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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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EAST... A COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL BRING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OFF THE EAST COAST THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUE-FRI. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH HOW (AND WHERE) THE MANY PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST INTERACT BUT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS QUITE LOUD FOR AT LEAST AN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC (AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS) INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST, A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS FROM NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD.

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19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As long as the ensembles have it, it’s coming. And they do. Should they lose it today and continue tonight.. then it’s over. 12 z should start the reverse 

Ensembles will always have a few weenie members. Bit of a weak signal. Stll give it a day, but if it does not come back at 12z, we may be cooked.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles will always have a few weenie members. Bit of a weak signal. Stll give it a day, but if it does not come back at 12z, we may be cooked.

There's a decent signal on the GEFS for the second wave, and that's 5 days out. 12z isn't going to provide much more clarity on that one. Wave one, sure.

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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

There's a decent signal on the GEFS for the second wave, and that's 5 days out. 12z isn't going to provide much more clarity on that one. Wave one, sure.

The wave spacing kinda sucks. There isn’t a lot of room for the 2nd one to amplify. 

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We want the first wave to slow down/deepen out west. That will bring this north and allow wave 2 to catch up to it enough...the other option is to have it weaken so much that is doesn't really inhibit wave 2 but I think that is quite unlikely. It's a bowling ball so the chances of it becoming weakened/sheared out are much lower than it slowing down and amplifying. 

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Dont think we really know until 0z tonight or even 12z tomorrow.   It is kind of funny watching the up and down emotions on here though... The past few storms have been duds here... So expect this to be no different.. I still got a few inches on the ground though and can drive 3 miles and theres almost nothing.so i guess i should atleast be grateful for that :)

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