storms over 4" in 19 years.  (Though the top 3 ranged from 11.2" to 18.5", so biggies - though rare - have happened.)

Well as usual, Tamarack is always offering up fun ways to use one’s snow data, in this case “April storms over 4 inches”.  Our location isn’t particularly snowy in April with the low elevation, but that frequency does seem surprisingly sparse for a place with that snowfall average (could just be a bad stretch I guess).  Anyway, running the numbers I find seven storms of 4” or more in April in my 11 years of data.  Two did fall in the same year, but in any event, the frequency of getting a ≥4” storm in April is around 64% with the data I have thus far.  Interestingly, we’ve had a recent “better than average” run in that department, with April storms of 4” or greater in each of the past four seasons.  We’re therefore probably not “due” this year, although of course the stats don’t really work that way.  If we’re running at that rate down here in the valley though, the numbers for the higher elevations around here have to be up near 100% in frequency for those events.  That’s not actually surprising really, but I’d say that, on top of the deep snowpack, is one of the reasons we like April.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Have not seen anyone claiming that.  However, the odds aren't all that great; my area averages nearly 90"/year, and I've measured only 4 April storms over 4" in 19 years.  (Though the top 3 ranged from 11.2" to 18.5", so biggies - though rare - have happened.)

ORH has only seen 2 snowstorms over 4 inches in the past 15 years in April. April 3, 2016 and then April 4, 2016. Two back to back events. Though Mar 31-Apr 1, 2017 and the same dates in 2011 produced a snowstorm over 4 inches, but the actual snow on April 1st past midnight was under 4 inches.

The period from 1982-1997 though saw 5 April events of 4"+.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH has only seen 2 snowstorms over 4 inches in the past 15 years in April. April 3, 2016 and then April 4, 2016. Two back to back events. Though Mar 31-Apr 1, 2017 and the same dates in 2011 produced a snowstorm over 4 inches, but the actual snow on April 1st past midnight was under 4 inches.

The period from 1982-1997 though saw 5 April events of 4"+.

Three of my 4 came in 2007, the 2 biggies noted above plus the Patriots' Day storm (5.2") - the only event bringing 5" snow AND 5" rain.  The 2011 April Fools storm was 15.1". 

April top 10:  (And I discovered another >4" event, late month in 2002)
18.5"  4-5/07
15.1"  1-2/11 (only 0.1" on the 2nd)
11.2"  12-13/07
5.2"   15-17/07
4.2"   28-29/02
4.0"   5/04
3.6"   17/10  (After getting only 0.6" in March.)
3.5"   9/15
3.5"   1/17
3.3"  5-6/03

Nothing else bigger than 2.5".  However, the #5-10 storms all occurred in different years, making it 8 of 19 with something 3"+.
 

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One tiny caterpillar by the billions, 5 exceptional Noreasters since Oct has equalled catastrophic woodland damage. Now that the snow is gone the forests around here can be seen clearly and its not pretty. Thousands of broken trees, branches,  also with small shrubs split in two. Have to hope for a wet spring and fall, fire forest danger is going to be huge for a while.

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