CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno man.. The GFS is about a pube away from being a wicked storm ... wow. There is a small potent parcel of arctic dynamics pinwheeling around the GL SPV ...and that tries to subsume the coastal wave but just...barely misses doing so... Yep, just commented on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus...can we analyze the troposphere before we start putting up cartoon images of snow fantasy... Sorry Tip, didn't mean to p*ss anyone off, just figured for people on their phones or what not, they could view it. 2M Dew's are decent all the way up to 108 I believe and then go to the mid 30's for eastern areas of CT and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boy if we could only get that to stall a bit further south. That is a potent s/w diving in from Canada. I beat you by a pube - heh... But folks, here's the anatomy of a near miss catastrophic bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Great illustration Tippy. Definitely was an eyebrow raiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Sorry Tip, didn't mean to p*ss anyone off, just figured for people on their phones or what not, they could view it. 2M Dew's are decent all the way up to 108 I believe and then go to the mid 30's for eastern areas of CT and eastward. Ha... nah, it's all good! I'm just a bit done with guess-work snow charts that are typically either inflated or just wrong because their algorithms cannot possibly be sophisticated enough to properly profile a given event for being to generalized in their computational approach... which, the last system was taxing and exhausting enough to begin with? It's like being jaded and then adding insult... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just checking in. Nice miss up here yesterday but I had expected that for days leading up to the storm. Some tease runs that almost got me in the goods but basically a no go. This storm looks better for us CNE/NNE folks. So hard to please everyone across the board. Let's get the Euro on track this PM for some confidence building something major will happen in our general area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Great illustration Tippy. Definitely was an eyebrow raiser. You know ... I'm wondering ...is this the run the Euro latches onto a more Pacific insert through the west .. This and frankly the previous GFS (GGEM for that matter..) carry more of that, where the Euro has had almost none - which is odd. This model, I dunno what's going on with it, but I was not altogether pleased with it's performance as of late ( leave it at that..). Anyway, that's a key component (obviously) in the stream in interaction (if there's going to be any...) If it is indeed stronger like the GFS/GGEM ( and they have been trending stronger) then, it will "entice" (for lack of better word) that N-stream more prodigiously S and that would probably be a more complete phase in that scenario. I suppose it's also possible that there is poor assimilation causing the Pac wave to be too strong in these other guidance' We know the Euro has a completely different smoothing technique with that 4-D boner stuff ..etc... so it may be that it is superior in that assessment? I dunno - but, I was taken aback by the Euro's 00z run being almost entirely uninterested in a system that so many other guidance' have some 6"-10" of blue glory over. But then taking into account its recent performance and then having to rely on the old mantra that past does not reflect the future, it still offers less comfort in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just checking in. Nice miss up here yesterday but I had expected that for days leading up to the storm. Some tease runs that almost got me in the goods but basically a no go. This storm looks better for us CNE/NNE folks. So hard to please everyone across the board. Let's get the Euro on track this PM for some confidence building something major will happen in our general area..... This next one does have the type of track that would probably maximize the number of regions on our sub forum to do well. Doesn't slip due E or anything. Kind of a CT to ME type deal. Might be tough for far SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha... nah, it's all good! I'm just a bit done with guess-work snow charts that are typically either inflated or just wrong because their algorithms cannot possibly be sophisticated enough to properly profile a given event for being to generalized in their computational approach... which, the last system was taxing and exhausting enough to begin with? It's like being jaded and then adding insult... Do you buy the GFS thermals though? I feel like that is as good a track as you can get to lock in any low level cold air for interior southern new england. Edit: Wow btw 12z GGEM is MUCH warmer than GFS. Almost all rain for Southern New England. Tracks low up into eastern most RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The March 12 event is still very much on the table folks... It's got a marked ensemble signature in the mean, and many particular members look like the other definition of "mean". Also, this 12z run of the GFS has a beautiful table setting around the 10th, with strong diving Plains S/W and immediately in its wake there is that +PNAP ridge eruption we discussed earlier. Here's the best part: the heights over Miami are less than 582, and the balanced geostrophic wind velocities are less than 35 kts. Miami rule in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Days and