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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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13 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Sorry

That was a question

I would guess s vt Has some 40" depths

Guess most natural totals around 2.5 k are near 4 feet In above mentioned spots

Officially we have two 48" depths reported. Brassua Dam and Moosehead, which are roughly the same area anyway.

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8 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

I know it is not easy while on the sled with all of your gear on, but if you can grab a few pics that would be great.

Between Old Forge and the Tug Hill area in NYS the state trails are open until either 4/1 or 4/15.  After that they close them, and then it's only private trails that are open if there is snow.

How does the trail system work in Maine as far as who has control of them, and when the closing times are scheduled?

I have all kinds of pics, Just don't know which thread to place them in..........lol

In a nut shell, Trails open on Dec 15-April 15, But you can still ride off trail until the snow is gone:

Maine's Interconnected Trail System (ITS) is provided to snowmobilers through the joint effort of the Maine Snowmobile Association and the Snowmobile Division of the Maine Bureau of Parks and Lands, Department of Conservation under the direction of the MSA Trails Committee. The trails themselves are created through the efforts of the snowmobile clubs, the Snowmobile Division, local municipalities, supporting businesses and the many landowners throughout the state of Maine who generously allow access to sledders.

Much of the registration money goes to the Snowmobile Trail Fund of the Department of Conservation, Bureau of Parks and Lands where it is distributed through grants to snowmobile clubs, towns, etc. to develop, construct and maintain snowmobile trails and assist with the purchase of grooming equipment; a portion is credited to the Department of Inland Fisheries & Wildlife for snowmobile enforcement and related expenses, some goes to the state's general fund and, in the case of Maine residents, a percentage is distributed to their municipality. In a number of cases, the municipalities will return those funds to the local snowmobile club to assist with their trail activities.

Some of the best food you can eat is stopping at one of the snowmobile club houses along the trails for breakfast or lunch, For most of the time cheap money or donations and great home cooked meals.

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2 hours ago, allgame830 said:

Ummm.... huh..... lol

You know what, the euro was crap with The  last System. One of the last models to catch on to the widescale Impacts of This.

Seems mets knee jerk to rush in and find some perspective to look thru to maintain the euro is their life raft when forecasting but its struggling. Its struggling inside day 3.5 .

 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You know what, the euro was crap with these last two Systems. One of the last models to catch on to the widescale Impacts of these.

Seems mets knee jerk to rush in and find some perspective to look thru to maintain the euro is their life raft when forecasting but its struggling. Its struggling inside day 3.5 .

It's been too progressive all winter. Almost every system has seen the Euro correct NW as you get closer to the event.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm just going by Pope's comments. I thought the antecedent airmass looks cold enough even here, but it is mid-March now and I've had enough unpleasant surprises this month to get my hopes up.

In 3 noreasters this month , i have had over 5 inches. 

Pathetic

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I mean the model criticism is not unwarranted.

We did just go through a period of poorer model predictability (given the Pacific jet has been in an equatorward/retracted state for a while that isn't surprising). The Euro still "won" the past week, but around the period of the storm the GFS popped in for one day to win the anomaly correlations (when looking at day 5 progs). At day 3 the GFS crapped itself, but the Ukie bested the Euro. So while overall the model doesn't suck, it's still #1, in this event is did seem to hit a speed bump.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Rain? You had all snow last 2 storms no?

Yes, the unpleasant surprise with the last storm was not the precip type, but its lack of persistence and intensity. 3.5" is a bitter pill to swallow when guidance is giving you 1" QPF. I'm just keeping my expectations squarely in check. It certainly could surprise, but CTRV in mid to late March is not a great place for snow.

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