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Baroclinic Zone

March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

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Yup Bob - ...real close to firing off a new thread for this threat ...and I use the word "threat" there deliberately, because though I tend to cringe how that word gets ominously over-played and applied to every cumulus cloud that goes on around here... in this case, more than a cumulus ... Teleconnectors really like that D6-9 range, as well, there is a marked presentation in the majority of GEFs members (I've seen...). But also, this thing tomorrow into Saturday may be a big enough deal that anything D6-ish that adds punishment would be enhanced - 

I'm about 50 % confidence for an event in there.  

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I'd give it until Sunday....when this first mess gets out of here.  Besides, the next run it'll be gone anyway.  If it's still there on the Ensembles after this one come Sunday..fire it up imo.  Before that is just not reliable enough due to the fact that everything has been SO Fickle this season.  

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I'd give it until Sunday....when this first mess gets out of here.  Besides, the next run it'll be gone anyway.  If it's still there on the Ensembles after this one come Sunday..fire it up imo.  Before that is just not reliable enough due to the fact that everything has been SO Fickle this season.  

I'd say that is well less than median potential ... 

D6 - 9 has a presentation in both the EPS and GEFs mean, and in fact, the GEFs is pretty dramatic for this sort of time range at that - 

It could.. .but, less likely in this case.  Plus, the surrounding hemispheric mass fields imply it should be active in there - tele support and gunk. 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup Bob - ...real close to firing off a new thread for this threat ...and I use the word "threat" there deliberately, because though I tend to cringe how that word gets ominously over-played and applied to every cumulus cloud that goes on around here... in this case, more than a cumulus ... Teleconnectors really like that D6-9 range, as well, there is a marked presentation in the majority of GEFs members (I've seen...). But also, this thing tomorrow into Saturday may be a big enough deal that anything D6-ish that adds punishment would be enhanced - 

I'm about 50 % confidence for an event in there.  

I'm just playing out in my mind if that ULL retrogrades enough to capture the one exiting the coast, you are looking at a crippling blizzard.

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm just playing out in my mind if that ULL retrogrades enough to capture the one exiting the coast, you are looking at a crippling blizzard.

You lost me there... 

I think if anything I miss-understood the purpose of that discourse at the time.   

I am "looking" at potential.. and this case, a potential coastal storm that may be adding insult to an injured coast line - so "maybe" needs a bit of sensitive attention for this sort of time lead.  

Not sure that means ... 'crippling blizzard'   

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Man, everybody is so wrapped up with the POS rainstorm today...missing the monster that is lurking in its shadow.

I'm saying the same thing to myself man. This has some definite potential.

Big time storm on the 12z GFS for southern new england. HR 120 has the low form south of Long Island. Heavy snow inundating all of CT and RI.

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I'm saying the same thing to myself man. This has some definite potential.

We would have a 50 page storm thread already for it if it wasn't for today.

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

We would have a 50 page storm thread already for it if it wasn't for today.

992 just southeast of Montauk 18z Wednesday and 989 into the Gulf of Maine at 0z Thursday. Boy do I miss living up that way. I may leave a day earlier than I was going to just to get there and enjoy it lol.

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10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Man, everybody is so wrapped up with the POS rainstorm today...missing the monster that is lurking in its shadow.

I'm not..lol, I've been well aware of next weeks potential, Just following along the models at this lead

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18 hours ago, JC-CT said:

Tip is certainly right, that really is quite the signal on the ensembles.

It's impressive ...and over night every single one of the freebie (12 members), everyone showing a signficant storm ..even down to the detail level is fantastically agreed upon for D6!  amazingly well actually...  The majority have bulk QPF on the inside of a 540 dm thickness contour that is E of Boston.  As a 100,000 foot base-line requirement for winter enthusiasts ...that's where you wanna be. Seeing it in the majority of ensemble members? That is DEFINITELY where you wanna be.  

Even the Euro and GGEM have their own variations ..but everyone's carrying an even mid week.   Lastly, it fits into the general teleconnector mode/modalities.  

 

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12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Man, everybody is so wrapped up with the POS rainstorm today...missing the monster that is lurking in its shadow.

Ha ha... well, let's not go too dramatic there.  I think it is an impressive signal for storm occurrence - I suggest leaving it at that. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... well, let's not go too dramatic there.  I think it is an impressive signal for storm occurrence - I suggest leaving it at that. 

I know lol. But I think there is a pretty high potential there. 

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I'll say, the 3/7 signal has been very persistent. I remember posting about how potent the signal was on ensemble guidance about 2-3 days ago in this thread. (or maybe it was the waning pages of the Feb pattern thread)

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll say, the 3/7 signal has been very persistent. I remember posting about how potent the signal was on ensemble guidance about 2-3 days ago in this thread. (or maybe it was the waning pages of the Feb pattern thread)

I think it was the other one because i had mentioned i had interest in that period as well.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll say, the 3/7 signal has been very persistent. I remember posting about how potent the signal was on ensemble guidance about 2-3 days ago in this thread. (or maybe it was the waning pages of the Feb pattern thread)

 

You did ... 

