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Baroclinic Zone

March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

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If the shortwaves cooperate within the chaotic flow...it is possible we try and make a run at March 2001 depths in parts of interior SNE as we approach April. Obviously things have to go right...we need the 3/21 storm to hit, then the 3/24-5 storm to hit.

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6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe one more chance at a good storm, remember for some of us yesterday we might have been in Tulsa OK

 As currently modeled, I like the look of Monday for us better than I did this last storm.

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18 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe one more chance at a good storm, remember for some of us yesterday we might have been in Tulsa OK

Yesterday was like seeing all your friends go home with VS models and you're stuck with a girl that reminds you vaguely of Steve Buscemi.

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17 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe one more chance at a good storm, remember for some of us yesterday we might have been in Tulsa OK

Why don’t you get out of the Pioneer Valley? It’s probably the worst place in NE to live if you like snow. Too far from the ocean , lacks moisture, and downslopes. . 

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Could use a break! These past few storms have done enough ready for spring Clem up and there is going to be a lot in this area. Have three pine limbs dangling on my power lines (can't believe they held) several others and some whole trees down in the hood again. Looking at the forecast winds look to not subside much over the next few days. To be honest as much as I love snow hope this one goes OTS.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why don’t you get out of the Pioneer Valley? It’s probably the worst place in NE to live if you like snow. Too far from the ocean , lacks moisture, and downslopes. . 

and with a 45-50 inch annual avg something has to go right once in a while

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21 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe one more chance at a good storm, remember for some of us yesterday we might have been in Tulsa OK

west to east mover through the OV is usually good here, like the Superbowl 2015 storm, but climo and the close pass argue for BL issues IMO.  Elevation event.   And that's with a 00z euro or GFS like track.  HP ok but not great for bleed.  

New euro might phase too quickly, we'll see in a second.  Then would all be a moot point.

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

west to east mover through the OV is usually good here, like the Superbowl 2015 storm, but climo and the close pass argue for BL issues IMO.  Elevation event.   And that's with a 00z euro or GFS like track.  HP ok but not great for bleed.  

New euro might phase too quickly, we'll see in a second.  Then would all be a moot point.

Nah, SLP is going to track further south this run, Northern stream s/w is weaker.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro looking good at 12z Tues.  Storm looks to be re-developing off the Delmarva.  Nice H to the north.

I forgot about the time change... First day back at work since it changed.  I was sick Monday and Tuesday was a snow day.  I was used to seeing Euro pbp after my students left.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

With that cold high there, we’ll be fine with that look. Fresh cold. Stongest cold we’ve had in weeks prior to a storm

OK then

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

With that cold high there, we’ll be fine with that look. Fresh cold. Stongest cold we’ve had in weeks prior to a storm

But it's not on the Euro.  850s are warm. +1 to -1C.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems fine for SNE

Euro advects a lot of warmer air int he midlevels ahead of the system...so it becomes problematic, esp south of pike. That is verbatim on this run. It obviously doesn't matter much being 6 days out, but that is not something we'd want to see going forward.

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11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Close enough to warrant tracking, even for the coast. As it stands, too warm south of pike but easily correctable this far out

Yeah... there are some good things working for the system. A marginal operation run at 6 days shouldn’t really sway anyone. Has the look of an event that could produce. 

CMC and ICON showed that.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro advects a lot of warmer air int he midlevels ahead of the system...so it becomes problematic, esp south of pike. That is verbatim on this run. It obviously doesn't matter much being 6 days out, but that is not something we'd want to see going forward.

Nothing wrong with a late season icestorm either , though with a redevelopment and the cold HP,, you’d lean colder profile to the coast 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro advects a lot of warmer air int he midlevels ahead of the system...so it becomes problematic, esp south of pike. That is verbatim on this run. It obviously doesn't matter much being 6 days out, but that is not something we'd want to see going forward.

LOL, those snow graphics look awful when compared to the upper levels.

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Right over the benchmark. 850/925 profiles below freezing throughout for ORH, KTOLL, probably not so good on coast and in the valley south of Northampton, but if they might score double digits.

How do I know this? Magic. Could happen. Might not/probably not. Other than telling us a storm might be coming it seems like playing with the models this far out isn't much better than intelligent wishcasting.

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Still early, but here are furthest extent N of 850 and 925 temps, and snow accum.  Still a good hit in Boston area despite some rain.  Snow accum. in W MA and VT not all from the storm.  Some of that is due to the upcoming snow squalls and general light snow in those areas.

download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031412download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031412download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031412

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