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Baroclinic Zone

March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

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43 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

06z GFS is a total weenie fest.

Yea completely agree. I lived in CT for over 25 years and moved to VA several years back. I will be back up next week from Wed-Sun and it is looking like 4X4 will be necessary. Two threats back to back for middle and late next week if GFS is correct in it's depiction. 

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6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a warm coastal with storm 2.

Very nice for the interior but not for the coast.

This amazes me.

-AO. Check

-NAO. Check

-EPO. Check

Rising PNA. Check

MJO in colder phases. Check

Result. Rain. WTF.

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This amazes me.

-AO. Check

-NAO. Check

-EPO. Check

Rising PNA. Check

MJO in colder phases. Check

Result. Rain. WTF. GW

.. yanking ur chain, but yeah...I understand your frustration as a winter enthusiast... 

However, we have been spoiled as a sub-forum community for a number of years, conditioned into believing that coastal = snow ? It certainly seems that way in the collective tenor, posting content, and the 'between the dialogue' meanings over time. 

Truth be told, we get rainy coastals here too ;)  Not trying to be condescending in saying that, either, but, those indexes don't really preclude rain vs snow or vice versa. There's almost like an 'entitlement' for lack of better word, that gets associated to them, but it doesn't work that way.  

-AO means favored cold delivery to the middle latitudes.  However, the AO domain is draped over the entire cap of the geographic pole, evenly.. in all directions. The -AO and/or +AO distinction at any given time, does not guarantee that your region is benefiting from the cold(warm) respectively. You can lose at Black Jack with 20 pts showing.  -AO with blocking situated/associated that happens to not favor your region ...you could even be warmer than normal. 

To some lesser degree but still valid to say, the -NAO is fickle in that way. It can be east and/or west based, and either has a marked different correlation on the temperatures over western Europ vs eastern North America.  In this case, the NAO blocking started out east-based and careened across the N Atlantic (presently) ...before modeled to decay into the westerlies post our storm's evolution late this week. The fixed position of the -NAO in either case correlates differently, but so too (most likely) does a block in motion.  Very complex..  NW Europe was cold and stormy over the last week, probably in association with this block being east based at first.   

-EPO is more dependable (perhaps), but even it can be more west of Alaska vs the NW Territories...  but the -EPO covers both blocking positions, each again effecting the circulation down stream  differently.   

The PNA is a truly ginormous domain space... so big in fact that it can be in a phase state and not correlated well over mid latitudes of North America.. Usually it does, but if a large part of the domain is in flux it may not readily manifest over us until planetary wave adjusting has had time.  ...

Point of all this, it's a game of probabilities... You want that list like you posted, but it shouldn't be a point of frustration if you understand these conditional attributes and how they affect regions differently. 

  • Thanks 1

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54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

.. yanking ur chain, but yeah...I understand your frustration as a winter enthusiast... 

However, we have been spoiled as a sub-forum community for a number of years, conditioned into believing that coastal = snow ? It certainly seems that way in the collective tenor, posting content, and the 'between the dialogue' meanings over time. 

Truth be told, we get rainy coastals here too ;)  Not trying to be condescending in saying that, either, but, those indexes don't really preclude rain vs snow or vice versa. There's almost like an 'entitlement' for lack of better word, that gets associated to them, but it doesn't work that way.  

-AO means favored cold delivery to the middle latitudes.  However, the AO domain is draped over the entire cap of the geographic pole, evenly.. in all directions. The -AO and/or +AO distinction at any given time, does not guarantee that your region is benefiting from the cold(warm) respectively. You can lose at Black Jack with 20 pts showing.  -AO with blocking situated/associated that happens to not favor your region ...you could even be warmer than normal. 

To some lesser degree but still valid to say, the -NAO is fickle in that way. It can be east and/or west based, and either has a marked different correlation on the temperatures over western Europ vs eastern North America.  In this case, the NAO blocking started out east-based and careened across the N Atlantic (presently) ...before modeled to decay into the westerlies post our storm's evolution late this week. The fixed position of the -NAO in either case correlates differently, but so too (most likely) does a block in motion.  Very complex..  NW Europe was cold and stormy over the last week, probably in association with this block being east based at first.   

-EPO is more dependable (perhaps), but even it can be more west of Alaska vs the NW Territories...  but the -EPO covers both blocking positions, each again effecting the circulation down stream  differently.   

The PNA is a truly ginormous domain space... so big in fact that it can be in a phase state and not correlated well over mid latitudes of North America.. Usually it does, but if a large part of the domain is in flux it may not readily manifest over us until planetary wave adjusting has had time.  ...

Point of all this, it's a game of probabilities... You want that list like you posted, but it shouldn't be a point of frustration if you understand these conditional attributes and how they affect regions differently. 

Thanks

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

.. yanking ur chain, but yeah...I understand your frustration as a winter enthusiast... 

Except not. Year after year of all time record warmth and we thought we wouldn't get touched by it?

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So the torch of winter is being taken up by the always capricious and often mercurial month of "Morch" (though we have a couple of downright frigid March's recently).

Well morch on March or whatever... 

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This winter has tracked quite closely to 1983-1984 up in our area...both weak Ninas too...our December was colder this year and January a little warmer....but the theme was both winters had cold first half and then a furnace in February (Feb '84 is actually ORH warmest Feb on record)....but then the tide turned in March with blocking and snow events. I don't see us matching the cold of Mar '84 but we could def get the snow events...maybe more like a Mar '58...where temps were near or even above avg that month but the snow was prolific due to blocking.

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9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This winter has tracked quite closely to 1983-1984 up in our area...both weak Ninas too...our December was colder this year and January a little warmer....but the theme was both winters had cold first half and then a furnace in February (Feb '84 is actually ORH warmest Feb on record)....but then the tide turned in March with blocking and snow events. I don't see us matching the cold of Mar '84 but we could def get the snow events...maybe more like a Mar '58...where temps were near or even above avg that month but the snow was prolific due to blocking.

Yea, '84 was high on my analog list..def. mentioned March '84.

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I am going to be stuck at 2.5 inches below average aren't I?

Well, will be only the 5th below average snowfall winter this century!

As for the teleconnections, blocking remains in place till about the 20th. However, the EPO goes strongly positive on the 9th on both GEFS and EPS. Our chance to score till the 9th?

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Retrograding ULL phasing with ULL exiting Mid-Atlantic coast and another piece of energy ever further south exiting off SC coast.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_28.thumb.png.d33d7696e9f21a6dd3fd860d080dd4dd.png

March 93 redux?

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