But, understandably ... folks wanted if not needed to be pre-occupied by this thing today. 

That one next week (to me) has better chance for meeting with winter enthusiasm to be frank.  It's got a better antecedent air mass - as you we can clearly tell.. and one that sort of makes sense considering the persistent albeit weak cold sourcing in the wake of this this with, most importantly, less recovery. 

Of course, that's the way the synoptics look now and as you say however, have for some time. 

I don't even think the signal for D10 is all that unimpressive for this time range in these GEF members, either. I haven't seen the EPS on either - perhaps Scott could lend some insight there? I think he has access to his companies products. 

This thing today was sort of playing in a poker game with a Mechanic as the dealer really ... The PNAP was f'n this system right in the can from the get go... What? we had 55 to 60 F daily highs since Monday or whatever. Which, admittedly, isn't a big deal if you have modest sourcing and sufficient dynamics. I think this one is missing one of those two.   Anyway, next week seems to have the benefit of a better PNAP and the SE ridge, unlike this one, really may actually be in reality less of a mitigation to cold scenarios overall... just a hunch. 

I just wanna add for folks... It may be hard to envision base on conditioning via the recent weeks, but powdery bombs can happen into the first week of April. In fact, I remember (2005?) pulling up outside a Kinkos to get copies on like April 10 and snow was blowing off the flat roof of the building in front me..  

I don't want it to, no - I like summer and early warmth. But keeping personal druthers aside - march is not a winter month :axe:

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WPC was honking decently in the overnight discussion.  Looks to me like a much clearer, simply set up that is well-supported by modeling.  And looks like one that comes up and doesn't slip east.

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12z CMC very similar to GFS depiction as well, albeit a tad farther southeast with the LP. 992 tracking over Nantucket. Another check for major winter storm for southern england. CT/Eastern NY winners thus far at 12z.

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

WPC was honking decently in the overnight discussion.  Looks to me like a much clearer, simply set up that is well-supported by modeling.  And looks like one that comes up and doesn't slip east.

Heh, ur right .. didn't even think to check with them ...

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, ur right .. didn't even think to check with them ...

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

I've been accused of humping them, and I embrace that label.  When they are sold on something in the medium range, it is a good sign.  I think they do a good job over there, though they are conservative.  Then tend to not change course quickly and look at a few cycles of models when they do their maps.

How is the overall set-up?  Is there anything to slow it down?

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I've been accused of humping them, and I embrace that label.  When they are sold on something in the medium range, it is a good sign.  I think they do a good job over there, though they are conservative.  Then tend to not change course quickly and look at a few cycles of models when they do their maps.

How is the overall set-up?  Is there anything to slow it down?

oh, crap i've always been a fan of the PMD office... thing is, there's fears it could go away with funding being channeled into automations and stuff, but frankly, god forbid - 

there's no match to human touch.  it's like they can't get A.I. in drones in the military that can make "human" distinctions on the battle field .. you know?  the difference between a Afgan sheep herder and a Taliban operative take a kind of cinemaitc understanding of what is there and it's not entirely clear the automation can do that.  

The NAO is less obviously still in play, but it is. With less SE ridge (finally..in reality) to speed up the flow over top, systems coming into the ~ 80 W region over mid latitudes will tend to slowdown and not cut early.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh, crap i've always been a fan of the PMD office... thing is, there's fears it could go away with funding me channeled into automations and stuff, but frankly, god forbid - 

there's no match to human touch.  it's like they can't get A.I. in drones in the military that can make "human" distinctions on the battle field .. you know?  the difference between a Afgan sheep herder and a Taliban operative take a kind of cinemaitc understanding of what is there and it's not entirely clear the automation can do that.  

The NAO is less obviously still in play, but it is. With less SE ridge (finally..in reality) to speed up the flow over top, systems coming into the ~ 80 W region over mid latitudes will tend to slowdown and not cut early.

Maybe this can be our one run of the mill big new england noreaster for the season....you know, of moderate duration, developing off of NJ a track tucked in and into the Gulf of Maine, mixing issues in far SE New England, interior areas getting 1-2 ft.

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25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Maybe this can be our one run of the mill big new england noreaster for the season....you know, of moderate duration, developing off of NJ a track tucked in and into the Gulf of Maine, mixing issues in far SE New England, interior areas getting 1-2 ft.

Yeah... I was just musing with another Met ...  today could and probably will be the more powerful of the two events, but coastal flood concerns notwithstanding...that one next week being way more sensibly impacting because,  one ... it is arriving into a circumstantially cooler total domain, and two ... less inhibition from the ridge in the south.  Thus, in total... moderate strength system moving slow does way more cryo damage for duration.  

Not to get too hung up in details .. but at risk I'll mention that it has a Gulf tap, so ... that WCB already being established and integrated as a jet structure into the secondary-Miller B processing...  it could precipitate heavier relative to the storms strength.  I guess another QPF bomb to put in simply. 

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