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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Clouds matter a lot for April, and being on the NW fringe does not help ward off that sun angle. 

True, though we lost out mainly due to low precip.  However, in the cold storm of 2016, when ORH was setting low max records, I could find only one Maine station (BGR) as mild as our high of 29 that day - cloudy all day but with the sun button always visible and zero flakes.

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55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Years with accumulating snow in April at ORH since 2000:

2000, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.

 

Now, some of them were barely anything...2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015 were under an inch IIRC. But still measurable. Though 2002 also had one in May that dropped around 4-5 inches up near WaWa.

Yeah. I figured I missed a few. I didn’t realize there were that many though. 

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6 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We've had accumulating snow in April probably 5-8 times at my house since 1998.  Some have been pretty decent.

That being said, I am thinking this is pretty much it after the weekend.   I will enjoy eating crow, though

It was a great run, February was a rocky road but overall, It was a "Good" winter, Time to turn the page after this weekend.

4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm sorry for giving hope to an event that no longer shows signs of happening, I will try to back off future events, I need to learn to not jump onto every chance

 

3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It looks like ocean effect snows enhance the precip shield as it reaches SE MA on Saturday/Sunday, coastal low makes the closest approach on Monday

That lasted about one hour.

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8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro weeklies show more snow coming through the 1st week of April.

 

Looks like a very delayed spring 

Week 4 was fine. Don’t forget blues at 500 in April can be above normal in lower elevations due to mixing and downslope dandy days. My guess is second half of April moderates. 

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Might have to watch late tomorrow aftn and night. Some guidance has a couple of real narrow, but potent bands of precip. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" or perhaps a localized higher amount of it persists. This will be in ern areas, but looks to spread west and SW to ORH and TOL too.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might have to watch late tomorrow aftn and night. Some guidance has a couple of real narrow, but potent bands of precip. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" or perhaps a localized higher amount of it persists. This will be in ern areas, but looks to spread west and SW to ORH and TOL too.

I like the look for a sneaky little event in spots. Pretty cold aloft, so could have a little instability to work with too.

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I like the look for a sneaky little event in spots. Pretty cold aloft, so could have a little instability to work with too.

I have to look back, but might be a few similarities to the event back in mid March 2015 that broke the snow record at Logan. 

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Was checking some of the soundings and we get total totals (TT) as high as mid 50s as the trough rotates down. Def some good instability there so we'll have to watch for some localized areas of heavy snow. Def some norlun-esque properties to it...the only thing is it doesn't have the residence time of a typical norlun event.

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