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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

 Does the pattern show higher potential, in terms of the set up, than perhaps the solutions and individual members do?  Or is the pattern tepid too?

Have you looked at individual gefs members for last few runs. 

Nice potential where you are.

With the article earthlight Posted there is plenty of potential on east coast. Pattern is not forecast to be tepid.

Question is what does Plenty mean in April and does one Of the pieces to this good look fall apart and not come back.

This is still 6-10 Days out and may see two Storms imo.

Folks lets .

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Have you looked at individual gefs members for last few runs. 

Nice potential where you are.

With the article earthlight Posted there is plenty of potential on east coast. Pattern is not forecast to be tepid.

Question is what does Plenty mean in April and does one Of the pieces to this good look fall apart and not come back.

This is still 6-10 Days out and may see two Storms imo.

Folks lets stop dreaming its over.

Couple of weenies in here not reading signals correctly . Let em burn 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I said this a couple weeks ago ...when it looked sort of like the bust storm would be the last chance then, be leery of the models regressing seasonality every three or so cycles. 

The thing that makes it - maybe - different this time is in the "2nd differential" in the means.  Meaning ... buried in the inconsistency in both the operational means and their respective ensemble mass-fields is some semblance that favors an correction/amplitude signal over the next 10 days. 

However, as others have noted ... that doesn't  necessarily equate to snow, much less (gosh forbid) interesting Meteorology associated with seasonal change. Which ...we are in. 

50 to 62 F highs for three days prior to falling back to what probably will prove an over-sold cold pattern (perhaps more like "seasonally below average") is spring incarnate for this region's climatology ...really from the Del Marva up to Car. Maine.  I am curious how the psychology of this reveals perspectives when looking backward/retrospect - say two months from now.  Like, are we going to suffer the typical mantra of "winter seemed to go straight to summer this year" ? 

I hear that every year, over and over, ...when we may have very well strung numerous days either together, or enough of them at other times, with temps around 60 for a high.. And I'm forced then to reconsider,  ...what IS spring then?   

I'm just op-ed'ing here but ... It seems we live in an era where anything shy of idealism seems to violate some crushing ultimatum and must be deemed an utter failure. I think it's cultural, literally at scales of society, en masse individuals are being conditioned into believing "what I want" carries the same weight in sanctity as one of the Ten Commandments.  Therein, it seems convenience of modern technology's feed-back into the 'method' of every day living, it arouses delusion of the very nature of reality ... like reality is in servitude.  SO, the weather can't be inconvenient. 

Maybe ... but the water cooler at the office has some fun eave's drop discussions these days, regardless of topic.  When it comes to the weather and the mantra of spring failure, f if we are supposed to get 72/45 from now until June 1 in order to be spring, ... When and why did that expectation ever get substantiated? 

Reality pixie dust for one's tea: "Spring" from the upper mid Atlantic region to northern New England is a movie about, rain and cold mist! Weee.  Followed by the award winning climate documentary,  schit stuffed down throats . All occasionally interrupted by unusual stretches of mild to even sometimes even warm periods, far less frequent then the former. And yes ...even the occasional big snow storm!  Cool to warm, wet to dry, and sometimes white.   

From small-talks in the launch lines of cafeterias to posters in here, one will oft' hear, 'the pattern doesn't look very spring like'   WRONG.  What the pattern doesn't really look like, is one tht placates one's particular fantasies.  There is an important distinction there. 

 

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