days on the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Do you buy the GFS thermals though? I feel like that is as good a track as you can get to lock in any low level cold air for interior southern new england. It's satisfactory... If you mean within the balance of modeling performance, which is meteorological sensibility meets with climo and junk ? There's nothing really to balk at there. However, part of the met responsibility is not taking things at face value, no matter how sensible things appear. I mean, folks really need to do them selves a solid and completely and utterly cut the last system loose in their psyches, and allow for a fresh perspective, because this pattern this week is really changing away from that which led to yesterday's storm evolution. Part of that new paradigm is, as other's have also noted, a more winter-like thickness tapestry... That has all kinds of feebacks that are better for blue QPF spring snow and stuff. For one, you end up with better UVM maxes near impossible to pin-point at this time lead meso stuff (Coastal fronts... CAD...you name it), and better UVM means better dynamic cooling prooobably not being totally assessed... So, 'buying the thermals' is sort of a loaded question I just like the appeal of that coastal wave, so far... , and reserve to the right to hate the idea of it should that become more obvious to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This next one does have the type of track that would probably maximize the number of regions on our sub forum to do well. Doesn't slip due E or anything. Kind of a CT to ME type deal. Might be tough for far SE areas. Yup. GFS starts snowing here on Wednesday night and continues into Saturday with the upslope. I'd sign up for 12-18" for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Fwiw - WPC seems to echo suspicions of the Euro: "... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 That snow product is purely a function of elevation. May not be a bad way to go given post March 1 any given year, but... do we honestly care about a climo snow forecast from 4 or 5 days out? I don't - it's not seeing like ...80 % of whatever physics are causing it to snow (or rain) at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I would not worry about the EPO too much heading into March. As the wavelengths shorten, those correlations start to lose some merit. Either Rockies ridging or blocking up north will do. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I am not all too familiar with the ICON model, although it has done a decent job down south this year. It looks more like GFS at 12z wrt surface low track and not warm like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Gefs is nice for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wow, that GFS evolution was damn close to something awesome. If this works out, to borrow Ray's analogy, it'll be like you've finally got her clothes off, but you see her father's headlights in the driveway, before realizing it's just somebody turning around. Business time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That snow product is purely a function of elevation. May not be a bad way to go given post March 1 any given year, but... do we honestly care about a climo snow forecast from 4 or 5 days out? I don't - it's not seeing like ...80 % of whatever physics are causing it to snow (or rain) at all Well yeah, I'm looking at it for the mountains. IMO the GFS is way too elevational dependent with the QPF spread after its grid changed. It'll always highlights heavier precipitation where it thinks the terrain is, snow map aside. Just look at it for VT/NH and its just a rolling series of maxes and mins from mountains to valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 GEFS look sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Sweet wintry run overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: But of a tired old stereotype of SF though Sorry to offend your San Fran friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: Sorry to offend your San Fran friends. You should probably avoid posting things that other posters may find offensive. Like every other gathering of people of a particular interest, we have our share of lgbt members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: You should probably avoid posting things that other posters may find offensive. Like every other gathering of people of a particular interest, we have our share of lgbt members. Everybody is offended by something these days. I apologize just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 It is a good thing we was preoccupied with yesterdays dud....Wed system doesnt feel like a LR fantasy storm. 0z euro op was out to lunch, probably still licking its wounds confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 It's almost like Wednesday's system formulates its self into a 50/50 low - credit Dave T from back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: Everybody is offended by something these days. I apologize just the same. Hey no worries here. I wasn’t offended, I just thought it was a tired old stereotype. And I appreciate what Jerry said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Euros gonna be pretty amped up for Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z euro looks much improved. Pops the low just southeast of Atlantic City at 96. Thermals look very good for all of southern new england at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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